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Market Risk And Market-Implied Inflation Expectations, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Carolyne Cebrian Soper
Market Risk And Market-Implied Inflation Expectations, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Carolyne Cebrian Soper
WCBT Faculty Publications
We examine interactions between market risk and market-implied inflation expectations. We argue that these interactions are asymmetric and varied in time. Specifically, market risk becomes elevated by expectations of either very low or high expected inflation. Market risk does not react to expectations of moderate, stable inflation. In our analysis, market risk is proxied by VIX and market-implied inflation expectations are reflected by five- and ten-year breakeven inflation. We use daily data for 5 and 10 year breakeven inflation and VIX for the sample period January 3, 2003 – January 24, 2019 for empirical testing. We employ asymptotic VAR, multiple …
Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska
Financial Market Risk And Macroeconomic Stability Variables: Dynamic Interactions And Feedback Effects, Agnieszka M. Chomicz-Grabowska
Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)
This study investigates dynamic interactions and feedback effects between financial market risk proxied by VIX and key macroeconomic stability variables that include the rate of unemployment, headline inflation and market-based inflation expectations reflected by the breakeven inflation. I argue that market risk should play a stronger role in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting than it has been recognized thus far in the literature. I employ vector autoregression with impulse response functions, as well as two-state Markov switching tests to examine these interactions on the longest available US monthly data. The empirical tests show that the association between market risk and macroeconomic …