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Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Bundled Earnings Guidance And Analysts' Forecast Revisions, Charles Hsu, Rencheng Wang Dec 2021

Bundled Earnings Guidance And Analysts' Forecast Revisions, Charles Hsu, Rencheng Wang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Bundling managerial earnings guidance with quarterly earnings announcements (EAs) has become an increasingly common practice. This study investigates the impact of bundled guidance on analysts' forecast revisions. Our findings indicate that analysts respond more to bundled guidance than non-bundled guidance. This effect increases with analysts' time pressure and cognitive constraints around the EA. Analysts' revisions also incorporate more of the bundled management guidance when accompanied by additional information, such as conference calls. We further find that analysts revise their forecasts more quickly following bundled guidance than non-bundled guidance. Together, these findings are consistent with the notion that analysts place more …

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Joint News, Attention Spillover, And Market Returns Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu Nov 2021

Joint News, Attention Spillover, And Market Returns Predictability, Li Guo, Lin Peng, Yubo Tao, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze over 2.6 million news articles and propose a novel measure of joint news coverage of firms. The measure strongly and negatively predicts market returns, with a monthly R-squared of 3.93% in sample and 6.52% out of sample. The relation is causal, robust to existing predictors, and is especially strong when market uncertainty is high or when market frictions are large. At the firm level, joint news coverage is associated with a 20.3% increase in EDGAR downloads by new IPs from the investor bases of the other covered firms. Our evidence suggests that joint news triggers investor attention spillover …

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Data Analytics And Audit Quality, Ru Gao, Sterling Huang, Rencheng Wang Nov 2021

Data Analytics And Audit Quality, Ru Gao, Sterling Huang, Rencheng Wang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine the impact of data analytics on audit quality. Using hand-collected information on data analytics skills of employees of audit firms, we find that human capital investment in data analytics improves audit quality. The analytics capability of both frontline and back-office employees contributes to audit quality. The effect is more pronounced for audit clients with complex business operations, for clients with complicated accounting estimates, and for clients that are more digitalized. Taken together, our findings suggest that an audit office’s analytics capability represents an important office attribute that can affect audit quality.

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Non-Gaap Earnings And Stock Price Crash Risk, Charles Hsu, Rencheng Wang, Benjamin C. Whipple Oct 2021

Non-Gaap Earnings And Stock Price Crash Risk, Charles Hsu, Rencheng Wang, Benjamin C. Whipple

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We investigate whether non-GAAP earnings disclosures increase stock price crash risk. Consistent with non-GAAP disclosures allowing managers to inflate investors’ perceptions about firm performance, our results indicate that income increasing non-GAAP reporting increases crash risk. We also find that managers can use non-GAAP reporting as a substitute for earnings management to withhold bad news from investors (the traditional explanation for crashes). Finally, we find a positive association between non-GAAP reporting and the likelihood of subsequent events that can trigger a crash. Overall, our evidence is consistent with some non-GAAP disclosures exposing investors to risks of large and sudden price declines.

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Esg And The Market Return, Ran Chang, Liya Chu, Jun Tu, Bohui Zhang, Guofu Zhou Oct 2021

Esg And The Market Return, Ran Chang, Liya Chu, Jun Tu, Bohui Zhang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) index. We find that it has significant power in predicting the stock market risk premium, both in- and out-of-sample, and delivers sizable economic gains for mean-variance investors in asset allocation. Although the index is extracted by using the PLS method, its predictability is robust to using alternative machine learning tools. We find further that the aggregate of environmental variables captures short-term forecasting power, while that of social or governance captures long-term. The predictive power of the ESG index stems from both cash flow and discount rate channels.

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The Profitability Of Warrant Issuers: An Empirical Investigation Of Single Stock And Index Warrants, Ichaya Wongnapakarn, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol, Pattarawan Prasarnphanich, Eakapat Manitkajornkit Oct 2021

The Profitability Of Warrant Issuers: An Empirical Investigation Of Single Stock And Index Warrants, Ichaya Wongnapakarn, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol, Pattarawan Prasarnphanich, Eakapat Manitkajornkit

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the derivative warrant's profit of issuers compensated with the risk from issuing call and put derivative warrants because they have commitments in risk management and managing risk by hedging the underlying exposure. The average profit of issuers is a cumulative profit from the first trading day until the last trading day. Consistent with the imperfect competition for issuing put derivative warrants on single stock from different securities borrowing and lending advantages, the profit margin of a put warrant is higher than the call warrant. However, the profit margin from a put warrant is not necessarily higher than …

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Tracking Retail Investor Activity, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang Oct 2021

Tracking Retail Investor Activity, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide an easy method to identify marketable retail purchases and sales using recent, publicly available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 bps over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalance is attributable to order flow persistence, while the rest cannot be explained by contrarian trading (proxy for liquidity provision) or public news sentiment. There is suggestive, but only suggestive, evidence that retail marketable orders might contain firm-level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.

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Inside Brokers, Frank Weikai Li, Abhiroop Mukherjee, Rik Sen Sep 2021

Inside Brokers, Frank Weikai Li, Abhiroop Mukherjee, Rik Sen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We identify the broker each corporate insider trades through, and find that analysts and mutual fund managers affiliated with such “inside brokers” have a substantial information advantage on the insider’s firm. Affiliated analysts issue more accurate earnings forecasts, and affiliated mutual funds trade the insider’s stock more profitably than their peers, following insider trades through their brokerage. Notably, this advantage persists well after these insider trades are publicly disclosed. Our results challenge the prevalent perception that information asymmetry arising from insider trading is acute only before trade disclosure, and suggest that brokers facilitating these trades are in a position to …

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A Dynamic Delegated Investment Model Of Spacs, Dan Luo, Jian Sun Sep 2021

A Dynamic Delegated Investment Model Of Spacs, Dan Luo, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study SPACs in a continuous-time delegated investment model. Our model is built upon three unique features of SPACs: the sponsor and the investor are only partially aligned, a SPAC has a short time horizon, and the investor has the final control over investment approval. Due to the misalignment in incentives, the sponsor has an increasing incentive to propose unprofitable projects to the investor; in response, the investor exerts more stringent screening based on her information. Although the screening helps curb the sponsor’s moral hazard, it also dampens the disciplining effect of partial alignment in incentives. When the investor’s information …

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Are Disagreements Agreeable? Evidence From Information Aggregation, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang Jul 2021

Are Disagreements Agreeable? Evidence From Information Aggregation, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Disagreement measures are known to predict cross-sectional stock returns but fail to predict market returns. This paper proposes a partial least squares disagreement index by aggregating information across individual disagreement measures and shows that this index significantly predicts market returns both in- and out-of-sample. Consistent with the theory in Atmaz and Basak (2018), the disagreement index asymmetrically predicts market returns with greater power in high-sentiment periods, is positively associated with investor expectations of market returns, predicts market returns through a cash flow channel, and can explain the positive volume-volatility relationship.

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The Pricing Of Initial Public Offering And Market Efficiency, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol Jun 2021

The Pricing Of Initial Public Offering And Market Efficiency, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates long-run performance of Thai initial public offerings (IPOs). To examine the longrun performance of Thai IPOs, we compute buy-and-hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns for two years after the IPOs. We find strong evidence of long run underpricing in Thai market. Specifically, the average buy-and-hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns are 64.5% and 18.4% respectively. However, our multi-variate analysis does not indicate a strong relation between long-run underperformance and firm-specific factors, such as firm size, firm age, investment banker reputation and firm profitability.

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Analyst Teams, Bingxu Fang, Ole-Kristian Hope Jun 2021

Analyst Teams, Bingxu Fang, Ole-Kristian Hope

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper examines the impact of teamwork on sell-side analysts’ performance. Using a hand-collected sample of over 50,000 analyst research reports, we find that analyst teams issue more than 70% of annual earnings forecasts. In contrast, most prior research implicitly assumes that forecasts are issued by individual analysts. We document that analyst teams generate more accurate earnings forecasts than individual analysts and that the stock market reacts more strongly to forecast revisions issued by teams. Analyst teams also cover more firms, issue earnings forecasts more frequently, and issue less stale forecasts. Analysts working in teams are more likely to be …

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Labor Market Mobility And Expectation Management: Evidence From Enforceability Of Noncompete Provisions, Michael Tang, Rencheng Wang, Yi Zhou Jun 2021

Labor Market Mobility And Expectation Management: Evidence From Enforceability Of Noncompete Provisions, Michael Tang, Rencheng Wang, Yi Zhou

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This study examines how managers' use of expectation management is affected by their labor market mobility, which we measure by the enforceability of noncompete provisions in their employment contracts. Exploiting quasinatural experiments, our difference-in-differences analyses provide new causal insights to the growing literature on how managers' career concerns affect their disclosure choices. Consistent with a less mobile labor market imposing more pressure on managers to achieve earnings expectations, we predict and find that managers in US states that tightened enforcement of noncompete provisions are more likely to manage analyst expectations downward. We also find that downward expectation management is used …

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Speed Acquisition, Shiyang Huang, Bart Zhou Yueshen Jun 2021

Speed Acquisition, Shiyang Huang, Bart Zhou Yueshen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Speed is a salient feature of modern financial markets. This paper studies investors' speed acquisition together with their information acquisition. Speed heterogeneity arises in equilibrium, fragmenting the information aggregation process with a nonmonotone impact on price informativeness. Various competition effects drive speed and information to be either substitutes or complements. The model cautions the possible dysfunction of price discovery: An improving information technology might complement speed acquisition, which shifts the concentration of price discovery over time, possibly hurting price informativeness. Novel predictions are discussed regarding investor composition and their investment performance.

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Hedge Funds And Their Prime Broker Analysts, Sung Gon Chung, Manoj Kulchania, Melvyn Teo Jun 2021

Hedge Funds And Their Prime Broker Analysts, Sung Gon Chung, Manoj Kulchania, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Are sell-side analysts reluctant to go against the investment views of their hedge funds when these hedge funds are their prime brokerage clients? We show that prime broker analysts tend to upgrade stocks recently bought by their clients. For stocks with upgraded recommendations, post-announcement cumulative abnormal returns are significantly lower for those purchased by the prime brokerage clients. Our results are stronger with high-dollar-turnover clients who generate more trading commissions. We also find that a hedge fund with a large bet on a stock has a stronger incentive to pressure the fund’s prime brokers to issue a favorable recommendation on …

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Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta Jun 2021

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities' implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 min and 5 min, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …

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Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta Mar 2021

Japanese Monetary Policy And Its Impact On Stock Market Implied Volatility During Pleasant And Unpleasant Weather, Marinela Adriana Finta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the effect of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting releases on the intraday dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index and its futures during pleasant and unpleasant weather. We show that at the time of a monetary policy release when the temperature is pleasant, there is a significant decline in Japanese equities’ implied volatility and futures, which lasts for about 10 minutes and 5 minutes, respectively. This decline is longer and exhibits a greater variation when releases occur during cold days. Finally, we emphasize the achievable economic profits and losses, given the reaction of Nikkei VI futures to the …

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Hedge Fund Franchises, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Naik, Melvyn Teo Feb 2021

Hedge Fund Franchises, William Fung, David Hsieh, Narayan Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the growth strategies of hedge fund firms. We find that firms with successful first funds are able to launch follow-on funds that charge higher performance fees, set more onerous redemption terms, and attract greater inflows. Motivated by the aforementioned spillover effects, first funds outperform follow-on funds, after adjusting for risk. Consistent with the agency view, greater incentive alignment moderates the performance differential between first and follow-on funds. Moreover, multiple-product firms underperform single-product firms but harvest greater fee revenues, thereby hurting investors while benefitting firm partners. Investors respond to this growth strategy by redeeming from first funds of firms …

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Portfolio Diversification Using Shape-Based Clustering, Tristan Lim, Chin Sin Ong Feb 2021

Portfolio Diversification Using Shape-Based Clustering, Tristan Lim, Chin Sin Ong

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Portfolio diversification involves lowering the correlation between portfolio assets to achieve improved risk–return exposure. It is reasonable to infer from the classic Anscombe quartet that relying on descriptive statistics, and specifically, correlation, to achieve portfolio diversification may not derive the most optimal multiperiod portfolio risk-adjusted return because stocks in a portfolio can exhibit different price trends over time, even with the same computed pairwise correlation. This research applied a shape-based time-series clustering technique of agglomerative hierarchical clustering using dynamic time-series warping as a distance measure to aggregate stocks into like-trending clusters across time as a portfolio diversification tool. Results support …

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Is The Synthetic Stock Price Really Lower Than Actual Price?, Jianfeng Hu Dec 2020

Is The Synthetic Stock Price Really Lower Than Actual Price?, Jianfeng Hu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Conventional wisdom suggests synthetic stock prices are lower than actual prices due to short‐sale constraints and voting premiums. This study finds that such underpricing of the synthetic midquote disappears if arbitrageurs face security borrowing costs. The synthetic spread predominantly contains the actual spread. Synthetic stock overpricing is as common as underpricing but the former is more persistent and more profitable. The difference between synthetic and actual quotes is significantly affected by options market makers' hedging costs and investors' demand for leverage.

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What Do Short Sellers Know?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Juan (Julie) Wu, Xiaoyan Zhang Nov 2020

What Do Short Sellers Know?, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Juan (Julie) Wu, Xiaoyan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using NYSE short-sale order data, we investigate whether short sellers' informational advantage is related to firm earnings and analyst-related events. With a novel decomposition method, we find that while these fundamental event days constitute only 12% of sample days, they account for over 24% of the overall underperformance of heavily shorted stocks. Importantly, short sellers use both public news and private information to anticipate news regarding earnings and analysts. Shorting's predictive ability remains significant after controlling for information in analyst actions and displays no reversal patterns, indicating that short sellers know more than analysts, and the nature of their information …

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Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Susann Rohwedder Oct 2020

Financial Knowledge And Portfolio Complexity In Singapore, Benedict S. K. Koh, Olivia S. Mitchell, Susann Rohwedder

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial literacy in Singapore has not been analyzed in much detail, despite the fact that this is one of the world’s most rapidly aging nations. Using the Singapore Life Panel®, we explore older Singaporeans’ levels of financial knowledge and compare them to those observed in the United States. We assess portfolio complexity for these older households, to examine how financial literacy is related to outcomes of interest. We show that older Singaporeans’ levels of financial literacy are comparable overall to those in the United States, even though older Singaporeans score slightly lower on some dimensions (knowledge of interest and inflation), …

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The Effects Of Mifid Ii On Sell-Side Analysts, Buy-Side Analysts, And Firms, Bingxu Fang, Ole-Kristian Hope, Zhongwei Huang, Rucsandra Moldovan Aug 2020

The Effects Of Mifid Ii On Sell-Side Analysts, Buy-Side Analysts, And Firms, Bingxu Fang, Ole-Kristian Hope, Zhongwei Huang, Rucsandra Moldovan

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper provides early but broad empirical evidence on MiFID II, which requires investment firms to unbundle investment research from other costs they charge to clients. Employing difference-in-differences matched-sample research designs with firm fixed effects, we find a decrease in the number of sell-side analysts covering European firms after MiFID II implementation, particularly for firms that are less important to the sell-side. However, research quality improves; specifically, individual analyst forecasts are more accurate and stock recommendations garner greater market reactions. In addition, sell-side analysts seem to cater more to the buy-side after MiFID II by providing industry recommendations along with …

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Differences In The Reliability Of Fair Value Hierarchy Measurements: A Cross-Country Study, Chu Yeong Lim, Gary Pan, Kevin Ow Yong Aug 2020

Differences In The Reliability Of Fair Value Hierarchy Measurements: A Cross-Country Study, Chu Yeong Lim, Gary Pan, Kevin Ow Yong

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Prior research suggests there are significant differences in how investors perceive the reliability of fair values. An unaddressed question in this stream of research is whether cross-country differences in institutional factors can mediate differences in reliability for the fair value hierarchy measurements. We contribute to the research on fair value accounting by examining the impact of institutional factors toward the perceived reliability of fair value measurements in an international context. Based on an international sample of banks across twenty different countries, we find that the probability of crash risk is lower among countries with better financial development infrastructure, greater level …

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What Drives The Declining Wealth Effect Of Subsequent Share Repurchase Announcements?, David K. Ding, Hardjo Koerniadi, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti Aug 2020

What Drives The Declining Wealth Effect Of Subsequent Share Repurchase Announcements?, David K. Ding, Hardjo Koerniadi, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Recent academic studies document that open market share repurchase announcements in the United States generate significantly lower returns than those reported in earlier studies. We find that the lower announcement return is associated with an increasing number of subsequent announcements in the more recent periods. Although the announcement period return from the initial announcement is positive, subsequent announcement returns are significantly decreasing. Further, we find that the decreasing returns of subsequent announcements are attributed to firms with negative past repurchase announcement returns. Our multivariate regression test results are consistent with the notion that the decreasing subsequent repurchase announcement returns are …

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Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei Jul 2020

Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine whether analysts use information in well-known stock return anomalies when making recommendations. We find results contrary to the common view that analysts are sophisticated information intermediaries who help improve market efficiency. Specifically, when analysts make more favorable recommendations to stocks classified as overvalued, these stocks tend to have particularly large negative abnormal returns ex post. Moreover, analysts whose recommendations are more aligned with anomaly signals are more skilled and elicit greater recommendation announcement returns. Our results suggest that analysts' biased recommendations could be a source of market frictions that impede the efficient correction of mispricing.

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Risk Premium Spillovers Among Stock Markets: Evidence From Higher-Order Moments, Marinela Adriana Finta, Sofiane Aboura Jun 2020

Risk Premium Spillovers Among Stock Markets: Evidence From Higher-Order Moments, Marinela Adriana Finta, Sofiane Aboura

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the volatility and skewness risk premium spillovers among the U.S., U.K., German, and Japanese stock markets. We define risk premia as the difference between risk-neutral and realized moments. Our findings highlight that during periods of stress, cross-market and cross-moment spillovers increase and that these increases are mirrored by a decrease in within-market effects. We document strong bidirectional spillovers between volatility and skewness risk premia and emphasize the prominent role played by the volatility risk premium. Finally, we show that several announcements drive the time-varying risk premium spillovers.

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Green Bonds For Financing Renewable Energy And Energy Efficiency In South-East Asia: A Review Of Policies, Dina Azhgaliyeva, Anant Kapoor, Yang Liu Apr 2020

Green Bonds For Financing Renewable Energy And Energy Efficiency In South-East Asia: A Review Of Policies, Dina Azhgaliyeva, Anant Kapoor, Yang Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Mobilizing private finance for renewable energy and energy efficiency is critical for Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) not only for the reduction of global temperature rise but also for meeting fast-growing energy demand. Two-thirds of green bonds issued in ASEAN were used to finance renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. This paper provides a review of green bond issuance and green bond policies in ASEAN. Issuance of green bonds in top three green bond issuing countries in ASEAN, i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, are reviewed in detail. Green bond policies in ASEAN are effective in promoting green bond issuance. …

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Happy Analysts, Ole-Kristian Hope, Congcong Li, An-Ping Lin, Maryjane Rabier Feb 2020

Happy Analysts, Ole-Kristian Hope, Congcong Li, An-Ping Lin, Maryjane Rabier

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper is the first to investigate the role of work-life balance in financial analysts’ performance and career advancement. Using a large sample of Glassdoor reviews by financial analysts, we find a significant non-linear relation between work-life balance satisfaction and analyst performance and analyst career advancement. Specifically, when work-life balance satisfaction is relatively low, an increase in work-life balance is associated with better analyst performance and career advancement; however, when perceived work-life balance is already high, a further increase in work-life balance is associated with worse analyst performance and career advancement.

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How Smart Is Institutional Trading?, Jingi Ha, Jianfeng Hu Feb 2020

How Smart Is Institutional Trading?, Jingi Ha, Jianfeng Hu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We estimate daily aggregate order flow at the stock level from all institutional investors as well as for hedge funds and the other institutions separately. We achieve this by extrapolating the relation between quarterly institutional ownership in 13F filings, aggregate market order imbalance in TAQ, and a representative group of institutional investors’ transaction data. We find that the estimated institutional order imbalance has positive price impact in the short term, which reverses in the long term. The “smart” order flow from hedge funds generates greater and more persistent price impact than the “dumb” order flow from all the other institutions. …

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