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Articles 91 - 120 of 393

Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Sell-Side Analysts' Benchmarks, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach Jan 2020

Sell-Side Analysts' Benchmarks, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their recommendations. A buy for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its industry, while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform the market, or some return threshold. We show that these stated benchmarks have implications for the distribution of recommendations, price reactions to recommendations, and the investment value of recommendations. We conclude that, depending on the question, academics may need to account for the benchmarks when studying analysts’ outputs, and investors may find the benchmarks beneficial in interpreting analysts’ advice.

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Chasing Private Information, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta Dec 2019

Chasing Private Information, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using over 5,000 trades unequivocally based on nonpublic information about firm fundamentals, we find that asymmetric information proxies display abnormal values on days with informed trading. Volatility and volume are abnormally high, whereas illiquidity is low, in equity and option markets. Daily returns reflect the sign of private signals, but bid-ask spreads are lower when informed investors trade. Market makers' learning under event uncertainty and limit orders help explain these findings. The cross-section of information duration indicates that traders select days with high uninformed volume. Evidence from the U.S. SEC Whistleblower Reward Program and the FINRA involvement addresses selection concerns.

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Center Of Volume Mass: Does Options Trading Predict Stock Returns?, Gennaro Bernile, Fei Gao, Jianfeng Hu Dec 2019

Center Of Volume Mass: Does Options Trading Predict Stock Returns?, Gennaro Bernile, Fei Gao, Jianfeng Hu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine whether the distribution of trades along the set of strike prices of option contracts on the same stock contains information about underlying price discovery. We show that option traders' demand for delta exposure drives the volume-weighted average strike-spot price ratio (VWKS). In turn, we find that VWKS predicts underlying returns and anticipates the flow of fundamental information about the stock. The return predictability is greater but not limited to stocks with higher information asymmetries and arbitrage costs, and becomes stronger ahead of value relevant news. Overall, options trading appears to play an important informational role for underlying markets.

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Regulations And Brain Drain: Evidence From Wall Street Star Analysts’ Career Choices, Yuyan Guan, Congcong Li, Hai Lu, Franco Wong Dec 2019

Regulations And Brain Drain: Evidence From Wall Street Star Analysts’ Career Choices, Yuyan Guan, Congcong Li, Hai Lu, Franco Wong

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

The Global Settlement, along with related regulations in the early 2000s, prohibits the use of investment banking revenue to fund equity research and compensate equity analysts. We find that all-star analysts from investment banks are more likely to exit the profession or move to the buy side after the regulations. The departed star analysts’ earnings revisions and stock recommendations are more informative than those of the remaining analysts who followed the same companies. To the extent that star analysts are superior to their nonstar counterparts in terms of research ability and ability to inform the market, the exit of star …

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The Trend In Short Selling And The Cross Section Of Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu Nov 2019

The Trend In Short Selling And The Cross Section Of Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper documents that stocks with a decreasing (increasing) trend in their short selling as proxied by the long-term change in short interest experience significant and positive (negative) abnormal returns. Moreover, the positive abnormal returns have larger absolute values and are more persistent. The return predictability of the trend in short selling is not subsumed by the level of short interest and other well-known determinants of stock returns. Investor sentiment does not affect the profitability of the trend strategy. Our results suggest that market participants underreact to public information on short interest and that short sellers are sophisticated investors.

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Relative Strength Over Investment Horizons And Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu Nov 2019

Relative Strength Over Investment Horizons And Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article, the authors propose a simple and novel measure of relative strength over investment horizons that synthesizes short- and intermediate-term price information. The relative-strength measure compares the short-term price trend with the intermediate-term price trend. The relative strength strategy generates substantial profits, which are greater than a simple sum of traditional short-term reversal and momentum profits. The superior performance of the relative strength strategy is evident after risk adjustments for various factor models and is robust across subperiods and different market conditions. These findings seem consistent with investor conservatism and the idea that investors are slow to adjust …

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When Family Trusts Affect The Value Of Firms, Singapore Management University Oct 2019

When Family Trusts Affect The Value Of Firms, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Share transfer restriction may induce family shirking problems, make family conflicts difficult to resolve, and distort firm decisions

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Trust And Local Bias, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang Oct 2019

Trust And Local Bias, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the effect of social trust on local bias. Our evidence suggests that institutional investors located in high-trust regions of the United States exhibit lower local bias. Moreover, we find that high-trust investors are better diversified, suggesting that trust helps accomplish greater diversification. The results are not due to firm, demographic, or local economic characteristics. Additional analysis reveals that the documented informational advantage in local holdings exists only in low-trust regions. We show that this finding is consistent with a trust explanation.

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The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen Oct 2019

The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A breakdown of cross-market arbitrage activity could make markets more fragile and result in price crashes. We provide suggestive evidence for this novel channel based on a high-frequency analysis of the most salient crash in recent history: The Flash Crash. We further show that such an event can be extremely costly for a large seller trading in a particular venue as the seller effectively relies on local liquidity supply only. These findings highlight the vulnerability of today's highly fragmented markets.

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Text Sophistication And Sophisticated Investors, Juha Joenvaara, Jari Karppinen, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Cristian Ioan Tiu Aug 2019

Text Sophistication And Sophisticated Investors, Juha Joenvaara, Jari Karppinen, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Cristian Ioan Tiu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that two novel measures of text sophistication, applied to hedge fund strategy descriptions, encapsulate incremental information about funds. Consistent with the linguistics literature, hedge funds with lexically diverse strategy descriptions outperform, eschew tail risk, and encounter fewer regulatory problems. In line with the literature, hedge funds with syntactically complex strategy descriptions report more regulatory violations and trigger more severe infractions. Fund investors recognize the dichotomy and direct flows accordingly, but not enough to erode away the alphas of lexically diverse funds. Our findings suggest that text sophistication measures provide texture on the cognitive ability and trustworthiness of sophisticated …

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Swaption Portfolio Risk Management: Optimal Model Selection In Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee Aug 2019

Swaption Portfolio Risk Management: Optimal Model Selection In Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We formulate a risk-based swaption portfolio management framework for profit-and-loss (P&L) explanation. We analyze the implication of using the right volatility backbone in the pricing model from a hedging perspective, and demonstrate the importance of incorporating stability and robustness measure as part of the calibration process for optimal model selection. We also derive a displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility (DDSV) model with a closed-form analytical expression to handle negative interest rates. Finally, we show that our framework is able to identify the optimal pricing model, which leads to superior P&L explanation and hedging performance.

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The Information Content Of Sudden Insider Silence, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li Aug 2019

The Information Content Of Sudden Insider Silence, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We present evidence of investors underreacting to the absence of events in financialmarkets. Routine-based insiders strategically choose to be silent when they possessprivate information not yet reflected in stock prices. Consistent with our hypothesis,insider silence following routine sell (buy) predict positive (negative) future return aswell as fundamentals. The return predictability of insider silence is stronger amongfirms with poor information environment and facing higher arbitrage costs, and alarge fraction of abnormal returns concentrates on future earnings announcements. Along-short strategy that exploits insiders’ strategic silence behavior generates abnormalreturns of 6% to 10% annually

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Momentum And Reversal: The Role Of Short Selling, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu Jul 2019

Momentum And Reversal: The Role Of Short Selling, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and momentum. We document that a consistent momentum strategy that buys lightly shorted winners and sells heavily shorted losers exhibits strong short-term momentum and no long-term reversal. In contrast, an inconsistent momentum strategy that buys heavily shorted winners and sells lightly shorted losers experiences weak short-term momentum and persistent long-term reversal. Our results are robust after controlling for firm characteristics, proxy for short-sale constraints, and investor sentiment, as well as an exogenous shock (the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997). These findings present a new challenge to existing theories of momentum that rely …

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Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Zongfei Yang Jun 2019

Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Zongfei Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Dodd–Frank Act (Section 939B) enacted in 2010 repealed the exemption of credit rating agencies (CRAs) from Regulation Fair Disclosure. Testing whether CRAs continue to provide new information to the market after the repeal, the authors find that the significant prerepeal stock price responses to rating changes disappear after the regime change. Bond price reactions, however, remain significant. These results are even more significant at the investment–speculative boundary. Evidence suggests that CRAs served as a conduit for transmitting private information before the repeal and that the continued bond price reactions are likely due to regulations favoring higher-rated bonds.

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Disclosure Of Pending Lawsuits And Bond Terms, Yun Lou Apr 2019

Disclosure Of Pending Lawsuits And Bond Terms, Yun Lou

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

I examine the effect of the disclosure of pendinglawsuits in 10-K/Q filings on the contractual terms of newly issued bonds. Ifind that firms’ decision to disclose pending lawsuits and the amount ofdisclosed information (i.e., the level of disclosure) have opposite effects.Specifically, firms that disclose a higher proportion of their pending lawsuitsface higher yields and are more likely to include default clauses pertaining tocourt judgments in the bond prospectuses. However, within the subsample offirms that disclose their lawsuits, I find that firms with a higher level of disclosureregarding their pending lawsuits are rewarded with lower yields. This evidencesuggests that bond investors …

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Stock Market Prediction Analysis By Incorporating Social And News Opinion And Sentiment, Zhaoxia Wang, Seng-Beng Ho, Zhiping Lin Feb 2019

Stock Market Prediction Analysis By Incorporating Social And News Opinion And Sentiment, Zhaoxia Wang, Seng-Beng Ho, Zhiping Lin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The price of the stocks is an important indicator for a company and many factors can affect their values. Different events may affect public sentiments and emotions differently, which may have an effect on the trend of stock market prices. Because of dependency on various factors, the stock prices are not static, but are instead dynamic, highly noisy and nonlinear time series data. Due to its great learning capability for solving the nonlinear time series prediction problems, machine learning has been applied to this research area. Learning-based methods for stock price prediction are very popular and a lot of enhanced …

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Sensation Seeking And Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Song Wee Melvyn Teo Dec 2018

Sensation Seeking And Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that motivated by sensation seeking, hedge fund managers who own powerful sports cars take on more investment risk but do not deliver higher returns, resulting in lower Sharpe ratios, information ratios, and alphas. Moreover, sensation-seeking managers trade more frequently, actively, and unconventionally, and prefer lottery-like stocks. We show further that some investors are themselves susceptible to sensation seeking and that sensation-seeking investors fuel the demand for sensation-seeking managers. While investors perceive sensation seekers to be less competent, they do not fully appreciate the superior investment skills of sensation-avoiding fund managers.

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Robo-Advisors And Wealth Management, Kok Fai Phoon, Cher Chiew Francis Koh Dec 2018

Robo-Advisors And Wealth Management, Kok Fai Phoon, Cher Chiew Francis Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The recent rise of robo-advisors (RAs) has threatened the traditional fund and wealth management industry. RAs' assets under management (AUM) have risen manyfold through competitiveness on pricing, transparency and services and better expected returns linked to the use of quantitative finance and technology with less subjective human intervention. This article examines the postulation that RAs have an edge over traditional wealth managers. RAs can combine the judgement and computing resources of both human and machine, or bionic power, to provide alternative wealth management services to meet the diverse needs of private wealth clients. However, the authors expect traditional wealth managers …

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Commodity Return Predictability: Evidence From Implied Variance, Skewness And Their Risk Premia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Jose Renato Haas Ornelas Dec 2018

Commodity Return Predictability: Evidence From Implied Variance, Skewness And Their Risk Premia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Jose Renato Haas Ornelas

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the role of realized and implied and their risk premia (variance and skewness) for commodities’ future returns. We estimate these moments from high frequency and commodity futures option data that results in forward-looking measures. Risk premia are computed as the difference between implied and realized moments. We highlight, from a cross-sectional and time series perspective, the strong positive relation between commodity returns and implied skewness. Moreover, we emphasize the high performance of skewness risk premium. Additionally, we show that their portfolios exhibit the best risk-return tradeoff. Most of our results are robust to other factors such as …

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Assessing The Effects Of Post-Crisis Regulatory Reforms On Liquidity In The Singapore Government Securities And Mas Bills Market, John M. Sequeira Nov 2018

Assessing The Effects Of Post-Crisis Regulatory Reforms On Liquidity In The Singapore Government Securities And Mas Bills Market, John M. Sequeira

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The FSB initiated in 2017 an evaluation of the effects of post-crisis regulatory reforms, by developing a framework to assess whether the reforms are achieving their intended outcomes and identify any material unintended consequences. In tandem, MAS established an evaluation framework, which covers four broad impact areas, comprising FIs, financial markets, financial end-users and the broader financial landscape. Internationally, there have been particular concerns over whether post-crisis reforms may have impaired liquidity conditions in specific financial markets. We provide an assessment of the effects of the reforms on liquidity in a key market in Singapore, the SGS and MAS bills …

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Identifying Ineffective Monitors From Securities Class Action Lawsuits, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang Oct 2018

Identifying Ineffective Monitors From Securities Class Action Lawsuits, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We identify “ineffective” institutional monitors based on the prevalence of occurrences of securities class-action lawsuits in their overall portfolio. We find that firms with a higher representation of such institutional investors among the firms’ large shareholders have a greater likelihood of future litigation and experience more negative market reactions upon such litigation filings. These firms exhibit other unfavorable governance outcomes including poorer acquisitions and lower CEO turnover-performance sensitivity. We find suggestive evidence that ineffective monitoring may be a result of higher operational risk.

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Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu Sep 2018

Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the disciplinary effect of foreign institutional investors on opportunistic insider trading. Using a novel global insider trading data set containing 35,557 firms from 26 countries over the period 2000-2015, we find that greater foreign institutional ownership significantly reduces the profitability of insider trading, above and beyond the effect of domestic institutional ownership. Using the exogenous variation in foreign institutional ownership induced by MSCI index inclusion, we show that the effect is causal. The impact of foreign investors is stronger in countries with weak insider trading regulations and poor institutional environments, and operates mainly through the monitoring channel, …

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Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu Sep 2018

Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the disciplinary effect of foreign institutional investors on opportunistic insider trading. Using a novel global insider trading data set containing 35,557 firms from 26 countries over the period 2000-2015, we find that greater foreign institutional ownership significantly reduces the profitability of insider trading, above and beyond the effect of domestic institutional ownership. Using the exogenous variation in foreign institutional ownership induced by MSCI index inclusion, we show that the effect is causal. The impact of foreign investors is stronger in countries with weak insider trading regulations and poor institutional environments, and operates mainly through the monitoring channel, …

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Transaction Cost Optimization For Online Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Jialei Wang, Dingjiang Huang, Steven C. H. Hoi Aug 2018

Transaction Cost Optimization For Online Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Jialei Wang, Dingjiang Huang, Steven C. H. Hoi

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

To improve existing online portfolio selection strategies in the case of non-zero transaction costs, we propose a novel framework named Transaction Cost Optimization (TCO). The TCO framework incorporates the L1 norm of the difference between two consecutive allocations together with the principles of maximizing expected log return. We further solve the formulation via convex optimization, and obtain two closed-form portfolio update formulas, which follow the same principle as Proportional Portfolio Rebalancing (PPR) in industry. We empirically evaluate the proposed framework using four commonly used data-sets. Although these data-sets do not consider delisted firms and are thus subject to survival bias, …

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Is Sell-Side Research More Valuable In Bad Times?, Roger Loh, René M. Stulz Jun 2018

Is Sell-Side Research More Valuable In Bad Times?, Roger Loh, René M. Stulz

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Because uncertainty is high in bad times, investors find it harder to assess firm prospects and, hence, should value analyst output more. However, higher uncertainty makes analysts’ tasks harder so it is unclear if analyst output is more valuable in bad times. We find that, in bad times, analyst revisions have a larger stock-price impact, earnings forecast errors per unit of uncertainty fall, reports are more frequent and longer, and the impact of analyst output increases more for harder-to-value firms. These results are consistent with analysts working harder and investors relying more on analysts in bad times.

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The Competitive Landscape Of High-Frequency Trading Firms, Ekkehart Boehmer, Dan Li, Gideon Saar Jun 2018

The Competitive Landscape Of High-Frequency Trading Firms, Ekkehart Boehmer, Dan Li, Gideon Saar

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine product differentiation in the high-frequency trading (HFT) industry, where the “products” are secretive proprietary trading strategies. We demonstrate how principal component analysis can be used to detect underlying strategies that are common to multiple HFT firms, and show that there are three product categories with distinct attributes. We study how HFT competition in each product category impacts the market environment, presenting evidence that indicates how it influences the short-horizon volatility of stocks as well as the viability of trading venues.

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Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Yang May 2018

Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The recent Dodd-Frank Act (Section 939B) enacted in 2010 repeals credit rating agencies’ (CRAs) exemption from Regulation Fair Disclosure. We test whether CRAs continue to provide new information to the market after the repeal. We find that the significant pre-repeal stock price responses to rating changes disappear after the regime change. Bond price reactions however remain significant. These results are even more significant at the investment-speculative boundary. Our evidence suggests that CRAs serve as a conduit for transmitting private information before the repeal. It also shows that regulatory constraint is a channel by which credit ratings affect cost of financing.

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Competing On Speed, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta, Thomas Philippon May 2018

Competing On Speed, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta, Thomas Philippon

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze trading speed and fragmentation in asset markets. In our model, trading venues make technological investments and compete for investors who choose where and how much to trade. Faster venues charge higher fees and attract speed-sensitive investors. Competition among venues increases investor participation, trading volume, and allocative efficiency, but entry and fragmentation can be excessive, and speeds are generically inefficient. Regulations that protect transaction prices (e.g., Securities and Exchange Commission trade-through rule) lead to greater fragmentation. Our model sheds light on the experience of European and U.S. markets since the implementation of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and Regulation …

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Short Covering Trades, Ekkehart Boehmer, Truong X. Duong, Zsuzsa R. Huszar Apr 2018

Short Covering Trades, Ekkehart Boehmer, Truong X. Duong, Zsuzsa R. Huszar

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Short sellers are known to have private information about security prices. Empirical evidence of short selling, however, is based on only half of short sellers’ trading activity; specifically, the opening of the position. Using disclosed large short position data from the Japanese stock market, we provide the first detailed evidence of covering trades and find a positive reaction to short covering that only partially reverses. While these results are consistent with substantial transaction costs for closing large short positions, they also reveal that some short sellers are privately informed about positive future events and have timing ability in covering positions.

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Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Facial Structure And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Melvyn Teo Feb 2018

Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Facial Structure And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Facial structure as encapsulated by facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) maps onto masculine behaviors in males and may positively relate to testosterone. We find that high-fWHR hedge fund managers underperform low-fWHR hedge fund managers by 5.83% per year after adjusting for risk. Moreover, funds operated by high-fWHR managers exhibit higher operational risk, suffer from a greater asset-liability mismatch, and are more likely to fail. We trace the underperformance to high-fWHR managers’ preference for lottery-like stocks and reluctance to sell loser stocks. The results are robust to adjustments for sample selection, marital status, sensation seeking, and manager race, and suggest that investors …

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