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Articles 211 - 240 of 259
Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis
Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang
Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Many finance theories predict that the capital structure affects firm value, which implies that the changes in leverage have an impact on stock returns. Most of the existing literature however has been focusing on the determinants of the capital structure. Using a sample of U.S. public firms during 1975-2002, we document a significantly negative effect of leverage changes on next-quarter stock returns. This effect remains significant after controlling for other firm characteristics such as ROE, book-to-market, firm size, and past returns. We propose and test several hypotheses to explain the observed effect. We find that the negative effect is stronger …
Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting
Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper presents a synthesized model of asymmetric information. An empirical analysis of more than 1,400 NYSE common stocks shows that trade direction is more important than volume in revealing the asymmetry. There is also evidence to suggest that signed duration reflects informed trading activity. We use the proposed measure of information asymmetry to study daily changes in the level of informed trading and find that earnings announcements narrow the information gap between the informed and the uninformed. On average, information asymmetry is largest at the beginning of the trading day and it decreases monotonically toward the closing bell. More …
Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu
Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka
The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.
The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana
The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy
Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A large class of fixed income trading strategies focuses on opportunities offered by the interest rate term structure. This paper studies a set of yield curve trading strategies that are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts to an unconditional curve. These mean-reverting trading strategies exploit deviations in the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve from historical norms. We consider cash-neutral trades with one-month holding periods. Some mean-reverting strategies were found to be highly profitable, and outperform, on a risk-adjusted basis before transaction costs, alternative strategies of an investment in the Lehman Brothers Bond index (by …
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model for the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model,the Expectation Hypothesis and affine yield curve models. We show how to construct alternative parametric examples of the three components from a sum of exponential functions, verify that the resulting forward curves satisfy the Heath-Jarrow-Morton conditions, and derive the risk-neutral dynamics for the purpose of pricing interest rate derivatives. We select a model from alternative affine examples that are fitted to …
Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We evaluate the relative performance of funds by conditioning their returns on the cross-section of portfolio characteristics across fund managers. Our implied procedure circumvents the need to specify benchmark returns or peer funds. Instead, fund-specific benchmarks for measuring selection and market timing ability are constructed. This technique is robust to herding as well as window dressing and mitigates survivorship bias. Empirically, the conditional information contained in portfolio weights defined by industry sectors, assets and geographical regions is critically important to the assessment of fund management. For each set of portfolio characteristics, we identify funds with success at either selecting securities …
On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang
On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The existing empirical studies indicate that inferences on the intertemporal relation between expected return and volatility are highly sensitive to empirical specifications of return dynamics. Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (1993) attempt to resolve this confusing situation by examining several generalizations of the standard GARCH-M model. They conclude a negative risk-return relation solely based on the models that are identified in the first step through a variety of diagnostic tests as relatively “better” models. However, it has not been shown in their study whether the evidence supporting their first-step model selection decision is significant or not. To the extent the strength …
Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee
Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In recent years, organized stock exchanges with daily price limits adopted wider limits as narrower limits were criticized for jeopardizing market efficiency. This study examines the impact of a wide price limit on price discovery processes, using data from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Specifically, examined is the impact of daily price limits on (i) information asymmetry; (ii) arrival rates of informed traders; and (iii) order imbalance. Using both trade-to-trade transaction data and the limit order book, we compile evidence that price limits do not improve information asymmetry, delays the arrival of informed traders, and exacerbates order imbalance. These results …
Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh
Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper discusses the different forms of corporate divestitures, the motives for this corporate activity, and the empirical findings about their economic outcomes. A sample of corporate divestitures is also used to identify the main motivations in the Singapore context. We conclude that divestitures are carried out to achieve operational efficiency and gain incremental profitability and liquidity. Using share price data around the event-dates, we show that announcements of divestitures generally lead to significant increases in the returns of the parent company. The positive abnormal returns are related to the relative size of the divestitures and the computed accounting gains. …
Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Statistical arbitrage enables tests of market efficiency which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma. This paper makes several contributions to the statistical arbitrage framework. First, we enlarge the set of statistical arbitrage opportunities in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004) to avoid penalizing incremental trading profits with positive deviations from their expected value. Second, we provide a statistical methodology to remedy the lack of consistency and statistical power in their Bonferroni approach. In addition, this procedure allows for autocorrelation and non-normality in trading profits. Third, we apply our tests to a wide range of trading strategies based on stock momentum, stock value, …
Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We apply a robust bootstrap to evaluate the performance of a large universe of hedge funds. Our bootstrap estimates indicate that the performance of the top hedge funds cannot be attributed to chance alone. This is true even after adjusting for back fill bias, serial correlation, and structural breaks. Also, we find that hedge fund alpha differences persist over three year horizons. However, an investment strategy designed around this will run into difficulties as the persistence is often confined to small funds that are effectively closed to new inflows. Moreover, Bayesian estimates suggest that standard alphas may be overestimated by …
Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang
Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong
Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Recent studies show that decimal pricing led to significant reductions in the spread and depth on the NYSE. In this paper, we examine how the observed changes in the spread and depth can be attributed to different factors. We show that stocks with higher proportions of one-tick spreads and odd-sixteenth quotes, and more frequent trading before decimalization experienced larger declines in the spread and depth afterwards. We interpret this result as evidence of reduced binding constraints and increased price competition under decimal pricing. We also find that decimal pricing led to nontrivial changes in select stock attributes, and that these …
International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S.
International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S.
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In recent years, a number of researchers have examined the existence and source of shareholder wealth effects around announcements of international joint ventures. The results of these studies are mixed with no clear answers as to when and why investors attach value to firms using joint ventures to enter overseas markets. In this context, we examine the shareholder wealth effects for 92 international joint venture announcements made by Australian firms during June 1988 - December 1997. We find that, on average, shareholders of firms announcing joint ventures realize an abnormal return of +1.65% over the two-day announcement period of days …
Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo
Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using CRSP stock and mutual fund data, we find strong evidence for reversals at the style level (e.g., large value, small growth, etc.). There are significant excess and risk-adjusted returns for stocks in styles characterized by the worst past returns and net inflows. We also find evidence for momentum and positive feedback trading at the style level. These value and momentum effects are driven neither by fundamental risk nor by stock-level reversals and momentum. Taken together, the results are consistent with the style-level positive feedback trading model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003).
The Impact Of Regulation Fair Disclosure On Information Asymmetry And Trading: An Intraday Analysis, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Christine X. Jiang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Robert A. Wood
The Impact Of Regulation Fair Disclosure On Information Asymmetry And Trading: An Intraday Analysis, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Christine X. Jiang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Robert A. Wood
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study examines the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) on liquidity, information asymmetry, and institutional and retail investors trading behavior. Our main findings suggest three conclusions. First, Regulation FD has been effective in improving liquidity and in decreasing the level of information asymmetry. Second, retail trading activity increases dramatically after earnings announcements but there is a significant decline in institutional trading surrounding earnings announcements, particularly in the pre‐announcement period. Last, the decline in information asymmetry around earnings announcements is closely associated with a lower participation rate in the pre‐announcement period and more active trading of retail investors after earnings …
The Contribution Of A Satellite Market To Price Discovery: Evidence From The Singapore Exchange, Vicentiu Covrig, David K. Ding, Buen Sin Low
The Contribution Of A Satellite Market To Price Discovery: Evidence From The Singapore Exchange, Vicentiu Covrig, David K. Ding, Buen Sin Low
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The Singapore Exchange (SGX), a small satellite market, successfully competes with a large home market, the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE), in trading the Nikkei 225 futures index. In this paper, we investigate the contribution of the SGX to price discovery and shed light on the reasons for its continued success. Evidence is provided from information revelation and price discovery of three competing but informationally linked markets of the Nikkei 225 index - domestic spot (Tokyo Stock Exchange), domestic futures (OSE), and foreign futures (SGX), which represents the satellite market. Overall, the futures market contributes 77% to price discovery, with the …
Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage With Applications To Momentum And Value Strategies, Steve Hogan, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Mitchell Warachka
Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage With Applications To Momentum And Value Strategies, Steve Hogan, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Mitchell Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper introduces the concept of statistical arbitrage, a long horizon trading opportunity that generates a riskless profit and is designed to exploit persistent anomalies. Statistical arbitrage circumvents the joint hypothesis dilemma of traditional market efficiency tests because its definition is independent of any equilibrium model and its existence is incompatible with market efficiency. We provide a methodology to test for statistical arbitrage and then empirically investigate whether momentum and value trading strategies constitute statistical arbitrage opportunities. Despite adjusting for transaction costs, the influence of small stocks, margin requirements, liquidity buffers for the marking-to-market of short-sales, and higher borrowing rates, …
Risk, Return And Risk Aversion: A Behavioral Rendition, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting
Risk, Return And Risk Aversion: A Behavioral Rendition, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Behavioral finance and classical finance based on utility maximization appear to be mutually exclusive schools of thought. Despite the fundamental difference, we show that behavioral finance also has a linear relation between risk and return. This relation is obtained without the assumptions of market equilibrium, rational expectations, a specific utility function and the market portfolio. In the behavioral approach, the pricing error of CAPM is not an error. It is attributable to the higher-order moments of return. Empirical tests suggest that the relative risk aversion coefficient is positive and time-varying. Moreover, it correlates negatively with both volatility and return.
Information Contents Of Trade And Quote Imbalances, And The Hypothesis Of Reverse Liquidity, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting
Information Contents Of Trade And Quote Imbalances, And The Hypothesis Of Reverse Liquidity, Hian Ann, Christopher Ting
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this paper, we study the information contents of imbalances in trades and quotes emanated from an exchange resembling the one envisioned by Black (1971). We find dollar volume is more informative than number in measuring daily trading and quoting activities. Our measure of quote imbalance permits an investigation on the information asymmetry between market and limit orders. In case illegal insider trading does not occur regularly, we present a hypothesis of reverse liquidity as an alternative interpretation for our empirical findings. It could be that market-order traders charge an implicit liquidity premium for fulfilling the contrarian trading demand of …
How Do Institutional Investors Trade, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo
How Do Institutional Investors Trade, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using a novel and detailed custody trades dataset, this paper analyzes the trading behavior of institutions. Extant studies have examined the effects of past performance on trading by retail investors, day traders, and futures floor traders. Yet very little work has been done on institutions. We find that unlike other investors, institutions take on more risk following an increase in net profit and loss. However, the responses to a gain and loss are highly asymmetric. Institutions aggressively reduce risk in the wake of losses, but only mildly increase risk in the wake of gains. This asymmetry is more pronounced for …
Equity Style Returns And Institutional Investor Flows, Kenneth A. Froot, Melvyn Teo
Equity Style Returns And Institutional Investor Flows, Kenneth A. Froot, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper explores institutional investor trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style behavior, we assign equities to deciles in each of five style dimensions: size, value/growth, cyclical/defensive, sector, and country. We find, first, strong evidence that investors organize and trade stocks across style-driven lines. This appears true for groupings both strongly and weakly related to fundamentals (e.g., industry orcountry groupings versus size or value/growth deciles). Second, the positive linkage between flows and returns …
Privatizing Telecoms And Residual State Influence On Financial Performance, Burkhard N. Schrage, Paul M. Vaaler
Privatizing Telecoms And Residual State Influence On Financial Performance, Burkhard N. Schrage, Paul M. Vaaler
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We test competing theoretical perspectives explaining likely shareholder returns from material investment decisions announced by privatizing telecommunications firms (telecoms) with varying levels of residual state ownership. A principal-agent perspective suggests that decrease in residual state ownership in privatizing telecoms leads to more positive shareholder returns. Over time, this effect increases. An alternative credible privatization perspective suggests that retention of substantial (though not controlling) residual state ownership leads to more positive shareholder returns, but only in the short run. Over time this ownership effect fades quickly. We examine empirical support for these competing perspectives with an event study analyzing cumulative abnormal …
Prospect Theory And Institutional Investors, Melvyn Teo, Paul G. J. O'Connell
Prospect Theory And Institutional Investors, Melvyn Teo, Paul G. J. O'Connell
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
There is ample evidence that past performance affects the trading decisions of individual investors. This paper looks at this issue using a detailed database of currency trading decisions of institutional investors. Past performance manifestly affects currency risk-taking in this group, but the sign and magnitude of the effect runs counter to much of the existing theory and evidence. There is no evidence whatsoever of disposition effects; rather, the dominant characteristic is aggressive risk reduction in the wake of losses. This effect is more prominent later in the year, and among older and more experienced funds. A modified version of the …
Incorporating Diversification Into Risk Management, Mitchell Craig Warachka, A. Purnanandam, Y. Zhao, W.T. Ziemba
Incorporating Diversification Into Risk Management, Mitchell Craig Warachka, A. Purnanandam, Y. Zhao, W.T. Ziemba
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
Stock Exchange Governance And Market Quality, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti, John M. Sequeira, Fangjian Fu
Stock Exchange Governance And Market Quality, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti, John M. Sequeira, Fangjian Fu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We show that organization structure of a stock exchange matters by utilizing the unique setting prevailing in India. India has two major stock markets, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE). These two exchanges adopt similar trading systems, trade essentially identical stocks, and follow the same trading hours. However, these exchanges have different organizational structures: BSE is mutualized whereas NSE is demutualized. Using the Hasbrouck [Review of Financial Studies 6 (1993) 191] measure of market quality we show that NSE provides a better quality market than BSE. This result is consistent with the work of Domowitz …
Trading Your Neighbor's Etfs: Competition Or Fragmentation?, Beatrice Boehmer, Ekkehart Boehmer
Trading Your Neighbor's Etfs: Competition Or Fragmentation?, Beatrice Boehmer, Ekkehart Boehmer
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
On July 31, 2001, for the first time in its history, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) began trading three unlisted securities. The DIA, SPY, and QQQ are the most actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and are listed on the American Stock Exchange. On April 15, 2002 another 27 ETFs followed. These two events provide a unique experiment for studying the impact of a new entrant on market quality. In contrast to recently revived concerns about the adverse impact of market fragmentation, we document that the NYSE entry leads to a dramatic improvement in liquidity that we attribute to …
Asymptotic Dynamics And Value-At-Risk Of Large Diversified Portfolios In A Jump-Diffusion Market, Kian Guan Lim, Xiaoqing Liu, Kai Chong Tsui
Asymptotic Dynamics And Value-At-Risk Of Large Diversified Portfolios In A Jump-Diffusion Market, Kian Guan Lim, Xiaoqing Liu, Kai Chong Tsui
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper studies the modelling of large diversi ed portfolios in a nancial market with jump-di usion risks. The portfolios considered include three categories: equal money-weighted portfolios, risk minimizing portfolios, and market indices. Reduced-form dynamics driven jointly by one Brownian Motion and one Poisson process are derived for the asymptotics of such portfolios. We prove that derivatives written on a portfolio can be priced by treating the asymptotic dynamics as the underlying process if the number of assets in the portfolio is su ciently large. Analytical and Monte Carlo Value-at-Risk (VaR) can be computed for the portfolios based on their …