Business Commons^™

Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Racheal O. Adebayo, Abdullahi A. Shettima, John O. Anigwe, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study analyzed the relationship between relevant macroeconomic variables and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Nigeria based on the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated to obtain the equilibrium REER while the resultant levels of misalignment were computed for the period 1990 - 2014. Model results indicated that terms of trade and degree of trade openness are significant determinants of the REER, implying that trade policies matter for Naira REER movements. The error correction model indicated that 3.3% of disequilibrium error is corrected within a quarter. On the average, the …

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment And Economic Growth In Nigeria (1960-2011), Waheed O. Ibrahim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in Nigeria using an annual data spanning 1960 to 2011. The augmented growth model was estimated using purchasing power parity (PPP) and generalized method of moment (GMM) approaches. Through series of iterative processes, it was observed that it will take four years for the exchange rate to revert back to equilibrium. The result from the PPP approach shows that the period of flexible exchange rate regime is characterized by a relatively lower real exchange rate misalignment over time compared with the fixed exchange rate regime. The …

Exchange Rate Policy And Falling Crude Oil Prices: Effect On The Nigerian Stock Market, Terfa W. Abraham

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of crude oil price movement on the Nigerian stock market and the role of exchange rate as a plausible countercyclical policy tool. Daily data on All Share Index of the Nigerian stock market, crude oil prices and exchange rate, were collected for two periods: 2008-2009 and 2012-2015. Results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model show that oil prices are positively related with the performance of the Nigerian stock market thus would drag the market down in times of turmoil. Howbeit, devaluation of the naira is found to be effective in cushioning the effect of …

An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Impact Of Public Debt In Nigeria, Sunday N. Essien, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Michael K. Mba, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the impact of public sector borrowings on prices, interest rates, and output in Nigeria. It utilized a Vector Autoregressive framework, the Granger causality test, impulse response, and variance decomposition of the various innovations to study the impact. It found that shock to external debt stock increases prime lending rate, but with a lag. However, the level of external and domestic debt over the period of this study had no significant impact on the general price level and output.

Empirical Model For Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Go-Garch Approach, Godknows Isenah, Olusanya E. Olubusoye

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study aimed at determining a set of superior generalized orthogonal-GARCH (GO-GARCH) models for forecasting time-varying conditional correlations and variances of five foreign exchange rates vis-à-vis the Nigerian Naira. Daily data covering the period 02/01/2009 to 19/03/2015 was used, and four estimators of the GO-GARCH model were considered for fitting the models. Forecast performance tests were conducted using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) and the model confidence set (MCS) tests procedures. The DM test indicates preference for the GO-GARCH model estimated with nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator – denoted as GOGARCH-NLS, while the MCS test determined a set of superior models (SSM) …

Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the link between unemployment and monetary policy in Nigeria using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework for the period 1983q1 – 2014q1. The paper investigates the effect of structural change by identifying three structural breakpoints and incorporating them into the VAR model as dummy variables. The results show that a positive shock to policy rate raises unemployment over a 10 quarter period. In addition, all the variables used as proxy in the model jointly Granger cause unemployment, implying the existence of a dynamic relationship between monetary policy and unemployment in Nigeria.

Exchange Rate And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Abdulkadir I. Ali, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Mohammed A. Shettima, Solomon S. Zirra, Bola S. Falade, Michael J. Alenyi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper models the long-run relationship between the Bureau De Change exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria in a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) framework using daily data that spans from Jan 1, 2014 to Jul 31, 2015. Modeling BDC exchange rate and external reserves within this context can be motivated by the fact that the transition mechanism between the variables is controlled by the degree of BDC exchange rates premium which is within central bank of Nigeria’s policy oversight. The supLM test result indicates that there is a non-linear long-run relationship between the series, providing empirical support …

Analysis Of Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria (1981 – 2015), Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Adamu Ibrahim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria over the period 1981 – 2015, using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Empirical results indicated that inflation in Nigeria proxied by CPI exhibited a strong degree of inertia. The econometric results showed that past inflation and average rainfall appeared to have been the main determinants of inflationary process in Nigeria over the study period. We also found strong evidence of the importance of money supply in the inflation process, lending credence to the dominance of the monetarist proposition on inflation dynamics in Nigeria. Thus, the paper recommended among others, …

Fiscal Policy And Private Investment In Selected West African Countries, Joseph A. Omojolaibi, Tochi-Nze P. Okenesi, Ekundayo P. Mesagan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to examine the nexus between fiscal policy and private investment in five selected West African countries using annual data from 1993 to 2014. Employing Fixed Effect Model for Panel data ordinary least square approach, the results showed the existence of a significant crowding in effect of government capital expenditure and tax revenue while non-tax revenue showed a crowding out effect. Recurrent expenditure and external debt also showed crowding out effects but these were insignificant. The accelerator effect of output growth was also found to be insignificant across the countries over the time period. The study called …

Day-Of-The-Week Anomaly: An Illusion Or A Reality? Evidence From Naira/Dollar Exchange Rates, Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the day-of-the-week effect in the Nigerian foreign exchange market (Naira against the US dollars), its volatility as well as the asymmetric effects, for the period of 12th May 2009 to 12th June, 2015. The empirical results of GARCH-t(1,1), EGARCH-t(1,1), GJR-GARCH-t(1,1), IGARCH and the OLS methodology shows that the detection of the day-of-the-week effect is influenced by the choice of the volatility model applied. Similarly, the highest or lowest volatility market day goes with the influence of these models. Thus this study clearly support the argument of Charles (2010), that, the days of the week anomalies lies on …

Testing The Fisher Hypothesis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks And Adaptive Inflationary Expectations: Evidence From Nigeria, Yakubu A. Bello, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Suleiman Karu, Satumari A. Stephen, Raymond O. Ogbuka, Balarabe F. Usman, Oluwaseun D. Mimiko

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper tested for the validity of the Fisher hypothesis in Nigeria during the period 1970 – 2014. The Gregory and Hansen Co-integration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation, albeit with a structural break in October 2005. In addition, the obtained Fisher coefficient in the cointegrating relation was 0.08, implying a weak form of Fisher effect in the long-run. On the basis of these findings, we upheld a weak Fisher effect in the long-run and non-existence of Fisher effect in the short-run. This implied that short term nominal interest rate is a …

Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities, 2014, International Investment Statistics Office (Iiso)

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted in 2015 to determine the stock of foreign assets/liabilities of Nigerian enterprises as at end 2014. The survey collected relevant information from 740 enterprises while the analysis of survey data was done based on the recipient sectors as well as country of origin of the investments. Survey returns showed that total private foreign liabilities as at end-2014 was N15, 046.07 billion, down by 1.4 per cent from its level in 2013. Of this total, 99.8 per cent came in the form of foreign direct investments, while foreign …

Re-Introducing And Operationalizing Nigeria’S Flexible Exchange Rate Market, Godwin I. Emefiele

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This is an address presented to relevant stakeholders and the general public unveiling of the framework for re-introduction of Managed Float Exchange Rate System on 15th June 2016. The address included the broad framework and guidelines of the Flexible Exchange Rate Inter-bank Market, which we alluded to at the end of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of 24th May 2016.

Endogeneity In Ceo Power: A Survey And Experiment, Zhichuan Li

Business Publications

The endogeneity problem has always been one, if not the only, obstacle to understanding the true relationship between different aspects of empirical corporate finance. Variables are typically endogenous, instruments are scarce, and causality relations are complicated. As the first attempt to summarize different econometric methods that are commonly used to address endogeneity concerns in the context of corporate governance, we explore the relation between CEO power and firm performance, as an experiment, to illustrate how these methods can be used to mitigate the endogeneity problem and by how much. After carefully dealing with the endogeneity issues, we find strong evidence …

Indiana Council For Economic Education, Jeff Sanson

Purdue P-12 Networking Summit & Poster Session

The Indiana Council for Economic Education (ICEE), a center in the Department of Agricultural Economics prepare students to become active citizens and productive members of our economy by providing them with the ability to make sound economic and financial decisions.

This poster provides a summary of activities conducted throughout Indiana.

A Complement, Not A Competitor: How Public Markets Can Support Business Districts In Worcester, Ron M. Barron

Sustainability and Social Justice

The purpose of this paper is to examine the possible economic and community development impacts of entry-level public markets (e.g. fixed location markets, farmers markets, etc.) on the communities in which they operate. While there is extensive literature around their benefits to vendors, community health and public space, there is comparative little on the interplay between these markets and more traditional brick and mortar businesses. The background and definition of these markets, the basic common characteristics that define them, and some of the benefits they can offer for economic and community development are each explored. It then examines two different …

Corporate Responsibility In Peace Building, Conflict Prevention And Development: The Role Of The Mining Sector In Ghana, Abdul Karim Issifu

Journal of Interdisciplinary Conflict Science

This article seeks to explore the role of the mining sector in peace building, conflict prevention and community development in Ghana. After thoroughly reviewing secondary data, including articles, books, journals, newspapers, etc., via critical document review and qualitative research approaches the research found that, there is no legal document on CSR in Ghana, yet mining companies in a free will, have executed CSR programs laying down for peace, security and development in the country. More so, this article provides a theoretical support for the Integrative theory of CSR on the basis that, the socio-economic, political, cultural and environmental needs of …

On The Behavior Of Entrepreneurial Factor Supply To The Firm, Nicos Zafiris

The Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance

This paper draws on an existing, but little used, approach to the choices governing the supply of ‘entrepreneurial’, in the sense of ‘residually remunerated’, resources to an enterprise, especially post start up. It focuses in particular on the hybrid ‘own factor demand/supply curve’ to the firm of Bronfenbrenner (1960), but attempts to treat such supply in conjunction with ‘contractual’ employment of resources, thus making use of gearing and portfolio concepts. To achieve this, it is found necessary for the hybrid schedule to be reinterpreted and recast as the locus of the relevant utility maximising choices. A model is presented which …

Reanalyzing The Political Stability Of Britain's Democratization, Nathan R. Burton

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

A recent article in Journal of Economic History by Dasgupta and Ziblatt uses bond yields to analyze the political risk of the 19th century democratization legislation of Britain known as the Reform Acts. Dasgupta and Ziblatt find that the volatility of yields is relatively high during periods of legislation, and model the yields via GAM method, concluding that the political risk associated with the Reform Acts was high. I reproduce the study and comparing those times of 'high' volatility to all periods and find nothing to compare high-volatility periods to, suggesting that it is inconclusive whether the Reform Acts were …

The Taper Tantrum Of 2013: Momentum-Driven Or A Return To Fundamentals?, Colette L. Terhune

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study explores the driving force behind the Taper Tantrum of 2013. Following the Fed’s announcements of potential QE tapering, investors poured of the bond market, causing yields to rise sharply. This analysis seeks to determine whether this was a momentum-driven reaction or a return to fundamental values. Throughout this paper, fundamental determinants of bond prices and investor returns are combined with trading volume and bid-ask spread data to determine the motivating market force. The findings suggest that the Taper Tantrum was a return to fundamental bond prices following an asset bubble burst, likely due to momentum trading.

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

From Creativity To Team Innovation: Building The Bridge In Organizations, Jonathan Brown

Creativity and Change Leadership Graduate Student Master's Projects

The outcome of this project is a new model for team innovation. It was created as a result of the need for teams to be better prepared to innovate. The approach of this project was to investigate, clarify, combine, synthesize and finally propose useful ways to accelerate team innovation in organizations. It started with a diagram and evolved into an articulation of each step of the model. This prototype model is called Model for Purposeful Team Innovation. The model is divided in seven steps that include identity, mission, quality, targets for improvement, roadmap, execution, monitoring to assess the maturity and …

What Citizens Want To Know About Their Government’S Finances: Closing The Information Gap, Meagan Jordan, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Martin Mayer, Kaitrin Mahar

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

There is an information gap between citizens and their governments when it comes to government finances. The inherent complexity of fiscal policy makes it exceedingly difficult for effective public participation. Effective public participation in fiscal decision making must address informing or educating the citizenry with accurate and meaningful government financial data. Better understanding citizen wants and perceptions is critical to closing the information gap between users and providers of financial information. This study uses information gathered from focus groups with residents of Norfolk, Virginia that asks what government financial information they want and how to make that information useful. Results …

The Microfinance Industry In Bolivia, Jorge J. Eguino

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

In the international context, and particularly in Bolivia, microfinance and microcredit have been the subject of innumerable analyses. The arguments rely on the attributions of these two ways of intervention in financial services, as well as their impact with respect to poverty, their input, and their incidence on economic growth. Bolivia has contributed to the debate in these fields due to its experience with the microfinance system and its relevance to the country’s economy.

The purpose of this project is to describe the process of development and consolidation of the microfinance system in Bolivia. From a description to an analysis …

The Economic Impact Of The 2015 Conference Usa Baseball Tournament In Hattiesburg, Mississippi, Kyle A. Stoner

Honors Theses

This study aims to measure the economic impact of the 2015 Conference USA Baseball Tournament hosted by The University of Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Attendees of the event were selected at random to participate in an intercept survey to gauge financial data spent within the Forrest and Lamar County, Mississippi area. An Economic Modeling Systems International Input-Output analysis was used to process the data. This processed data was analyzed and results were determined based on the estimated multiplier and tax effect at the local and state level. These multiplier figures yielded a change in earnings in the local area …

Are Music Streaming Services Healthy For The Recorded Music Industry?, Elizabeth W. Pittman

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

To listen to music just a few hundred years ago would require hundreds of miles of travel, tons of wood and metal and ivory and copper strings, construction of a stage and audience platforms, human capital to perform the music of course, and lots of money. All of these variables would combine to produce an auditory experience of approximately 45 minutes total. Today, a single musician can produce the sound of dozens with just a laptop, and it can be consumed relatively cheaply with the click of a button. Digital services such as iTunes or Spotify give listeners access to …

Us Airport Ownership, Efficiency, And Heterogeneity, Levent Kutlu, Patrick Mccarthy

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

All US commercial airports are in the public sector yet not all have the same ownership type. For medium and large hub US airports we use stochastic frontier analysis to analyze the efficiency differences for alternative airport ownership types. We find that while form of ownership may matter for cost efficiency, in general its effect is relatively small. Yet type of public sector ownership does have cost efficiency implications in certain environments. Further, when heterogeneity is not controlled, the results change substantially so that type of ownership matters much more which demonstrates the importance of controlling for cross section heterogeneity.

The Opm Data Breach: Lessons Learned, Michael Wheat

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

In 2015 the federal government announced the largest data breach in United States government history. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) was hacked, and the personal information of more than 25 million American people was lost to foreign attackers. This incident has spawned concern and outrage about the security of government data in the emerging digital age.

Moving forward from the breach questions remain about how this event happened. It's clear that there were weaknesses that were taken advantage of by malicious threats abroad, and investigations into the attack have yielded surprising results. Not only was the security in place …

A Comparison Of Vacationer Spending Segments, Kara Grau, Norma P. Nickerson

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

The purpose of this study was to compare characteristics of vacationers segmented into three groups: high-spenders, mid-range spenders, and low-spenders. This report contains information comparing the similarities and differences between these three groups of vacation travelers in Montana during 2015.

Ez Timeout: The Business Plan, Simbarashe Chirara

Honors Theses

No abstract provided.