Business Commons^™

Determinants Of Dow Jones Returns, Cory Sloan

Honors Projects

As of 2010, there was $14 trillion invested in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and $55 trillion invested in stock markets worldwide. In this study, we use the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to identify the main determinants of the returns of the stocks that compose the Dow Jones for the period 1990-2011. We test several hypotheses on the relationship between firm specific variables such as Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield, Book-Market ratio, previous returns and the stock returns. We also document the relationship between several macroeconomic factors including T-bill rate, Default Spread, Term Spread, Unemployment, Real GDP and Inflation and …

Sustainability Of Mfis Through Governance Mechanisms: A Cross-Country Analysis Of Regulation On Outreach And Operational Self Sufficiency, Daniel Muwamba

College of Management Honors Theses

Poverty is an age long problem that has been part of mankind ever since civilization and the fight against poverty is as old. There are many efforts to fight poverty of which microfinance is one. One theory to explain prevalence of poverty especially in the age of capitalism is that poor enterprising people cannot lift themselves out of poverty because they lack capital to develop their enterprises. Start up businesses and enterprises commonly start operations with credit support from financial institutions but there are prerequisites to attaining this credit and numerous poor individuals do not possess these prerequisites. Such individuals …

Three Essays On Banking Foreign Direct Investment, Tamrat Workalemahu Gashaw

Dissertations

This dissertation investigates three aspects of banking foreign direct investment (BFDI). One striking development in the banking sector over the past two decades is the significant increase in BFDI. Multinational banks are now major players in the global financial system in terms of their asset positions, loan amounts, and operational scales. Despite this significant trend in BFDI, few empirical studies exist explaining observed international BFDI trends.

The first essay investigates the factors determining a bank’s decision to invest abroad. I first develop a two-asset portfolio selection model to identify determinant factors, and then employ a three-way error component model for …

Suntrust Portfolio Recommendations: Crummer Investment Management [2012], Boston Russell, Fernanda Vanetta, Josh Aguilar, Ian Aguilar, John Humphrey, Carly Apap, Mike Hoffecker, Chad Karime, Chris Brinkman

Crummer Truist Portfolios

The primary difference between this and last year is that the markets appear to support the recovery. Last year market performance lagged behind the nascent recovery. Eventually headwinds from Greece and the developing world caused a flight to quality that suppressed market activity even as the US economy grew slowly. This year we are looking at a significantly more confident capital market. Some of the fears stemming from the European debt crisis have abated. Employment has stabilized significantly. The market has spent the better part of 2012 growing with renewed confidence. Moreover, the growth has resembled a classic recovery, with …

Firm Location And Corporate Debt, Matteo P. Arena, Michael Dewally

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

This study examines the influence of a firm’s geographical location on corporate debt and provides evidence that the higher cost of collecting information on firms distant from urban areas has significant implications on a wide array of corporate debt characteristics. We find that rural firms face higher debt yield spreads and attract smaller and less prestigious bank syndicates than urban firms. Rural firms attempt to reduce their informational disadvantage by relying more on relationship banking. Our results on the effect of location on corporate debt are robust to the inclusion of an extensive set of firm and issue characteristics.

A Training Manual: To Increase Performance In Cost Management Of A Las Vegas Nightclub For Operations Managers, Mark F. Staudinger

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The purpose of this paper is to write a training manual on cost management for operating managers in the Las Vegas nightclub industry. The manual will be designed to be used as a tool to control and manage costs for managers responsible for making decisions that directly affect controllable costs. These decisions include but are not limited to staffing and par levels, price points, purchasing, and staff training and monitoring.

A New Non-Parametric Test For Umbrella Alternatives, Gilbert Ngwa Muma

Dissertations

The Mann-Whitney statistics have commonly been used as a building block for many tests involving ordered and umbrella alternatives. Such tests are based on pair wise information that is obtained from all Ck 2 pairs of samples. This dissertation introduces a new nonparametric test for testing umbrella alternatives in a completely randomized one way design. This test is based on information obtained from a subset of the Ck 3 trios of samples. Unlike most existing tests for umbrella alternatives, the new test lays emphasis on the importance of testing across the peak of the umbrella, thereby rendering the new test …

Global Financial Risks, Cvar And Contagion Management, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers was the 9/11 on Wall Street, and many articles had been written on the changes in the global risk landscape that followed. However, there is scarcity of rigorous studies using empirical data and advanced econometric methods to verify such a change and the nature of such a change. In this paper, we provide rigorous analyses of statistically significant changes in global financial risks and sharp increases in conditional Value-at-Risk after September 2008. We perform statistical analyses using conditional distributions on the tail losses of equity portfolios constructed from the stock indexes of six …

San Diego Center For Children Audit Committee Handbook, San Diego Center For Children

Finance

2012 edition of the San Diego Center for Children's Audit Committee handbook.

Acquisition Program Problem Detection Using Text Mining Methods, Trevor P. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This research provides program analysts and Department of Defense leadership with an approach to identify problems in real-time for acquisition contracts. Specifically, we test the abilities of statistical algorithms using text mining techniques to detect unusual changes in acquisition programs’ cost estimates at the completion of the programs. Currently, the government purchases monthly written reports, an informational tool on status of an acquisition program, but has not been integrated into problem prediction analysis. We center our research on the following two questions: First, can we quantify the qualitative written reports? Second, can we use these quantifications of the texts to …

Minuteman Iii Cost Per Alert Hour Analysis, Allen R. Miller

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis analyzes the cost associated with the Minuteman III (MM III) weapon system. The research develops three models for determining MM III costs per alert hour (CPAH). The first model is based on the Air Force Cost Analysis Improvement Group cost per flying hour model. The model is modified to include depot level reparables, consumables, and personnel costs. The second model is based on the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Cost Analysis Improvement Group cost per flying hour model and is formulated using service-wide data from the Air Force Total Ownership Cost tool. The third model is a …

An Evaluation Of The Argentinean Basic Trainer Aircraft Domestic Development Project, Guillermo A. Stahl

Theses and Dissertations

The Argentine Air Force (AAF) is facing increasing challenges in maintaining and sustaining trainer aircraft. The current trainer aircraft used by the AAF face obsolescence issues and decreased serviceability. Argentina used to have the largest aircraft industry among the Latin America countries, but a number of factors such as not maintaining objectives and policies over time undermined its consolidation and were instrumental in Argentina losing its leadership position. To meet AAF requirements and revive Argentina's domestic aircraft industry, an indigenous basic trainer aircraft project is proposed. The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the project's viability using a multi-criteria …

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Flight Test Approval Process And Its Implications: A Methodological Approach To Capture And Evaluate Hidden Costs And Value In The Overall Process, Tuan U. Tran

Theses and Dissertations

The advancement in small unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) technology has brought a new revolution in the military domain. Their uses have become more synonymous with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions. Concerns over their flight test safety and accountability have been addressed in multiple policies to mitigate mishaps and increase proper accountability. However, current DoD and FAA mandated regulations and policies concerning UAV flight tests are sometimes considered slow and time-consuming, which may lead to delays in UAV research and development. This study explores the quantitative and qualitative measure of benefits associated with an abbreviated flight test process for SUAVs. Specifically, …

Hedge Fund Return Correlation Under Extreme Market Condition, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

How dependent are returns across hedge fund investment strategies? We estimate the probability that each investment strategy performs poorly when other investment strategies are delivering extreme negative returns. Under extreme market conditions, we find that event driven, distressed debt, and equity long/short funds exhibit the highest correlation with other styles while commodity trading advisors, macro, and equity market neutral funds exhibit the lowest correlation. In addition, we show that Asia-focused event driven and equity market neutral funds provide diversification for investors holding US- and Europe-focused funds.

Walking The Talk Of Wall Street, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The rules of the game on Wall Street may be ever changing but a professor of economics at Princeton University, Burton Malkiel, has held on to his views on how the game should be played for almost four decades.

Markowitz 2.0: Innovations For Asset Allocation, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

The idea of conducting financial analysis on asset classes, while widely accepted today, was a new concept in the 1950s. It was so new that Nobel Prize winner in economics Harry Markowitz almost did not receive his doctorate because his thesis on portfolio optimisation was deemed as “not economics” by his supervisor. Dr Paul Kaplan, quantitative research director at Morningstar, introduces an updated model of Markowitz’s portfolio optimisation model at a seminar in SMU.

Do External Financial Statement Auditors Sufficiently Adjust Their Audit Plans For Automated-Control Deficiencies?, Daniel D. Selby

Accounting Faculty Publications

Shelton (1999) found that experience, based on rank, mitigates the influence of less-than diagnostic evidence in going concern assessments. But, numerous studies (e.g., Abdolmohammadi and Wright 1987) question the external validity of studies that use rank to determine experience. I suspect that specialized domain experience is a better measure because all auditor ranks do not have procedural knowledge in going concern decisions but many auditors may have procedural knowledge in audit planning (AICPA 2008) and automated controls (Hunton et al. 2004). I investigate whether external financial statement auditors (henceforth auditors) sufficiently adjust their audit plans for material-automated-control-weaknesses. I determine the …

Walking The Talk Of Wall Street, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Years after he theorised that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at stock listings can select a portfolio that would perform as well as one chosen by experts, Princeton economist Burton Malkiel is sticking by it. In the tenth edition of his investment classic, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Malkiel explains why the experts are overrated, and why sticking with a buy-and-hold strategy using a broad stock market index fund will outperform the professionally managed ones.

Financial Framework For Global Investment And Implications, Robert Ranish, Pawel Mensz

Finance Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to describe a valuation decision model for a firm in a multi -country environment. The paper extends the works of Myers, Myers and Pogue and Lev to include individual investment project decisions to the global marketplace. The model integrates the buy or builds decision, the location of production, distribution decision and tax effects into the capital investment decision of the firm. The model shows that a firm's production decision (buy or build), the customer location and tax effects are interdependent. The model to optimize the value of the firm is a function of the …

A Utility Based Approach To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

A key issue in the estimation of energy hedges is the hedgers’ attitude towards risk which is encapsulated in the form of the hedgers’ utility function. However, the literature typically uses only one form of utility function such as the quadratic when estimating hedges. This paper addresses this issue by estimating and applying energy market based risk aversion to commonly applied utility functions including log, exponential and quadratic, and we incorporate these in our hedging frameworks. We find significant differences in the optimal hedge strategies based on the utility function chosen.

A Theory Of Strategic Mergers, Gennaro Bernile, Evgeny Lyandres, Alexei Zhdanov

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine firms’ strategic incentives to engage in horizontal mergers. In a real options framework, we show that strategic considerations may explain abnormally high takeover activity during periods of positive and negative demand shocks. Importantly, this pattern emerges solely as a result of firms’ strategic interaction in output markets. We show that the U-shaped relation between the state of demand and the propensity of firms to merge, documented in past studies, is driven by horizontal mergers in industries that are: (1) relatively more concentrated, (2) characterized by relatively strong competitive interaction among firms, and (3) characterized by relatively low merger-related …

Hedge Funds And Analyst Conflict Of Interest, Sung Gon Chung, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Are sell-side analysts reluctant to go against the investment views of their hedge fund clients? We show that analysts tend to upgrade stocks recently bought and downgrade stocks recently sold by hedge funds. Relative to other buy and strong buy recommendations, similar recommendations on stocks predominantly held by hedge funds parlay into poorer three-month and six-month stock returns. Hedge funds concurrently offload their stock holdings when analysts issue flattering reports. In line with an agency based explanation, our results are more pronounced for important brokerage clients such as high dollar turnover hedge funds and hedge funds who are prime brokerage …

Rational Financial Management: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offerings, Michael Barclay, Fangjian Fu, Clifford Smith

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Current theories of capital structure have difficulty explaining the aspects of financing behavior we document. In contrast to the tradeoff theory, seasoned equity offers frequently move firms away from their target leverage ratios. At odds with the pecking-order theory, SEO firms typically are financially healthy companies with low leverage, unused debt capacity and substantial cash balances. Inconsistent with the market-timing theory, SEOs appear to be driven by capital requirements associated with large investment projects rather than by market-timing considerations. Moreover, firms issue debt following SEOs, not only to finance investment, but to increase leverage toward its target level. Each of …

Spin-Offs And Operating Performance, Gary L. Caton, Jeremy C. Goh, Frank Kerins

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the relation between changes in industry-adjusted operating performance associated with corporate spin-offs and the market’s assessment of the spin-off as either a value increasing or value decreasing activity. I find that the average change in industry-adjusted operating performance associated with my sample of spin-offs is not significantly different from zero. However, I also present evidence suggesting that this average result is misleading because some spin-offs appear to be value increasing while others are value decreasing. I establish that a positive and significant relation exists between parent company revaluation and a) the change in industry-adjusted operating performance of …

San Diego Center For Children Finance Manual, San Diego Center For Children

Finance

2012 edition of the San Diego Center for Children's Finance Committee handbook.

Streaks In Earnings Surprises And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Roger K. Loh, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

The gambler's fallacy [Rabin, M. 2002. Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. Quart. J. Econom.117(3) 775–816] predicts that trends bias investor expectations. Consistent with this prediction, we find that investors underreact to streaks of consecutive earnings surprises with the same sign. When the most recent earnings surprise extends a streak, post-earnings-announcement drift is strong and significant. In contrast, the drift is negligible following the termination of a streak. Indeed, streaks explain about half of the post-earnings-announcement drift in our sample. Our results are robust to more general definitions of trends than streaks and a battery …

Analysis Of The Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit) Industry, Frederic Juillet

MBA Student Scholarship

In 2009, most REITs opted for the recapitalization of their balance sheets in order to respond to the recent global credit crisis, thus reducing their leverage and strengthening their financial statements (REIT, 2011b). In 2011, the REIT industry represented $54.3 billion in revenue and a profit of $7.8 billion. The industry annual growth expectation for the next 5 years (from 2011 to 2016) is 5.1% or $69.7 billion (IBISWorld, 2011b). The Hotel & Motel industry counted 14 REITs in the lodging/resort sector in the U.S. (REIT, 2011c) and represented 10.5% of the equity REIT Industry (IBISWorld, 2011b). The REIT structure …

Large Mutual Fund Families: Bigger May Not Always Be Better, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Size is not everything but it may be intuitive for the novice investor to place his money in a mutual fund from large fund families thinking that it will outperform the smaller ones.

Upjohn Institute Policy Paper: Public Pension Crisis And Investment Risk Taking: Underfunding, Fiscal Constraints, Public Accounting, And Policy Implications, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Public pension funds that cover retirement benefits for almost 20 million active or retired employees have been significantly underfunded. An important, though largely overlooked, issue related to pension underfunding is the excessive investment risk levels assumed by public plans. Our analysis suggests government accounting standards strongly affect public fund investment risk, as higher return assumptions (used to discount pension liabilities) are associated with higher investment risk.

Public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets …

Large Mutual Fund Families: Bigger May Not Always Be Better, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Investments are vital to one’s financial freedom. But investment strategy is an art which not everybody can master. Those who are new to investing may see mutual funds as an easy tool to make money. It has been traditionally thought that larger mutual fund families tend to perform better than their smaller counterparts. Do they really?