Aerospace Engineering Commons^™

Raising Public Awareness On Space Themes: Analysis Of Brazilian Space Policy Using Data From Google Trends, Andrea Felippe Cabello, Michele Melo

Space and Defense

This study examines whether Brazil’s national space policy goal of increasing public awareness of space activities has been met, using Google Trends data as a proxy for public interest. While public perception surveys are scarce outside the United States, web-based data provide a cost-effective and timely alternative for gauging public engagement. The authors analyzed two decades (2004–2024) of Brazilian search activity related to space topics, institutions, technologies, companies, and missions. Results show no clear upward trend in public interest, suggesting that Brazil’s stated policy objectives of raising awareness have not yet translated into measurable outcomes. Although searches related to government …

Costly Signals In Space: Increasing Credibility Via Strategic Disclosure, Wendy N. Whitman Cobb

Space and Defense

As space becomes an increasingly vital domain for national security, debates persist about how much secrecy should surround U.S. military space programs. This article argues that the strategic declassification and disclosure of selected space capabilities can strengthen U.S. deterrence by enhancing the credibility of deterrent threats. Drawing from theories of costly signaling and audience costs, the paper introduces strategic disclosure as a novel form of costly signal. Such disclosure imposes bureaucratic and operational costs while exposing capabilities to potential adversary countermeasures—thereby demonstrating resolve and seriousness of intent. In tandem, greater public transparency about space programs cultivates informed domestic audiences capable …

Space And Defense Vol. 16 No. 2 Editor's Note, Damon Coletta

Space and Defense

No abstract provided.

Space And Defense Vol. 16 No. 2 Table Of Contents, Editors Space And Defense

Space and Defense

No abstract provided.

Space And Defense Vol. 16 No. 2 Front Matter, Editors Space And Defense

Space and Defense

No abstract provided.

Space & Defense Volume 16 Issue 2 Fall 2025 (Whole Issue), Editors Space And Defense

Space and Defense

No abstract provided.

Defending Nato’S Northern Flank: Power Projecting And Military Operations, Nate Ostdiek

Space and Defense

This review evaluates Defending NATO’s Northern Flank: Power Projection and Military Operations, edited by Lon Strauss and Njord Wegge. The volume offers a comprehensive assessment of NATO’s evolving Arctic posture, combining doctrinal analysis, historical context, and alliance dynamics. Contributions examine Russia’s military strategy, U.S. Arctic policy, and intra-alliance complexities involving Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands. While the anthology provides valuable insights into NATO’s strategic challenges, it notably underrepresents Canada’s role. Overall, it stands as a timely and rigorous contribution to understanding Arctic security and NATO’s internal decision-making amid rising geopolitical competition.

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Modeling Nato Joint Warfighting Through Space Combat Simulations, Grant Nehls, Apoorva Somani

Space and Defense

This article investigates NATO’s dependence on space systems in joint warfighting and explores the use of simulation to quantify degradation effects. Using a custom-built AFSIM model of a NATO Arctic operation, the study demonstrates how GNSS spoofing and crosslink jamming undermine data integrity, commander trust, and strike execution—even without kinetic losses. Results show that partial degradations can cause mission failure through decision paralysis. By moving beyond binary modeling, this research highlights the need for nuanced simulations to prepare NATO for contested space environments and the challenges of great power competition.

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From The Last Frontier To The Final Frontier: The Polar Regions And Space Security, Michael Lynch

Space and Defense

This article examines the intersection of Arctic geopolitics and space security amid intensifying U.S., Russian, and Chinese competition. Melting ice has opened access to resources and new sea routes, elevating the Arctic’s strategic value while increasing reliance on space-based communications, navigation, and surveillance. Yet, vulnerabilities in polar orbits, aging ground infrastructure, and dual-use facilities expose critical systems to environmental hazards and geopolitical risks. The analysis highlights modernization efforts—including SHIELD and Golden Dome—as well as enduring cooperation and rivalries, underscoring the Arctic’s role as both a frontier of opportunity and a potential flashpoint in space-enabled security.

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Same But Different: The Survivability Of Arctic-Based Russian Second-Strike Capability, July Decarpentrie

Space and Defense

This article analyzes the survivability of Russia’s second-strike capability in the Arctic through the lens of classical nuclear deterrence theory. Despite heavy commitments in Ukraine, Moscow continues to modernize its Northern Fleet and reinforce bastion defenses, underscoring the Arctic’s role as the cornerstone of its retaliatory deterrent. While these strategies mirror Cold War practices, they face unprecedented challenges from NATO expansion, multipolar competition, and advances in anti-submarine detection technologies. The study concludes that safeguarding Russia’s second-strike capability not only shapes regional security dynamics but also has broader implications for global strategic stability.

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Atomic Offsets: Nuclear Policy Shifts For Arctic States In The Wake Of Moscow’S Special Military Operation, Molly Wise, Lillian Hussong

Space and Defense

This article examines how Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has intensified nuclear reliance among Arctic states. Applying a new framework of “conventional-nuclear vulnerability,” it analyzes the nuclear policy shifts of Sweden, Finland, and Russia. The findings show that Finland and Sweden pursued NATO membership to secure nuclear guarantees, while Russia adopted riskier nuclear signaling and lowered thresholds for nuclear use. These developments highlight the growing centrality of nuclear deterrence in Arctic security, underscoring the challenges for U.S. and NATO policymakers in balancing assurance and deterrence in a volatile regional environment.

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Russian Strategic Culture And Deterrence In The Arctic, Lana Obradovic, Bethany Vailliant

Space and Defense

This study analyzes Russia’s evolving strategic culture to assess its implications for deterrence in the Arctic. It argues that Western deterrence frameworks insufficiently account for Russia’s integration of military, economic, informational, and political tools into a holistic strategy. Rooted in a siege mentality and aspirations for great power status, Russia perceives the Arctic as central to its security, economic modernization, and geopolitical influence. By situating Arctic policy within this cultural framework, the analysis highlights the need for U.S. and NATO practitioners to reassess assumptions and develop more culturally attuned deterrence strategies.

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Table Of Contents Vol. 16 No. 1, Editors Space And Defense

Space and Defense

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Front Matter, Editors Space And Defense

Space and Defense

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Space And Defense Vol. 16 No. 1 Summer 2025 Special Issue On Arctic Security (Whole Issue), Editors Space And Defense

Space and Defense

Articles that cover issues on Artic Security.

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Air And Missile Defense Threat Scenario Variation To Reduce Pretest Sensitization, Video Games As A Case Study, Julie Renee Szekerczes

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study uses fixed and variable video game types to measure pretest sensitization as a proxy for repeated and varied threat test scenarios in system performance testing of air and missile defense systems. The pretest sensitization phenomenon exists when repeated exposure to a test condition influences the participant's response. Research shows air and missile defense development correlates with video games, resulting in similar interfaces and computer operating environments. Department of Defense acquisition test and evaluation results must reflect system performance without prior knowledge of the threat scenarios confounding the results. System performance results inform acquisition decisions, such as further funding …

Proactive Distributed Emergency Response With Heterogeneous Tasks Allocation, Justice Darko, Hyoshin Park

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Traditionally, traffic incident management (TIM) programs coordinate the deployment of emergency resources to immediate incident requests without accommodating the interdependencies on incident evolutions in the environment. However, ignoring these inherent interdependencies while making current deployment decisions is shortsighted, and the resulting naive deployment strategy can significantly worsen the overall incident delay impact on the network. The interdependencies on incident evolution in the environment, including those between incident occurrences and those between resource availability in near-future requests and the anticipated duration of the immediate incident request, should be considered through a look-ahead model when making current-stage deployment decisions. This study develops …

Factors Contributing To Fatalities In Helicopter Emergency Medical Service Accidents, Jenna Korentsides, Joseph R. Keebler, Mihhail Berezovski, Alex Chaparro

Publications

INTRODUCTION: T his study aimed to update and reinforce previous research on helicopter emergency medical service accidents in the United States. By investigating predictors of fatalities after helicopter emergency medical service crashes through the application of machine learning techniques, we updated existing data sets and sought to uncover patterns that traditional analysis might not reveal.

METHODS: Using the National Transportation Safety Board database, the authors analyzed a dataset of 267 helicopter emergency medical service accidents between 1991–2022. We first calculated fatalities odds ratios for each condition. We then plotted geospatial locations of all reported accidents. Finally, we used XGBoost regression …

Integrating Satellite-Based Precipitation Analysis: A Case Study In Norfolk, Virginia, Imiya M. Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

In many developing cities, the scarcity of adequate observed precipitation stations, due to constraints such as limited space, urban growth, and maintenance challenges, compromises data reliability. This study explores the use of satellite-based precipitation products (SbPPs) as a solution to supplement missing data over the long term, thereby enabling more accurate environmental analysis and decision-making. Specifically, the effectiveness of SbPPs in Norfolk, Virginia, is assessed by comparing them with observed precipitation data from Norfolk International Airport (NIA) using common bias adjustment methods. The study applies three different methods to correct biases caused by sensor limitations and calibration discrepancies and then …

Security Enhancement In Uav Swarms: A Case Study Using Federated Learning And Shap Analysis, Sushmitha Halli Sudhakara, Lida Haghnegahdar

School of Cybersecurity Faculty Publications

As cyber-physical systems (CPSs) increasingly integrate physical and digital realms, securing critical infrastructure, such as the Port of Virginia, becomes paramount. Among CPSs, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are vital for monitoring, communication, and supporting the command and control through remote reconnaissance and surveillance missions. These UAV applications often require coordination, planning, and runtime reconfiguration, traditionally managed by human decision-makers. However, this approach has limitations, as extensively documented in the literature. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a pivotal tool to address these limitations, enhancing risk mitigation and informed decision-making. This research proposes a machine learning (ML) based security mechanism, leveraging …

Ai, American Politics, And Modern Warfare, Madisen Campbell

Space and Defense

As artificial intelligence (AI) transforms modern warfare, it will pose profound ethical challenges for America’s constitutional democracy.

Technological advancements in the world today, particularly the field of artificial intelligence (AI), impact the current political system in the United States. The importance of understanding and addressing the complex challenges and opportunities of incorporating AI into American politics is key to developing a profound understanding of AI in modern warfare and the implications it has for policy making in America. The need for policy makers and military leaders to receive insight on the development of AI and to develop strategic approaches for …

U.S. 5g Technology Policy: Competition Or Boycott?, Wes Ferguson, Kyle Vargus

Space and Defense

Rather than corral allies and partners across the globe into boycotting Chinese 5G telecommunication systems, U.S. officials should embrace free-and-fair trade competition against China, even in products and services where China may enjoy a technological lead.

The race for technological supremacy has emerged as a defining characteristic of the newest era of great power competition. China and the United States compete to become the dominant world power. Each side is racing to create the latest and most elite technologies to catapult themselves into the lead and give them the edge over their adversary. The fifth generation of wireless technology, called …

Atomic Assurance: Funding A Modern U.S. Test Readiness Program, Mark Tang

Space and Defense

To address intensified strategic competition with Russia and China, the United States should reinstate funding for a modern nuclear Test Readiness Program.

The U.S. has never faced the threat of two adversarial powers with nuclear arsenals that equal our own. With the emphasis on great power competition and mounting aggression by both China and Russia, the risk of conflict with either or both powers is growing. Currently, the U.S. is ill prepared for the possible existential challenge that is deterring conflict with two major nuclear peer adversaries. America’s defense strategy and approach towards the international order must change to protect …

Earth To Orbit: Three Models For Strengthening Space Deterrence, Anton Dahm

Space and Defense

Nuclear, cyber, and integrated deterrence models hold lessons for space deterrence strategy, including declared thresholds, resilient space architecture, and the embrace of international competition in technological innovation.

The United States depends heavily on space capabilities, significantly more than any other country. Not only does space enable navigation, communications, environmental monitoring, and other vital capabilities, but space has also been described as the most essential warfighting domain. However, the U.S. space architecture mirrors its early days: relying on important, expensive payloads on a limited number of satellites. While providing important capabilities to U.S. decision-makers, kinetic and non-kinetic weapons can easily target …

The German Zeitenwende: Turning Point Or Blind Alley?, Savannah Hollen

Space and Defense

The Zeitenwende, or turning point, announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, may end up leaving Germany with few good defense policy options.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany vowed to change course, to expand and modernize its military, which for decades has been weak relative to the size of Europe’s leading economy. As bold as Germany’s declarations have been, German leaders may well have walked into a blind alley, unsure of exactly how Zeitenwende will happen, what the final results will be, or the consequences if they never come close to …

Strategic Space Cooperation: U.S. Space Command And The National Guard’S State Partnership Program, David Moore, Jesse Morehouse, Patrick Mitchell

Space and Defense

In 2022, the U.S. Space Command (USSPACECOM) and the National Guard's State Partnership Program (SPP) began pursuing security cooperation objectives while integrating the space domain into greater deterrence efforts. As the newest combatant command (CCMD) with space as its Area of Responsibility (AOR), USSPACECOM has global strategic partnership interests and recognizes the value of the enduring relationships inherent in SPP. This cooperation allows the National Guard to offer its strong relationships, space expertise, and industry knowledge to USSPACECOM. This provides a foundation for USSPACECOM's security cooperation efforts. This article discusses the SPP's role in supporting USSPACECOM's engagement strategy and the …

Arms Control Optimism And Great Power Competition, Damon Coletta

Space and Defense

In its unjust war, Russia rakes at Ukrainian civilian targets using dual-capable missiles. China meanwhile tightens the screws on Taiwan as it cements its friendship with Russia and continues its buildup of strategic nuclear warheads.1 Conventional wisdom and U.S. policy under such tense conditions unduly discount expectations for arms control.2 Arms control, in the popular mind, centers on bans in testing or deployment, and is therefore terminally associated with disarmament. Trepidation about disarmament fuels assumptions in polarized democracy, and the United States in particular, about the narrow political conditions under which arms control can succeed during great power competition. Conventional …

Drone-Based, Boost-Phase Intercept Of North Korean Icbms, James D. Wells, William Priedhorsky, Frederick Lamb, Laura Grego

Space and Defense

North Korea currently has an adversarial relationship with the United States and has successfully tested both nuclear weapons and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the continental United States.1 There are several ways the United States could attempt to address the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear-armed ICBMs. Historically, the United States has relied on a policy of projecting military strength, fostering strong alliances, and maintaining a credible threat of retaliation to deter adversaries, including those with nuclear weapons, from initiating hostilities. Some have argued that this approach has been instrumental in preventing conflict between nuclear-armed nations, including North …

A Premature Obituary For Conventional Deterrence, Jeffery S. Lehmkuhl

Space and Defense

As the United States (US) continues to shift its weight of effort towards great power competition, some scholars and practitioners have questioned the relevance of conventional forces and their ability to deter. Chief among them is Sean McFate, who asserts that “conventional war is unicorn hunting” and that “no one fights that way anymore.”1 Jim Sciutto echoes McFate’s claims in his book The Shadow War and states that the US is losing to Russia and China in a new way of warfare that is conducted below the threshold of conventional warfare.2 Leading Russian General Valery Gerasimov furthered this claim when …

Nuclear Regimes In The 21st Century, Stephen J. Cimbala, Adam Lowther

Space and Defense

The modern nuclear operations practitioner is facing a more complex future than at any point since the height of the Cold War. Understanding the past, present, and possible future of nuclear force structure and doctrine offers the policy maker a useful way to make sense of unfolding events and place them within a broader context. With China, Russia, and North Korea all posing a growing nuclear risk to the United States, a strong grasp on the available options for countering these threats is certainly important.