Business Commons^™

Historical Perspectives In Volatility Forecasting Methods With Machine Learning, Zhiang Qiu, Clemens Kownatzki, Fabien Scalzo, Eun Sang Cha

Seaver College Research And Scholarly Achievement Symposium

Volatility forecasting in the financial market plays a pivotal role across a spectrum of disciplines, such as risk management, option pricing, and market making. However, volatility forecasting is challenging because volatility can only be estimated, and different factors influence volatility, ranging from macroeconomic indicators to investor sentiments. While recent works suggest advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence for volatility forecasting, a comprehensive benchmark of current statistical and learning-based methods for such purposes is lacking. Thus, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey of the historical evolution of volatility forecasting with a comparative benchmark of key landmark models. We …

Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors find that a simple heuristic of sorting liquid equity options by dollar price to construct a portfolio of cheap put options leads to a surprisingly robust hedge for tail risk – the superior performance holds even when compared against more advanced empirical strategies. Further investigation reveals the asymmetry in market correlation under different market conditions as the mechanism of this robust hedging performance. The cheap options selected by the heuristic comprises of stocks with diverse firm characteristics. The correlation spike accompanying tail risk events leads to the majority of these put options moving into-the-money (ITM), thus compensating the …

Hedging Cryptos With Bitcoin Futures, Francis Liu, Natalie Packham, Meng-Jou Lu, Wolfgang Karl Haerdle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The introduction of derivatives on Bitcoin enables investors to hedge risk exposures in cryptocurrencies. Because of volatility swings and jumps in cryptocurrency prices, the traditional variance-based approach to obtain hedge ratios may not be suitable for hedgers. In this work, we consider two extensions of the traditional approach: first, different dependence structures are modelled by different copulae, such as the Gaussian, Student-t, Normal Inverse Gaussian and Archimedean copulae; second, different risk measures, such as value-at-risk, expected shortfall and spectral risk measures are employed to find the optimal hedge ratio. Extensive out-of-sample tests using the data from the time …

Red Flags And Risks: Unpleasant Surprises When An Office Manager Suddenly Leaves, David Harris Cpa

The Journal of the Michigan Dental Association

Losing an office manager can pose significant challenges for dental practices. This article delves into the red flags and potential risks that may accompany an office manager's sudden departure, shedding light on the importance of understanding the circumstances surrounding their exit. The article highlights how embezzlement can be a reason behind unexplained departures and emphasizes the need to assess the situation more deeply. It explores account ownership issues that can hinder practice owners from accessing crucial business information, particularly in embezzlement investigations. The article recommends proactive measures for practice owners to secure access to vital accounts to prevent potential issues …

Case Study In Enterprise Risk Management: Lion Rock Summer Camps, Inc., Arthur Meaney

Honors Theses

Enterprise risk management is a crucial part of the modern business world. Being unprepared to handle risks that a company may face can lead to financial demise. Since the 1960s, the insurance industry has steadily moved away from the focus on insurance buying. Enterprise risk management strives to identify company-wide risks, evaluate their frequency and severity, come up with risk management and loss control methods, implement said methods, and monitor their effectiveness over time. In this case study, I identify risks for Lion Rock Summer Camps, Inc. and suggest various risk management and loss control methods. Lion Rock Summer Camps, …

Human Resource Allocations For Independent Hotels Under Uncertainty: Fuzzy Goal Programming Approach, Di Wu, Yong Choi, Seunghee Wie

Journal of Hospitality Financial Management

Human Resource (HR) allocation for independent hotels is critical, especially during and after the pandemic because labor costs account for a large portion of operating expenses in lodging businesses. An effective HR allocation can therefore be critical for minimizing costs and, at the same time, for improving profitability and making financial management more efficient. This study focuses on fuzzy goal programming models covering both linear and quadratic cases to study HR allocation issues for independent hotels as linear programming models are often limited to handle multiple objective HR allocation problems. The applications illustrated in this research can be fully utilized …

The Impact Of Different Worldviews On The Financial Planning Process, Luke Osterhus

Senior Honors Theses

An individual's worldview has an effect on all aspects of their life. Worldview affects the decisions people make, the clothes they wear, the people they interact with, and so much more. What is often overlooked is the impact of worldview on one's view and use of money. Money is universal and everyone has some form of currency or assets. However, the way money is used, whether it is saved, spent, or invested, is often determined by an individual's own concept of money. Additionally, relationships between people are often chosen or influenced by an individual's worldview. Human beings are seen differently …

Cds Channels Of Influence On Discretionary Accruals, Hao Cheng, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Existing studies indicated that firm debt holders can use the credit default swap (CDS) market to hedge their credit risk, and thus they would reduce their monitoring of the firms, leading to largely distressed firms shirking and increasing positive abnormal earnings accruals. Besides providing insurance, however, the CDS spreads also perform price discovery of credit risk information sought by trade creditors and potential lenders who are not protected. High absolute abnormal discretionary accruals or bad earnings quality, especially negative abnormal accruals, would lead adverse CDS price signals that are very costly to the firm. This compels the firm under nondistressed …

Lessons Learned: Greg Feldberg, Sandra Ward, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Greg Feldberg was a senior supervisory financial analyst at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve experienced in regulating large banks when he was recruited to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) where he worked from 2010-11, becoming its Director of Research. The FCIC was a bipartisan commission charged with investigating the causes of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Feldberg shared thoughts about some of the challenges faced by the commission and why its report is important. This "Lessons Learned" is based on an interview with Mr. Feldberg.

Teres: Tail Event Risk Expectile Shortfall, Andrija Mihoci, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

We propose a generalized risk measure for expectile-based expected shortfall estimation. The generalization is designed with a mixture of Gaussian and Laplace densities. Our plug-in estimator is derived from an analytic relationship between expectiles and expected shortfall. We investigate the sensitivity and robustness of the expected shortfall to the underlying mixture parameter specification and the risk level. Empirical results from the US, German and UK stock markets and for selected NASDAQ blue chip companies indicate that expected shortfall can be successfully estimated using the proposed method on a monthly, weekly, daily and intra-day basis using a 1-year or 1-day time …

Corporate Social Responsibility And Ceo Risk-Taking Incentives, Zhichuan Li

Business Publications

We examine how firms adjust CEO risk-taking incentives in response to risk environments associated with their corporate social responsibility (CSR) standing. We find strong evidence that as a firm's CSR status improves (declines), increasing (decreasing) its risk-taking capacity, the firm responds by adjusting compensation contracts to increase (decrease) CEO risk-taking incentives (Vega). One channel of the adjustment is through stock option grants. Further analyses indicate that the positive CSR-Vega association is stronger in firms with better corporate governance and in industries where riskiness is more important. Our evidence indicates that firms are not passive in response to changes in CSR …

Derivative Initiative: Does The Use Of Financial Derivatives Influence Firm Value In The Philippine Context?, Julia Alfonso D. Arrastia, Christina Angela N. Balagot, Joseph Anthony C. Go, Dominique Ann Philomena V. Lacuna

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Firms use financial derivatives as a way to hedge risky transactions to avoid financial risks. Studies have focused on firms’ use of financial derivatives in developed countries. However, there is limited research done on emerging markets like the Philippines because these economies have only recently adapted advanced reporting standards that obligate the disclosure of the nature and extent of risks resulting from the use of financial instruments. We used Tobin’s Q ratio to proxy for firm value and determine the presence of a hedging premium. Because derivatives are used by firms to hedge against currency risks, interest rate risks, and …

Compensation Strategies That Support Commercial Banks’ Effective Risk Management Practices, Elias Kagumya

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Compensation structures with relatively high levels of contingent pay encouraged managers to engage in excessive risk-taking behavior at financial institutions, which contributed to the global financial crisis of 2008. The purpose of this study, guided by the theory of the firm, was to explore compensation strategies that some executives in Uganda used to support effective risk-management practices. This multiple case study was an in-depth inquiry into compensation strategies that encouraged prudent risk-taking behavior. The target population comprised 5 risk-management executives from 5 separate commercial banks who had successfully implemented compensation strategies that supported risk management practices. Data were collected through …

Jpmorgan Chase London Whale E: Supervisory Oversight, Arwin G. Zeissler, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

As a diversified financial service provider and the largest United States bank holding company, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is supervised by multiple regulatory agencies. JPM’s commercial bank subsidiaries hold a national charter and therefore are regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Since the bank’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) invested the surplus deposits of JPM’s commercial bank units, the OCC was also CIO’s primary regulator. During the critical period from late January through March 2012, when CIO traders undertook the failed derivatives strategy that ultimately cost the bank $6 billion, JPM did not provide the OCC with …

Swaption Portfolio Risk Management: Optimal Model Selection In Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We formulate a risk-based swaption portfolio management framework for profit-and-loss (P&L) explanation. We analyze the implication of using the right volatility backbone in the pricing model from a hedging perspective, and demonstrate the importance of incorporating stability and robustness measure as part of the calibration process for optimal model selection. We also derive a displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility (DDSV) model with a closed-form analytical expression to handle negative interest rates. Finally, we show that our framework is able to identify the optimal pricing model, which leads to superior P&L explanation and hedging performance.

The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy B: Risk Limits And Stress Tests, Rosalind Z. Wiggins, Andrew Metrick

Journal of Financial Crises

Investment banks are in the business of taking calculated risks. Risk management infrastructure facilitates the safe pursuit of profits and the balancing of associated risks. By 2006, Lehman Brothers was thought to have a very respectable risk management system, and even its regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, viewed its risk framework as being fully compliant with regulatory requirements. In its public disclosures, Lehman characterized its risk controls as “meaningful constraints on its risk taking” and evidence of its continued financial stability. Beginning in late 2006, however, Lehman began dismantling its carefully crafted risk management framework as it pursued a …

Compensation Clawback Policies And Corporate Lawsuits, Matteo Arena, Nga Nguyen

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the relation between compensation clawbacks and lawsuits and analyze how these two corporate disciplinary forces interact. This paper hypothesizes that by allowing firms to recoup compensation from managers who breach their fiduciary duty, clawbacks provide a form of discipline that potentially reduces the likelihood of managerial wrongdoing, which, in turn, lowers the risk of corporate lawsuits.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper identifies whether or not a company in the S&P 1500 had a clawback policy between 2007 and 2014 by searching the company filings and press releases. The authors also construct different proxies …

Managing Swaption Portfolio Risk Under Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Efficient risk managing of swaption portfolios is crucial in the hedging of interest rate exposure. This paper formulates a portfolio risk management framework under stochastic volatility models. The implication of using the right volatility backbone in the stochastic-alpha-beta-rho (SABR) model is analyzed. In order to handle negative interest rates, we derive a displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility (DDSV) model with closed-form analytical expression for swaption pricing. We demonstrate that the dynamics naturally allow for negative rates, and is also able to fit the market well. Finally, we show that choosing the right backbone in the DDSV model results in optimal hedging performance …

How Do Financial Institutions In China Mitigate Risks In Securitization Markets?, Tiantian Lyu

Honors College Theses

Asset securitization as the essential financial tool has increased the liquidity of underlying assets and promoted rapid economic development. In 2008, the outbreak of Subprime Mortgage Crisis that brought by the collapse of securitization triggered the U.S. securitization market to realize the risks involved in structured financial products, and thus facilitated the development of risk controlling tools. Through the analysis of securitization process, drivers, and credit rating agencies, the study concentrates on the formation of risks and modeling evaluation with evidence in both China and the U.S. markets. Statistical analysis was conducted on Chinese securitized products combining with risk management …

Early Detection And Prevention Of Corporate Financial Fraud, Marcia Schillermann

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

The economic cost of financial statement fraud continues to be a problem for organizations and society. The research problem addressed in this study was the limited risk management strategies available for the early detection and prevention of financial statement fraud by corporate managers and auditors. These strategies are important to the proactive prevention of fraud. This study is important to future trustworthiness of financial statements. The purpose of this qualitative, multiple-case study was to explore current early detection and prevention methods in financial statement fraud using a risk management conceptual framework. The research question focused on current fraud detection and …

Effects Of The Basel Iii Liquidity Risk Metrics On U.S. Bank Performance And Stability, Cecelia Mundt

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper investigates the effects of Basel III’s liquidity metrics on profitability and stability on a subset of U.S banks from 2002 to 2014. The profitability and stability of each of these banks were calculated under the scenario of shifting 1% of its overall assets from illiquid to liquid. The empirical findings demonstrate a negative relationship between holding higher liquidity and bank profitability. It finds that this negative relationship is disproportionate across the bank classes with savings banks losing profitability at almost twice the rate as national banks. Additionally, stability of savings banks is more adversely affected than of national …

The Paradoxes Of Risk Management In The Banking Sector, Chu Yeong Lim, Margaret Woods, Christopher Humphrey, Jean Lin Seow

Research Collection School of Accountancy

This paper uses empirical evidence to examine the operational dynamics and paradoxical nature of risk management systems in the banking sector. It demonstrates how a core paradox of market versus regulatory demands and an accompanying variety of performance, learning and belonging paradoxes underlie evident tensions in the interaction between front and back office staff in banks. Organisational responses to such paradoxes are found to range from passive to proactive, reflecting differing organisational, departmental and individual risk culture(s), and performance management systems. Nonetheless, a common feature of regulatory initiatives designed to secure a more structurally independent risk management function is that …

Risk Management In The Venture Capital Industry: Managing Risk In Portfolio Companies, Dorian Proksch, Wiebke Stranz, Andreas Pinkwart, Michael Schefczyk

The Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance

Managing risk is one of the main activities of venture capital companies. Despite the fact that this topic is of high practical relevance, only little research was published on risk management performed by venture capital companies in their ventures. Hence, we conducted a structured literature review which was the basis for developing five hypotheses concerning measures to decrease failure risk in venture capital-backed ventures. We tested these hypotheses with an empirical data set of 93 venture capital-backed ventures in Germany using original deal data from nine different venture capital funds using a structural equation model. We showed that the experience …

Misalignment: Corporate Risk-Taking And Public Duty, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

This article argues for a “public governance duty” to help manage excessive risk-taking by systemically important firms. Although governments worldwide, including the United States, have issued an array of regulations to attempt to curb that risk-taking by aligning managerial and investor interests, those regulations implicitly assume that investors would oppose excessively risky business ventures. That leaves a critical misalignment: because much of the harm from a systemically important firm’s failure would be externalized onto the public, including ordinary citizens impacted by an economic collapse, such a firm can engage in risk-taking ventures with positive expected value to its investors but …

Strategic Risk Management In Agriculture, Steven Slezak

Steven Slezak

A presentation on the risk management issues that impact strategy in agribusiness and agriculture operations.

The Mess At Morgan: Risk, Incentives And Shareholder Empowerment, Jill E. Fisch

All Faculty Scholarship

The financial crisis of 2008 focused increasing attention on corporate America and, in particular, the risk-taking behavior of large financial institutions. A growing appreciation of the “public” nature of the corporation resulted in a substantial number of high profile enforcement actions. In addition, demands for greater accountability led policymakers to attempt to harness the corporation’s internal decision-making structure, in the name of improved corporate governance, to further the interest of non-shareholder stakeholders. Dodd-Frank’s advisory vote on executive compensation is an example.

This essay argues that the effort to employ shareholders as agents of public values and, thereby, to inculcate corporate …

An Evaluation Of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return And Pitfalls, Francis Koh, David K. C. Lee, Kok Fai Phoon

David LEE Kuo Chuen

Hedge funds are collective investment vehicles fast becoming popular with high net worth individuals as well as institutional investors. These are funds that are often established with a special legal status that allows their investment managers a free hand to use derivatives, short sell and exploit leverage to raise returns and cushion risk. Given that they have substantial latitude to invest, it is instructive to examine the performance of hedge funds as compared to other forms of managed funds. This paper provides an overview of hedge funds and discusses their empirical risk and return profiles. It also poses some concerns …

Financial Risk Management: A Case Study Of The 2010 Winter Olympic Games In Vancouver, Canada, Jillian R. Shoop

Recreation, Parks, and Tourism Administration

Businesses take risks to progress a company forward, but management of that risk is essential for success. Companies can quickly identify early warning signs by creating an ever-evolving financial plan, which also strengthens the company’s vision, mission, goals, and objectives. The purpose of this study was to conduct a case study in financial risk management of the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic Games. The organization was evaluated based on an instrument created by the researcher to examine the Vancouver Organizing Committee’s financial risk management plan. The study showed that the Vancouver Organizing Committee created efficient management plans for potential risks and …

The Bankruptcy-Law Safe Harbor For Derivatives: A Path-Dependence Analysis, Steven L. Schwarcz, Ori Sharon

Faculty Scholarship

U.S. bankruptcy law grants special rights and immunities to creditors in derivatives transactions, including virtually unlimited enforcement rights. This article argues that these rights and immunities result from a form of path dependence, a sequence of industry-lobbied legislative steps, each incremental and in turn serving as apparent justification for the next step, without a rigorous and systematic vetting of the consequences. Because the resulting “safe harbor” has not been fully vetted, its significance and utility should not be taken for granted; and thus regulators, legislators, and other policymakers—whether in the United States or abroad—should not automatically assume, based on its …

Regulating Systemic Risk In Insurance, Daniel Schwarcz, Steven L. Schwarcz

Faculty Scholarship

As exemplified by the dramatic failure of AIG, insurance companies and their affiliates played a central role in the 2008 global financial crisis. It is therefore not surprising that the Dodd-Frank Act—the United States’ primary legislative re-sponse to the crisis—contained an entire title dedicated to insurance regulation, which has traditionally been the responsibility of individual states. The most important insurance-focused reforms in Dodd-Frank empower the Federal Reserve Bank to impose an additional layer of regulatory scrutiny on top of state insurance regulation for a small number of “systemically important” nonbank financial companies, such as AIG. This Article argues, however, that …