Business Commons^™

مقارنة بعض معايير تشخيص انموذج Arx بأستعمال ألمحاكاة بحث مستل من رسالة ألماجستير ألمعنونة “مقارنة بعض معايير تشخيص وطرائق تقدير انموذج Arx مع تطبيق عملي على سعر صرف ألدينار ألعراقي”, فراس أحمد محمد, عبدالرحمن جاسم محمد

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يعد أنموذج ARX من ألنماذج ألمهمة في موضوع تحليل ألسلاسل ألزمنية, وهنالك خطوات عديدة ومتسلسلة لغرض بناء هذا ألانموذج ومن هذه ألخطوات تشخيص رتب ألانموذج. وقد تم في هذا ألبحث مقارنة أربع معايير للتشخيص وهي معيار معلومات أكياكي (AIC), ومعيار بعد ألوصف ألأصغر(MDL), ومعيار Hannan&Quinn(HQIC), والوسيط للمعيارين (MDL) و (HQIC) وسيرمز له MMH)). و تمت ألمقارنة في مجال ألزمن Time Domain بأستعمال ألمحاكاة استنادا الى عدد ألمرات ألتي ينجح فيها كل معيار في أختيار ألرتب ألصحيحة للأنموذجو لأربعة نماذج ARX برتب مختلفة ,(1,1,1),(1,2,1) ,(2,1,1)(2,2,1) وعند حجوم عينات مختلفة. وقد تبين أن ألمعايير MDL, HQIC, MMH كفوءة في اختيار رتب ألأنموذج, …

On The Derivation Of Estimators Of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (Fgt) Poverty Indices, Oyedeji I. Osowole, Adebayo T. Bamiduro

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Poverty analysis has relied heavily on data in summarized form and this has created dearth of knowledge on the statistical properties of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) poverty indices. This study derived estimators of FGT poverty indices from first principles in an attempt to provide an insight into some intrinsic characteristics of FGT indices. The estimators are found to be reasonably unbiased and consistent. The estimates of the indices obtained from the estimators are approximately 53%, 22% and 12% for the head count, poverty gap and square poverty gap indices. From the conventional method, the estimates are approximately 52%, 21% and 11% respectively. …

Measuring Technical Efficiency Of Wireless And Wired Technologies In Nigeria Cyber Cafés, Sule Magaji, Eke I. Chukwuemeka

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the technical efficiency (TE) of two different remote internet access methods, wireless and wired in Nigeria using the stochastic frontier production function analysis. Primary data were obtained through the use of a set of questionnaire from four hundred and fifty representative samples of cyber café operators. The results show that in Nigeria, in spite of the acclaimed superiority of wireless technologies internationally, wired technology (within the context of Nigeria’s socio-economic constraints) is (still) more efficient technically with mean technical efficient indices of 0.914 and 0.797 respectively. The analysis also suggests that age and years of education of …

Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

To determine the relative importance of both the domestic and external influences on monetary policy formulation, this paper constructs a broad monetary conditions index for Nigeria. It brings together the three key channels of monetary transmission, namely interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. The result gives dominance to exchange rate channel, followed by credit channel and interest rate channel. The resultant monetary conditions index traces fairly well the policy direction of the Central Bank of Nigeria for the studied period, hence can serve as an adequate gauge of monetary policy stance of the Bank.

Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary-fiscal policies interaction on price and output growth in Nigeria. The dynamic correlations of variables have been captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. From innovation analyses, the results suggest that the policy variables money supply and government revenue have more positive impact on price and economic growth in Nigeria specifically in the long run, thus some time with lag. Although monetary and fiscal policy variables have a dominant effect on economic activity, it is clear from this study that economic activity is dominated by its own dynamics in most of …

The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study explores the relationship between savings and investment in Nigeria during the period 1980-2011. Unlike previous studies, this study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to test for long run relationship. The short-run dynamics are also captured from error correction model (ECM).The results of the Bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. This result is consistent with a number of earlier studies reviewed in the literature that found saving and investment to be cointegrated in the long run. The results also support the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) hypothesis that postulates low capital …

Exchange–Rates Volatility In Nigeria: Application Of Garch Models With Exogenous Break, Bala A. Dahiru, Joseph O. Asemota

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines exchange–rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange–rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break in respect of the US dollar rates with exogenously determined break points. Our results reveal presence of volatility in the three currencies and equally indicate that most of the asymmetric models rejected the existence of a leverage effect except for models with volatility break. Evaluating the models through standard information criteria, volatility persistence and the log likelihood …

The Role Of Central Bank Of Nigeria’S Analytical Balance Sheet And Monetary Survey In Monetary Policy Implementation, Sani I. Doguwa, Sunday N. Essien

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the significance of Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary aggregates in the implementation of monetary policy. The Analytical Balance Sheet and monetary survey are shown to be useful tools in the analysis of monetary and credit developments in the economy. It also discusses the role of the aggregates in monetary policy implementation through the adjusted money multiplier, which explains how policy actions of the CBN influence the broad money supply. Finally, the paper attempts to estimate the Taylor-type monetary policy reaction function for Nigeria using the monetary policy rate and reserve money since December 2006 when the …

Analysis Of Low-Cost Carriers In The Post-Soviet States, Tamilla Curtis, Dawna L. Rhoades

Publications

The research paper provides an overview of low-cost carrier (LCC) development in the post- Soviet states with the analysis of the largest aviation market in Russia. The LCC model seeks to achieve a competitive advantage through the reduction of operating costs below the traditional airline model. Since the post-Soviet states are emerging economies, airlines face a high level of uncertainty and experience a number of unique problems. While the global community enjoys the benefits offered by LCCs, the question remains why this model has not been successful in the 15 newly formed countries, with the exception of the Hungarian low-cost …

Expenditure Comparison Of Overseas, Canadian, And Domestic Nonresident Travelers To Montana: 2012, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report gives a comparison of overseas, Canadian and domestic visitation and spending during 2012. It includes total expenditures and average daily spending in different spending categories.

Ancillary Revenue And Price Fairness: An Exploratory Study Pre & Post Flight, Blaise P. Waguespack, Tamilla Curtis

Publications

The growing impact of Ancillary Revenue on consumer choice and shopping behavior continues to be a highly debated issue. In the US, the Department of Transportation (DOT) has stepped into the debate and is investigating the possibility of new rules on how airlines must report and display such ancillary offerings. While the DOT collects data, reports on the amount of ancillary revenue earned by the airlines continue to rise. Examining past research on price fairness from the marketing literature and the impact of revenue management on price fairness from the aviation literature, this article joins new research appearing on the …

Session 4-2-E: The Effects Of Gaming Tax/Retention Rate On Casino Performance, Will E. Cummings

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Overview

Gaming Taxes affect investors in and operators of casinos

... and therefore casino performance

Gravity Models in general High variance from classical ideal

Variance tells us something about the impact of gaming tax rates

Session 4-1-B: Casino Legalization As An Evolutionary Game -- Who Will Be The Next?, Miao He

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

For the community/governor who has a strong preposition to casino gaming (e.g., gambler, religious group), his/her motivation to participate/accept casino legalization is

∆P_AE_A+t_A>c_î and ∆P_B(R_B+E_B)+t_B>c_Ĵ

What’s the motivation for the other community/governors who are neutral to casino gaming?

How the casino legalization process evolved and finally reached the equilibrium state?

Session 4-1-D: The Ant And The Grasshopper: Western Casino Operators In Macau And Singapore, Sudhir Kale

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Objectives

Understand the impact of market conditions and managerial orientation on employee satisfaction, organizational identification, and service quality in Macau/ Singapore Casino Industry.

Highlight long-term adverse impact of poor service quality on market share and profitability.

Provide guidelines for action.

Session 4-1-C: Social Gaming: Problems, Policies And Predictions, Keith Whyte

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Discusses key issues with social gaming.

Session 3-4-B: Impacts Of The Structure Of The Casino Industry, William N. Thompson, Catherine Prentice

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

This paper looks at impacts of the structures of casino industries in 13 American states venues. The legalization of casinos has been a major policy issue in scores of national and sub-national venues over the past 60 years. Among the critical issues in the legalization process has been the subject of whether casino establishments should be authorized as singular, that is, monopoly, entities in a specific location (city, state, or nation) much as public utilities, or they should be licensed in an open market free competitive manner. A middle ground approach find venues allowing a limited number of licenses, ergo, …

Session 3-4-B: Evaluating The Performance Of Macao’S Gaming Industry, Day-Yang Liu

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The purpose of research

The stringently competitive nature of the casino entertainment market in the Macao necessitates that managers fully utilize knowledge expertise to increase efficiency in operations management.

Therefore, this study employs data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to estimate the efficiency and productivity of the casino entertainment industry in Macao.

Session 3-3-F: Measuring The Price Of Discrimination With Data On Poker Games, Ingo Fiedler

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

Economic theory suggests that discrimination is price sensitive and money an equalizer

This means that discrimination decreases the higher the private costs for the discriminator

Economic reasoning: Discrimination comes at a price for the discriminator

• Example: an employer discriminates against potential employees with a non-white skin tone and thus may miss the best employees who then work for a competitor.
• Imperfect competition leads to rents and rents can be used to discriminate and they can be discrimination in itself. [Jomo, 2003].
• Competition reduces discrimination

Session 3-2-B: Paspa: An Unconstitutional Patent, Kevin P. Braig

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (“PASPA”) is a patent monopoly because the statute (A) imitates the Crown’s practice of allocating markets by patent; (B) functions like a patent issued under the United States Patent Code; and (C) imposes monopoly-like costs upon the public. The Constitution’s Patent Clause is a brilliant public financing scheme and unique in that it is the only grant of power to Congress in the Constitution that begins with a specific prescription of proper legislative purpose. Congress cannot grant just any person a patent monopoly for any purpose. Rather, Congress can grant a patent monopoly …

Session 3-1-E: Modeling Change In The Profile Of The Atlantic City Visitor, Brian J. Tyrrell, Israel Posner Ph.D.

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Atlantic City casino market has faced increasing competition over the past decade, particularly since the introduction of Pennsylvania gaming in 2006. In response to this increased competition, the State of New Jersey, through legislation, created a public private partnership to both redevelop parts of the city and devote significant marketing dollars into shaping the image of the city. The private side of that partnership, the Atlantic City Alliance (ACA), found in their earliest consumer research that Atlantic City’s image as a gaming destination was well established, but that the city was less known for the retail, entertainment and restaurants …

Session 3-1-B: Online Gambling And Money Laundering, Ingo Fiedler

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

Money laundering is the process by which criminals attempt to conceal or disguise the nature, location, source, ownership or control of their ill-gotten gains, so as to make it possible to invest or consume the proceeds of crime (Masciandaro1999)

Money laundering (Unger, 2007):

• distorts prices, consumption, saving and investment rates;
• increases the volatility of import/export levels, the demand for money, interest and exchange rates, as well as the availability of credit;
• threatens the solvability and liquidity, as well as the reputation and profitability of the financial sector;
• Endangers the continuance of foreign direct investment (FDI)
• Acts as a multiplier …

Session 2-4-E: Financial Evaluation Commonalities And Distinctions Expressed By 10-Ks With Two Libertarian Hospitality Segments: Casino Gaming And Gentlemen’S Clubs, David J. Paster

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Premise

Libertarian hospitality ventures are significantly and fundamentally different than current common hospitality fields such as lodging and restaurants due to their distinct business model composition.

Session 2-4-B: Intellectual Capital And The Gaming Industry, Mikael B. Ahlgren

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Description of what intellectual capital is.

Session 2-4-B: The Boomerang Effect, Jonathan Galaviz

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Today's Talk:

1. Ideas, not politics

2. Strategic outlook

3. Macro Focused

Session 2-4-B: Las Vegas: The Houston Of The Gaming Industry?, Bo J. Bernhard

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Conclusions

Las Vegas is and must become an intellectual capital of the global gaming industry.

Internet gaming: new threats, new opportunities

Session 2-3-E: An Analysis Of Ahp On Investment Project Evaluation: A Case Study Of Matsu Integrated Resort, Day-Yang Liu

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Background

Governments are increasingly liberalizing gambling in hope of reaping economic and developmental benefits.

The business models of gambling industry are developing toward the concept of large, integrated resort-casino.

The referendum of allowing casino gaming business in Matsu was passed on July 7th, 2012.

It is expected to improve transportation facilities, boost local economy and tourism.

This gives Matsu the opportunity to build the first integrated resort-casino in the Taiwan area.

Session 2-3-E: Integrated Resort And Casino Law In An Asset-Inflated Japanese Economy, Sasaki Kazuaki

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Japan has one of the big gaming markets, which includes various games such as lottery, horse racing, motorcycle racing, bicycle racing, motorboat racing, and pachinko and pachinko-slot machines. While games like lottery, horse racing, motorcycle racing, speed boat racing, and bicycle racing are managed by the public sector, Pachinko and Pachinko-slot games are managed by private companies. The Japanese gaming market is worth around 240 billion US $.

Session 2-2-E: Slots Are To Las Vegas As Baccarat Is To Macau: A Game Analysis, Arthur Sai-Wai Wong

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Money is reeling in the casinos in Las Vegas, while chips are rolling in the casinos in Macau. These two different phrases exactly symbolize the ways how these two different gaming jurisdictions make their prosperity.

There are several reels in the slot machines and as they are spun thousands and millions of times…money reels in, it creates the profit for the casinos in Las Vegas.

Baccarat players wager dead chips in the VIP rooms rolling thousands and millions of times…money rolls in, it creates the profit for the casinos in Macau.

Session 2-2-E: The Growth Trends In Macau’S Gambling Industy: A Scenario Analysis, Zhonglu Zeng

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Macau’s Gambling Industry: A Brief Review

Macau’s gambling industry has experienced tremendous growth in the past 27 years. In 1985, the gambling revenue was only US$0.23 billion; in 2012, the figure reached US$38 billion. The compound annual growth rate is 22%.

Session 2-1-E: Betting Market Efficiency Implications Of Different Structures: Bookmakers Vs. Exchanges, David Mcdonald, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, John Peirson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Outline

(i) Quick definition of market efficiency

(ii) Theoretical models lead to general predictions…

(iii) ...which lead to specific predictions about betting markets

(iv) Results of testing the predictions using real betting market data

(v) Implications and conclusion