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Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

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Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Style Investing And Institutional Investors, Kenneth Froot, Melvyn Teo Dec 2008

Style Investing And Institutional Investors, Kenneth Froot, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper explores the importance and price implications of style investing by institutional investors in the stock market. To analyze styles, we assign stocks to deciles or segments across three style dimensions: size, value/growth, and sector. We find strong evidence that institutional investors reallocate across style groupings more intensively than across random stock groupings. In addition, we show that own segment style inflows and returns positively forecast future stock returns, while distant segment style inflows and returns forecast negatively. We argue that behavioral theories play a role in explaining these results.

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Market Segmentation, Liquidity Spillover, And Closed-End Country Fund Discounts, Sai Pang (Justin) Chan, Ravi Jain, Yihong Xia Nov 2008

Market Segmentation, Liquidity Spillover, And Closed-End Country Fund Discounts, Sai Pang (Justin) Chan, Ravi Jain, Yihong Xia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a segmented international capital market, the illiquidity of a country fund in the market in which its shares are traded affects only the share price of the fund (S), while the illiquidity of its underlying assets in the market in which these are traded affects only the fund net asset value (NAV). In an integrated market, illiquidity in one market can easily spill over to another and affect both the fund share price and its underlying asset value. It follows that the closed-end country fund premium, P[reverse not equivalent]ln(S)-ln(NAV), is negatively (positively) affected by the fund (underlying asset) illiquidity …

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Home Biased Analysts In Emerging Markets, Sandy Lai, Melvyn Teo Sep 2008

Home Biased Analysts In Emerging Markets, Sandy Lai, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that local analyst recommendations are systematically more optimistic than foreign analyst recommendations in emerging markets. The effects of this novel home bias among local analysts overwhelm any information asymmetry between foreign and local analysts. Consequently, local analyst upgrades underperform foreign analyst upgrades, while local analyst downgrades outperform foreign analyst downgrades. Neither foreign investors, local institutions, nor retail investors appear to be fully cognizant of this bias. Trade reactions suggest that foreign investors overestimate the bias in foreign analyst recommendations while local institutions underestimate the bias in local analyst recommendations. These results are pervasive across countries, time periods, and …

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Momentum And Informed Trading, A. Hameed, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka Aug 2008

Momentum And Informed Trading, A. Hameed, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Consistent with the predictions of Wang (1994), we document that firm-specific informed trading is an important determinant of price momentum. The stronger return continuation in stocks with more informed trading cannot be explained by cross-sectional differences in uncertainty proxies such as analyst forecast dispersion, analyst coverage, idiosyncratic return volatility, and size. The relationship between informed trading and return continuation is also not attributable to cross-sectional differences in liquidity. Instead, our evidence emphasizes the role of price discovery in generating short-term price momentum.

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Being Naive About Naive Diversification: Can Investment Theory Be Consistently Useful?, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou Aug 2008

Being Naive About Naive Diversification: Can Investment Theory Be Consistently Useful?, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The modern portfolio theory pioneered by Markowitz (1952) is widely used in practice and taught in MBA texts. DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal (2007), however, show that, due to estimation errors, existing theory-based portfolio strategies are not as good as we once thought, and the estimation window needed for them to beat the naive $1/N$ strategy (that invests equally across N risky assets) is 'around 3000 months for a portfolio with 25 assets and about 6000 months for a portfolio with 50 assets.' In this paper, we modify the modern portfolio theory to account for estimation errors, so that the theory …

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The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka Jul 2008

The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns, respectively. Despite the importance of conditioning on short-term forecasted earnings growth, these returns are not driven by earnings momentum. Instead, consistent with investors having limited attention, predictable revisions in long-term analyst forecasts appear to induce return predictability.

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Behavioral Explanations Of Trading Volume And Short-Horizon Price Patterns: An Investigation Of Seven Asia-Pacific Markets, David K. Ding, Thomas H. Mclnish, Udomsak Wongchoti Jun 2008

Behavioral Explanations Of Trading Volume And Short-Horizon Price Patterns: An Investigation Of Seven Asia-Pacific Markets, David K. Ding, Thomas H. Mclnish, Udomsak Wongchoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate whether behavioral postulations offer any implicit explanation of the country-varying relation between trading volume and price pattern among short-horizon winners/losers in seven Pacific-Basin markets during the period 1990 to 2000. Our findings lend credence to the Lee and Swaminathan [Lee, C. and Swaminathan, B., 2000. Price momentum and trading volume, Journal of Finance 55, 2017-2069.] Momentum Life Cycle explanation that high (low) volume winners (losers) are more likely to experience price reversals, whereas high (low) volume losers (winners), price momentum, in the subsequent period. This observation is especially pronounced in Hong Kong. Other models such as those based …

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Corporate Governance, Shareholder Rights, And Shareholder Rights Plans: Poison, Placebo, Or Prescription?, Gary L. Caton, Jeremy C. Goh Jun 2008

Corporate Governance, Shareholder Rights, And Shareholder Rights Plans: Poison, Placebo, Or Prescription?, Gary L. Caton, Jeremy C. Goh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the effect of poison pill adoptions on firm value, controlling for the adopting firm's preexisting corporate governance structure. We find that only companies with the most democratic governance structures, defined as those with the fewest preexisting protective governance provisions, experience significantly positive abnormal stock returns and significantly positive abnormal revisions in five-year earnings growth rate forecasts. Moreover, regression results indicate that abnormal returns and forecast revisions are significantly related to governance structure and not to board composition or subsequent merger activity.

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A Tale Of Two Prices: Liquidity And Asset Prices In Multiple Markets, Justin Sai Pang Chan, Dong Hong, Marti G. Subrahmanyam Jun 2008

A Tale Of Two Prices: Liquidity And Asset Prices In Multiple Markets, Justin Sai Pang Chan, Dong Hong, Marti G. Subrahmanyam

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the liquidity effect in asset pricing by studying the liquidity-premium relationship of an American depositary receipt (ADR) and its underlying share. Using the [Amihud, Yakov, 2002. Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time series effects. Journal of Financial Markets 5, 31-56] measure, the turnover ratio and trading infrequency as proxies for liquidity, we show that a higher ADR premium is associated with higher ADR liquidity and lower home share liquidity, in terms of changes in these variables. We find that the liquidity effects remain strong after we control for firm size and a number of country characteristics, …

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Leverage Change, Debt Capacity, And Stock Prices, Jie Cai, Zhe (Joe) Zhang Apr 2008

Leverage Change, Debt Capacity, And Stock Prices, Jie Cai, Zhe (Joe) Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We document a significantly negative effect of the change in a firm’s leverage ratio on its stock prices. This effect cannot be explained by popular asset pricing factors or firm characteristics. We find that the negative effect is stronger for firms with limited debt capacity. Moreover, firms with an increase in leverage ratio tend to have less future investment, even after controlling for growth option and target leverage. These findings are consistent with a dynamic view of the pecking-order theory that an increase in leverage reduces firms’ safe debt capacity and may lead to future underinvestment, thus reducing firm value. …

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Which Shorts Are Informed?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang Apr 2008

Which Shorts Are Informed?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a long daily panel of short sales using proprietary NYSE order data. From 2000 to 2004, shorting accounts for more than 12.9% of NYSE volume, suggesting that shorting constraints are not widespread. As a group, these short sellers are well informed. Heavily shorted stocks underperform lightly shorted stocks by a risk-adjusted average of 1.16% over the following 20 trading days (15.6% annualized). Institutional nonprogram short sales are the most informative; stocks heavily shorted by institutions underperform by 1.43% the next month (19.6% annualized). The results indicate that, on average, short sellers are important contributors to efficient stock prices.

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Liquidity Distribution In The Limit Order Book On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding Mar 2008

Liquidity Distribution In The Limit Order Book On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The liquidity distribution, or the shape of the limit order book, influences trading behavior and choice of order submission by public liquidity suppliers. The present study seeks to discover whether liquidity providers are concerned about being picked off by informed traders, and whether they are less willing to supply liquidity at the market or demand higher price spreads. The results show that liquidity at the market is a small portion of total liquidity, and that firm size, minimum tick size, volatility, and trading volume play significant roles in determining the liquidity distribution within an order book.

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Investment Patterns In Singapore's Central Provident Fund System, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Toto Tanuwidjaja, Joelle Fong Mar 2008

Investment Patterns In Singapore's Central Provident Fund System, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Toto Tanuwidjaja, Joelle Fong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Rising elderly life expectancies imply the need to accumulate sufficient savings for retirement. This paper investigates the role of recent changes in the investment menu of the Singaporean Central Provident Fund (CPF) system. Our research explores the investment patterns of CPF participants and articulates their implications for policymakers. We find that most investors use their money for housing purchase and default the remainder to the CPF investment pool. The bulk of non-housing saving sits in bank accounts paying a low return. A fraction of workers does elect outside investment products, with high-income earners and males taking more risk than low-income …

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Short-Horizon Contrarian And Momentum Strategies In Asian Markets: An Integrated Analysis, Thomas H. Mcinish, David K. Ding, Chong Soo Pyun, Udomsak Wongchoti Feb 2008

Short-Horizon Contrarian And Momentum Strategies In Asian Markets: An Integrated Analysis, Thomas H. Mcinish, David K. Ding, Chong Soo Pyun, Udomsak Wongchoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, we test the profitability of short-term contrarian and momentum strategies, which take into account the effects of trading activity, size/value characteristics, and asymmetric investor responses to news regarding stock markets in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore during 1990–2000. Except for the Taiwanese and Korean markets, “winner” (“loser”) portfolios experience subsequent reversal (momentum) of stock prices. Among actively traded stocks, significant contrarian profits can be obtained from only “winner” portfolios in Japan, while sizeable momentum profits from “loser portfolios” in both Japan and Hong Kong.

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Further Evidence On The Approximation Of Confidence Intervals For Sharpe Style Weights: The Case Of Australian Listed Managed Funds, Kok Fai Phoon, John Watson, Jayasinghe Wickramanayake Feb 2008

Further Evidence On The Approximation Of Confidence Intervals For Sharpe Style Weights: The Case Of Australian Listed Managed Funds, Kok Fai Phoon, John Watson, Jayasinghe Wickramanayake

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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An Efficient Method For Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of A Stochastic Volatility Model, Junying, Shirley Huang, Jun Yu Jan 2008

An Efficient Method For Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of A Stochastic Volatility Model, Junying, Shirley Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper an efficient, simulation-based, maximumlikelihood (ML) method is proposed for estimating Taylor’sstochastic volatility (SV) model. The new method isbased on the second order Taylor approximation to the integrand.The approximation enables us to transfer the numericalproblem in the Laplace approximation and that inimportance sampling into the problem of inverting two highdimensional symmetric tri-diagonal matrices. A result recentlydeveloped in the linear algebra literature shows thatsuch an inversion has an analytic form, greatly facilitatingthe computations of the likelihood function of the SVmodel. In addition to provide parameter estimation, the newmethod offers an efficient way to filter, smooth, and forecastlatent log-volatility. The …

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The Effect Of Rivals When Firms Emerge From Bankruptcy, Gary L. Caton, Jeffrey Donaldson, Jeremy Goh Jan 2008

The Effect Of Rivals When Firms Emerge From Bankruptcy, Gary L. Caton, Jeffrey Donaldson, Jeremy Goh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Studies on the announcement effects of bankruptcy filings have found that when a firm files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection its shareholders suffer significant losses. A recent paper extends these findings by investigating the announcement effect on rival companies, while another examines the equity performance of firms emerging from bankruptcy. We combine these two lines of inquiry by examining the effect on rivals when a firm emerges from the protection of Chapter 11. We find both significant negative stock market returns and significant negative revisions in analysts’ earnings forecasts for rivals of successfully reorganized companies.

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Firm Diversification And Earnings Management: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offerings, Chee Yeow Lim, Tiong Yang Thong, David K. Ding Jan 2008

Firm Diversification And Earnings Management: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offerings, Chee Yeow Lim, Tiong Yang Thong, David K. Ding

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Popular press suggests that diversified firms are more aggressive in managing earnings than non-diversified firms. We examine this claim in the seasoned equity offering (SEO) setting, where firms have been shown to have the incentive to manage earnings upwards. Using the cross-sectional modified Jones [(1991) J Accounting Res 29:193–228] model to measure discretionary current accruals, we find that discretionary current accruals are higher among diversified firms than in non-diversified ones. Our evidence is consistent with the view that the extent of firm diversification is directly related to the degree of earnings management. We further show that diversified issuers with high …

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Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Statistical Tests And Economic Evaluation, Yongmiao Hong, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou Sep 2007

Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Statistical Tests And Economic Evaluation, Yongmiao Hong, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide a model-free test for asymmetric correlations in which stocks move more often with the market when the market goes down than when it goes up, and also provide such tests for asymmetric betas and covariances. When stocks are sorted by size, book-to-market, and momentum, we find strong evidence of asymmetries for both size and momentum portfolios, but no evidence for book-to-market portfolios. Moreover, we evaluate the economic significance of incorporating asymmetries into investment decisions, and find that they can be of substantial economic importance for an investor with a disappointment aversion (DA) preference as described by Ang, Bekaert, …

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Investing In Hedge Funds When Returns Are Predictable, Doron Avramov, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Aug 2007

Investing In Hedge Funds When Returns Are Predictable, Doron Avramov, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper evaluates hedge fund performance through portfolio strategies that incorporate predictability in managerial skills, fund risk loadings, and benchmark returns. Incorporating predictability substantially improves performance for the entire universe of hedge funds as well as various subsets based on investment styles. Such out-performance is strongest during market downturns when the marginal utility of consumption is relatively high. Moreover, the major source of investment profitability is predictability in managerial skills. In particular, long-only strategies that incorporate predictable skills outperform their Fung and Hsieh (2004) benchmarks by over 12 percent per year. The economic value of predictability obtains for various rebalancing …

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Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Apr 2007

Do Hedge Funds Deliver Alpha? A Bayesian And Bootstrap Analysis, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a robust bootstrap procedure, we find that top hedge fund performance cannot be explained by luck, and that hedge fund performance persists at annual horizons. Moreover, we show that Bayesian measures, which help overcome the short-sample problem inherent in hedge fund returns, lead to superior performance predictability. Relative to sorting on OLS alphas, sorting on Bayesian alphas yields a 5.5 percent per year increase in the alpha of the spread between the top and bottom hedge fund deciles. Our results are robust, and relevant to investors, as they are neither confined to small funds, nor driven by incubation bias, …

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Optimal Liquidation Strategies And Their Implications, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka, Yonggan Zhao Apr 2007

Optimal Liquidation Strategies And Their Implications, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka, Yonggan Zhao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper studies optimal liquidation when the selling price depends on the rate of liquidation, transaction time, volume, and the asset's intrinsic value. A generic closed-form solution for maximizing the discounted liquidation proceeds is derived. To obtain financial insights, three parametric specifications that proxy for increasingly realistic market conditions are examined. In our framework, maximizing liquidation proceeds and minimizing liquidity costs are equivalent. The optimal strategies imply more rapid liquidations in less liquid markets. We also show that volatility is stochastic when market liquidity is unpredictable.

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Realized Daily Variance Of S&P500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley J. Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu Mar 2007

Realized Daily Variance Of S&P500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley J. Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, the realized daily variance is obtained from intraday transaction prices of the S&P 500 cash index over the period from January 1993 to December 2004. When constructing realized daily variance, market microstructure noise is taken into account using a technique proposed by Zhang, Mykland, and Ait-Sahalia (2005). The time series properties of realized daily variance are compared with those of variance estimates obtained from parametric GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Unconditional and dynamic properties concerning the realized daily variance are examined, the relationship between realized variance and returns is investigated, and the stylized facts concerning realized daily …

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On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu Feb 2007

On Stiffness In Affine Asset Pricing Models, Shirley Junying Huang, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Economic and econometric analysis of continuous-time affine asset pricing models often necessitates solving systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) numerically. Explicit RungeûKutta (ERK) methods have been suggested to solve these ODEs both in the theoretical finance literature and in the financial econometrics literature. In this paper we show that under many empirically relevant circumstances the ODEs involve stiffness, a phenomenon which leads to some practical difficulties for numerical methods with a finite region of absolute stability, including the whole class of ERK methods. The difficulties are highlighted in the present paper in the context of pricing zero-coupon bonds as well …

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A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan Feb 2007

A Cardan’S Discriminant Approach To Predicting Currency Crashes, Benedict Seng Kee Koh, Wai Mun Fong, Fabrice Chan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper models large swings in exchange rates by introducing nonlinearity via the generalized normal (GEN) distribution [Lye, J.N., Martin, V.L., 1993. Robust estimation, nonnormalities and generalized exponential distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 261-267]. As the distribution allows for bimodality, a switch between modes may give rise to currency crashes. A statistic known as Cardan's discriminant, based on the shape parameters of the GEN, is used to detect bimodality. The Cardan's discriminant is found to reliably predict currency crashes for eight emerging countries and generate relatively low false signals for stable currencies.

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Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu Jan 2007

Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The traditional equilibrium models of signaling with debt-maturity require transaction costs by firms when raising new capital. In this paper, we propose a new model that has no such requirement. We demonstrate that a separating equilibrium of debt-maturity choice exists under a much more general condition, once accounting for the interactions between borrowers and lenders. The model is able to explain the observed complex financial structure. It is found that callable debt functions much like short-term debt, and serial debt similar to long-term debt. In equilibrium, high-quality firms issue short-term debt, and low-quality firms issue long-term debt.

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Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting Sep 2006

Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The daily efficient price is the price that would prevail if the market were frictionless. I show that volume-weighted average price (VWAP) provides a less noisy estimate for the unobservable efficient price as compared to the closing price. The variance of daily returns computed with VWAPs is smaller than that computed with closing prices. The difference between these two realized variances is economically significant. The volatility of log closing price change tends to understate the beta risk and Sharpe ratio. A higher noise level in the closing price leads to derivative prices that favor option and volatility-related swap writers.

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Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu Sep 2006

Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates whether trading and quoting prices are rounded for both economic and cultural reasons on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China. We find that the close, bid, and ask prices of domestic shares are rounded to the nearest 10s and 5s for economic reasons, and the last decimal point of prices clusters on 8 for cultural reasons. The cross-sectional variation in 10-cent and 5-cent rounding can be well explained by price and inverse of square root of trading volume, whereas the clustering on 8 can hardly be ascribed to economic variables. The cross-sectional variation in execution …

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Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Sheen X. Liu, Howard Qi, Chunchi Wu Jun 2006

Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Sheen X. Liu, Howard Qi, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Term structure models have often been criticized for failing to explain satisfactorily the yield spread between corporate and Treasury bonds. A potential problem is that the personal tax effect is ignored in these models. In this paper, we employ a structural model to investigate the role of personal taxes on both debt and equity returns in capital structure decisions and assess their impact on corporate bond yield spreads. It is shown that personal taxes affect the firm's optimal capital structure, and the tax premium explains a substantial portion of yield spreads, especially for high-grade bonds. The predictive ability of the …

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Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian May 2006

Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that analysts who issue more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable stock recommendations. The average factor-adjusted return associated with the recommendations of analysts in the highest accuracy quintile exceeds the corresponding return for analysts in the lowest accuracy quintile by 1.27% per month. Our findings provide indirect empirical support for valuation models in the accounting and finance literatures (e.g., Ohlson, 1995) that emphasize the role of future earnings in predicting stock price movements. Our results also suggest that imperfectly efficient markets reward information gatherers, such as security analysts, for their costly activities in generating superior earnings forecasts.

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