Business Commons^™

Lead-Lag And Volatility Point Change Estimations For Cryptocurrencies, Jules Clement Mba, Jenipher Mutale, Ehounou Serge Eloge Florentin Angaman

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This study investigates the lead-lag relationships and volatility dynamics among four major cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon – during the turbulent year of 2022. We address three primary research questions: (1) To what extent do lead-lag relationships exist among major cryptocurrencies, and how do they challenge or support the notion of market efficiency in the crypto space? (2) How do volatility change points in different cryptocurrencies relate to each other and to major market events? (3) How can the identification of lead‑lag relationships and volatility change points inform cryptocurrency investment strategies and risk management practices? Using a continuous-time …

A Method To Incorporate Transition Risk Stress Testing Into Probability Of Default (Pd) Models For Retail Portfolios, Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska, Paweł Kopciuszewski, Alvaro Fernandez Toledo

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

Climate risk is one of the type of risks in a bank’s portfolio which is not fully recognized, and its impact on the future overall risk changes is hidden due to lack of sufficient knowledge at the moment. One of the most common data comes from Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) scenarios related to climate change (physical risk) and climate policy and technology trends (transition risk). In the paper we focused on the transition risk scenarios and their impact on the economy and in particular on credit risk. Our main goal was to check the tendency in the …

Fixed Income Fund Report, November 2024, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Antitrust Laws On Horizontal Mergers: International Evidence, Chune Young Chung, Iftekhar Hasan, Jihoon Hwang, Incheol Kim

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines how antitrust law adoptions affect horizontal merger and acquisition (M&A) outcomes. Using the staggered introduction of competition laws in 20 countries, we find antitrust regulation decreases acquirers’ five-day cumulative abnormal returns surrounding horizontal merger announcements. A decrease in deal value, target book assets, and industry peers' announcement returns are consistent with the market power hypothesis. Exploiting antitrust law adoptions addresses a downward bias to an estimated effect of antitrust enforcement (Baker (2003)). The potential bias from heterogeneous treatment effects does not nullify our results. Overall, antitrust policies seem to deter post-merger monopolistic gains, potentially improving customer welfare.

Equity Fund Monthly Report, November 2024, Archway Investment Fund

Archway Investment Fund

No abstract provided.

Applying Deep Learning To Detect Abnormal Event Log Traces: A Non-Rule-Based Framework, Yunsen Wang, Tiffany Chiu, Miklos A. Vasarhelyi

Department of Accounting and Finance Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Process mining is an efficient method that can analyze the full population of transactions using the event log of business processes. Conventional rule-based process mining techniques can detect anomalies; however, it tends to trigger a large number of false alarms. To improve the efficiency of anomaly detection using process mining, this study adopts a deep learning-based classification approach to detect anomalies in the traces of event logs. This approach contributes to the literature by proposing a non-rule-based process mining technique based on deep learning. Results demonstrate that the proposed non-rule-based process mining method can help auditors focus on transactional anomalies.

Improved Estimation Of The Correlation Matrix Using Reinforcement Learning And Text-Based Networks, Cheng Lu, Papa Momar Ndiaye, Majeed Simaan

Department of Accounting and Finance Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We propose a data-driven methodology to shrink the correlation matrix and, hence, the covariance matrix using reinforcement learning (RL). Our approach does not impose any assumptions on the stock returns and can be applied to any covariance matrix target. It focuses on the special case of the global minimum variance portfolio and investigates the economic value of our methodology by utilizing text-based networks (Hoberg and Phillips, 2016). The portfolio selection problem, hence, boils down to determining the optimal shrinkage policy using RL. The empirical analysis utilizes a large universe of stocks covering more than 400 assets and 20 years as …

A Practical Guide To Driving Financial Inclusion Through Cbdcs, Heng Wang

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Welcome back to our blog series exploring the potential that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) hold to positively impact individuals that are currently unserved or underserved by financial systems globally. Together with Professor Wang, we first delved into the challenges and opportunities of driving financial inclusion, and how CBDCs could serve as an important mechanism in ensuring that no one is excluded from financial services – or our increasingly digital economies and societies. In our second blog we then examined how CBDCs can be intentionally designed to drive financial inclusion. In this third and final piece, Professor Wang offers a …

An Empirical Test Of Auction Efficiency: Evidence From Mbs Auctions Of The Federal Reserve, Pietro Bonadi, Ali Hortacsu, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

PurposeWe estimate the marginal cost curve of each dealer in each auction, based on structural models of the multiunit discriminatory-price auction.Design/methodology/approachAuction theory has ambiguous implications regarding the relative performance of three formats of multiunit auctions: uniform-price, discriminatory-price and Vickrey auctions. We evaluate the performance of these three auction formats using bid-level data of the Federal Reserve’s purchase auctions of agency MBS from June 2014 through November 2014.FindingsOur results suggest that neither uniform-price nor Vickrey auctions outperform discriminatory-price auctions in terms of the total expenditure. However, Vickrey auctions outperform discriminatory-price auctions in terms of efficiency, with the efficiency gain around 0.74% …

Estimating Models For Engineering Costs On The State Highway Operation And Protection Program (Shopp) Portfolio Of Projects, Elhami Nasr, Tariq Shehab, Nigel Blampied, Vinit Kanani

Mineta Transportation Institute

The State Highway Operation and Protection Program (SHOPP) is crucial for maintaining California’s 15,000-mile state highway system, which includes projects like pavement rehabilitation, bridge repair, safety enhancements, and traffic management systems. Administered by Caltrans, SHOPP aims to preserve highway efficiency and safety, supporting economic growth and public safety. This research aimed to develop robust cost-estimating models to improve budgeting and financial planning, aiding Caltrans, the California Transportation Commission (CTC), and the Legislature. The research team collected and refined comprehensive data from Caltrans project expenditures from 1983 to 2021, ensuring a high-quality dataset. Subject matter experts validated the data, enhancing its …

Predictors Of Audit Quality: A Confirmatory Study, Joseph Philip Kambey, Williams Kwasi Peprah [email protected], Lenny Leorina Evinta, Cecilia Lelly Kewo

Faculty Publications

This study investigated the predictors of audit quality according to registered external auditors in Indonesia. Even though there are improvements in audit reports and practices, there is still some fraud and audit risk that affects the credibility of financial reports. This research is based on a random sample technique where 304 registered external auditors in Indonesia answered self-constructed research instruments and their validity was ascertained with exploratory factor analysis, where they resulted as good. The first-party distributed data were analyzed with multiple regression to determine the predictors of audit quality. The study revealed that internal controls, governance, and audit culture …

Syariah Security Crowdfunding: A Risk Analysis For Alternative Funding Solution For Indonesian Small And Medium Enterprises, Mochammad Salman Alfarisi, Mulawarman Hannase

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are currently a sector that plays an important role in increasing economic stability in Indonesia. However, one of the crucial obstacles related to the development of micro businesses is limited capital and low access to sources of capital. Sharia securities crowdfunding is a form of innovation in the field of financial technology that offers alternative solutions for MSME players in obtaining funding. However, sharia securities crowdfunding is not without risk analysis. Some of the other risks of crowdfunding are inadequate regulatory and regulatory frameworks, low public awareness and trust, and the risk of dehumanization …

[Abstract For] Excel Functions For Option Prices And Greeks Without Vba, Tom Arnold, Joseph Farizo, Jonathan M. Godbey

Finance Faculty Publications

The =LAMBDA function within Excel provides a powerful new tool for investors and analysts. In this treatment, we demonstrate =LAMBDA functions that calculate an option’s intrinsic value, price, and Greeks based on the Black-Scholes model. We additionally construct an =ALLGREEKS function within Excel’s built-in =MAKEARRAY function that quickly produces option prices and Greeks given six parameters: the underlying spot price (S), strike price (X), annual return volatility (V), days to maturity (DTM), days in a year (DIY), and the annual risk-free rate (RF). In addition to writing this guide on how to create these useful functions, we provide a downloadable …

Challenges And Prospects Of Islamic Financial Services Industry (Ifsi), Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

Dr. Ishrat Husain addresses a distinguished gathering of Shariah scholars from across the globe on the transition from conventional to Islamic finance. He raises ten critical questions that explore the challenges and prospects of the Islamic Financial Services Industry.

The Impact Of Emotional Intelligence On Project Success And Team Dynamics In Finance Organizations, Richa Shah

Harrisburg University Dissertations and Theses

This research investigates the impact of emotional intelligence (EI) on leadership effectiveness within the finance industry, with a focus on its influence on team dynamics, decision-making, and the overall success of projects. The study seeks to address a gap in the current literature by examining how finance leaders apply emotional intelligence in high-pressure, fast-paced environments, where quick decisions and high-stakes situations are common. While emotional intelligence has been widely studied in other sectors, there is limited understanding of how it operates in finance, a sector known for its high demands and intense work culture.

The research employs a qualitative methodology, …

How To Communicate Your Estate Plan To Family When Dividing Assets Unequally, Anastasia Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

Provides a guide on how to effectively approach estate planning conversations with family members.

Effectively communicating an estate plan with unequal division of assets can be challenging, but approaching it with honesty, clarity, and empathy can help prevent misunderstandings and family disputes. Open, respectful dialogue—paired with thoughtful explanations and transparent documentation—ensures that your family understands your intentions and feels valued, even when tough decisions are involved.

Ultimately, your goal isn’t just to pass down financial assets, but also to preserve family harmony and, where applicable, secure the future of a viable business. By fostering open communication, you can create a …

Portfolio Optimization Tools In Excel, Tom Arnold, Joseph Farizo, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

The calculus and matrix algebra associated with finding the optimal portfolio weights for a set of securities is tedious. However, Excel tools make the computations simple, with minimal programming needed to arrive at optimal portfolio weights for securities in a portfolio. We provide this Excel template and techniques for acquiring optimal weights, which is useful for personal and institutional investors alike.

Takeaways:

• The calculus and matrix algebra associated with optimizing portfolio weights is tedious, but not necessary for finding optimal portfolio weights
• Based on the results of the associated mathematics for optimizing portfolio weights, a very accessible Excel template can …

Political Stability As A Risk Factor In Global Markets, Noel Pavel Jeutang

Mountain Plains Business Conference

Using a unique and comprehensive measure of political stability, we evaluate the relationship between countries’ political stability and stock market performance around the world from 2000 to 2022. We find this risk factor is unique relative to other well-established risk factors across emerging and developed markets and that it is a priced risk factor in emerging countries.

Alumni Giving At A Christian Liberal Arts College That Originated As A Bible College, Joel K. Johnson

PhD in Organizational Leadership

Alumni giving is a critical revenue stream for Christian liberal arts colleges that originated as Bible institutions. This dissertation includes an in-depth case study of the patterns and determinants of alumni donations, focusing on the transition from Bible colleges to liberal arts institutions and the subsequent impact on alumni giving behaviors. Quantitative data from a member institution of the Council for Christian Colleges and Universities were analyzed to explore the influence of demographic variables of age, marital status, and era of institutional operation on alumni contributions. This research addressed six key questions, including comparisons of the participants' mean giving to …

Local Environmental Organizations And Long-Term Investor Value Appropriation, Chune Young Chung, Gia Han Doan, Kainan Wang

Finance Faculty Publications

Highlights

• We explore how external and internal firm factors influence the impact of local activism.
• Our results indicate a positive effect of local activism on LIVA.
• Firms tend to increase their environmental disclosures in response to local activism.
• Local activism effects are greater when long-term value is prioritized.
• The findings support the social movement theory.

Abstract

This study uses datasets representing local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to examine how local environmental organizations enhance long-term investor value appropriation (LIVA). We explore how external and internal firm factors influence the impact of local activism. Our results indicate a positive effect of local activism …

How To Make Everything About Sanctions? Review Of “How Sanctions Work, Iran And The Impact Of Economic Warfare” By Bajoghli, Nasr, Salehi-Isfahani, And Vaez (2024), Siamak Javadi, Alborz Pakravan, Ojan Bahadori, Alireza Akhondi

Finance Faculty Publications

A 2024 book titled “How Sanctions Work, Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare” by Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, and Ali Vaez argues that sanctions have had no impact on the behavior of the Islamic Republic in Iran (IR hereafter) and have instead inflicted pain on the ordinary Iranians. While the book does offer a useful description of the evolution of the sanctions against the IR, it fails in its analysis and conclusions.

Impact Of Industrial Park Platforms On Sme Financing: Evidence From The Ld Park, Zhendong Liu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are essential to the Chinese economy. However, when seeking financing, SMEs often face stricter financing conditions and higher financing costs due to information asymmetry in the market, commonly referred to as the problem of “difficult and expensive financing.” This issue severely limits the growth potential of SMEs. This study explores the positive role that industrial parks play as a bridge between banks and SMEs in alleviating the “difficult and expensive financing” problem. The study surveyed 54 industrial parks and collected 268 valid questionnaires from banks, industrial parks, and SMEs. The data analysis yielded the following …

Anomalies, Option Volume, And Disagreement, Allaudeen Hameed, Byoung-Hyun Jeon

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

We document robust amplification of stock market anomaly returns associated with elevated option trading volume driven by disagreement trades. Consistent with the correction of mispricing associated with biased beliefs, anomaly returns are higher when disagreement option volume is high prior to earnings announcements. Additionally, we demonstrate that disagreement-based option volume is negatively related to future stock returns among stocks that are overpriced based on anomaly characteristics. Our findings also concentrate in stocks that are also difficult to short, emphasizing the combined impact of investor bias and shorting costs. Leveraging the staggered adoption of extensible Business Reporting Language, we establish a …

Physical Frictions And Digital Banking Adoption, Hyun Soo Choi, Roger Loh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The behavioral literature suggests that minor frictions can elicit desirable behavior without obvious coercion. Using closures of ATMs in a densely populated city as an instrument for small frictions to physical banking access, we find that customers affected by ATM closures increase their usage of the bank's digital platform. Other spillover effects of this adoption of financial technology include increases in point-of-sale (POS) transactions, electronic funds transfers, automatic bill payments and savings, and a reduction in cash usage. Our results show that minor frictions can help overcome the status-quo bias and facilitate significant behavior change.

Do Women Receive Worse Financial Advice?, Utpal Bhattacharya, Amit Kumar, Sujata Visaria, Jing Zhao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We arranged for trained undercover men and women to pose as potential clients and visit all 65 local financial advisory firms in Hong Kong. At financial planning firms, but not at securities firms, women were more likely than men to receive advice to buy only individual or only local securities. Female clients who signaled high confidence, high risk tolerance, or a domestic outlook were especially likely to receive this suboptimal advice. Our theoretical model explains these patterns as a result of statis-tical discrimination interacting with advisors’ incentives. Taste-based discrimination is unlikely to explain the results.

Temporal Relational Graph Convolutional Network Approach To Financial Performance Prediction, Jeyaraman Brindha Priyadarshini, Bing Tian Dai, Yuan Fang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Accurately predicting financial entity performance remains a challenge due to the dynamic nature of financial markets and vast unstructured textual data. Financial knowledge graphs (FKGs) offer a structured representation for tackling this problem by representing complex financial relationships and concepts. However, constructing a comprehensive and accurate financial knowledge graph that captures the temporal dynamics of financial entities is non-trivial. We introduce FintechKG, a comprehensive financial knowledge graph developed through a three-dimensional information extraction process that incorporates commercial entities and temporal dimensions and uses a financial concept taxonomy that ensures financial domain entity and relationship extraction. We propose a temporal and …

Sequential Investment Decisions For Mining Projects Using Compound Multiple Volatility Real Options Approach, Atul Chandra, Peter R. Hartley

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Managers evaluating investment decisions in mining projects have reported using the net present value approach (NPV). However, NPV has the drawback of collapsing variations from uncertainties in future project cash flows into a fixed expected project value today. Ignoring future uncertainties and contingencies can lead managers to make incorrect up-front binary decisions, such as investing in or abandoning the project now. The real options analysis approach (ROA) instead captures variations from uncertainties as volatilities in project value and allows flexibility in investment decisions to be contingent on information as it is revealed. Managers we consulted agreed that ROA is superior …

Production Box Cost Estimating Relationships For Dod Avionics, Carla J. Cisneros, Edward D. White, Brandon M. Lucas, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Robert D. Fass, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

The authors use historical information obtained from the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise to estimate recurring production unit cost for DoD avionics via cost estimating relationships (CERs). The specific modeled responses include mean unit cost, median unit cost, and the 100th production unit cost (T100) utilizing learning curve theory. For T100, the authors adopt both a multiplicative and an additive error for CER comparison. Recommended CERs consist of the mean unit cost and the T100 utilizing a multiplicative error. Moreover, results reveal that weight has a significant effect on cost as well as a potential underaccounting of real price change or …

A Garch-Midas Approach To Modelling Stock Returns, Ezekiel N.N. Nortey, Ruben Agbeli, Godwin Debrah, Theophilus Ansah-Narh, Edmund F. Agyemang

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Measuring stock market volatility and its determinants is critical for stock market participants, as volatility spillover effects affect corporate performance. This study adopted a novel approach to analysing and implementing GARCH-MIDAS modelling methods. The classical GARCH as a benchmark and the univariate GARCH-MIDAS framework are the GARCH family models whose forecasting outcomes are examined. The outcome of GARCH-MIDAS analyses suggests that inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, and oil price are significant determinants of the volatility of the Johannesburg Stock Market All Share Index. While for Nigeria, the volatility reacts significantly to the exchange rate and oil price. Furthermore, inflation, exchange …

Examining Performance Disparities In Palestinian Banks: A Comparative Analysis Of Islamic And Conventional Banks, Ra'fat Al-Jallad, Luai Antari

An-Najah University Journal for Research - B (Humanities)

The study investigates the performance differentials between Islamic and conventional banks operating in Palestine across a number of dimensions. Research Problem: The study addresses the lack of comparative analysis between Islamic and conventional banks in Palestine, specifically examining performance disparities using the CAMEL approach. This is critical due to the recent trend of conventional banks acquiring Islamic banks, raising questions about the underlying performance differences. Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to analyze and compare the performance of Islamic and conventional banks in Palestine from 2011 to 2021, focusing on key performance dimensions such as capital adequacy, asset …