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Egalitarianism Against The Veil Of Ignorance, John E. Roemer Sep 2001

Egalitarianism Against The Veil Of Ignorance, John E. Roemer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

J. Rawls and R. Dworkin have each used veils of ignorance to justify equality (Rawls) or to compute what equality entails (Dworkin). J. Harsanyi has also derived a distributive ethic from a veil of ignorance argument, which, although not egalitarian, is believed by Harsanyi to be not excessively inegalitarian. Harsanyi’s analysis does not determine a unique social choice function, but rather a family of such functions. Here, by appending more information to Harsanyi’s environment, and an Axiom of Neutrality, I uniquely determine a social welfare function by extending Harsanyi’s argument. I show that this function is strongly inegalitarian, in that …


What We Owe Our Children, They Their Children, ..., John E. Roemer, Roberto Veneziani Sep 2001

What We Owe Our Children, They Their Children, ..., John E. Roemer, Roberto Veneziani

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Egalitarian theorists, since Rawls, have in the main advocated equalizing some objective measure of individual well-being, such as primary goods, functioning, or resources, rather than subjective welfare. This discussion, however, has assumed, implicitly, a static environment. By analyzing a society that survives for many generations, we demonstrate that equality of opportunity for some objective condition is incompatible with human development over time. We argue that this incompatibility can be resolved by equalizing opportunities for welfare. Thus, ‘subjectivism’ seems necessary if we are to hope for a society which can both equalize opportunities and support the development of human capacity over …


The Progress Of Computing, William D. Nordhaus Sep 2001

The Progress Of Computing, William D. Nordhaus

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The present study analyzes computer performance over the last century and a half. Three results stand out. First, there has been a phenomenal increase in computer power over the twentieth century. Performance in constant dollars or in terms of labor units has improved since 1900 by a factor in the order of 1 trillion to 5 trillion, which represent compound growth rates of over 30 percent per year for a century. Second, there were relatively small improvements in efficiency (perhaps a factor of ten) in the century before World War II. Around World War II, however, there was a substantial …


Value And Politics, John E. Roemer Sep 2001

Value And Politics, John E. Roemer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A brief, historical review of the study of the interdependency between politics and economic distribution is offered. While the impact of economic interests on politics has been acknowledged for thousands of years, and the impact of politics on distribution for hundreds, it is only in the last thirty years that formal models of the interdependency between economic distribution and politics have been formulated. A general model of political-economic equilibrium is proposed, in which political competition and economic distribution jointly determine each other. Several examples are given. The author proposes that political economy, conceived of as studying this process of joint …


Annual Report 1997, Bank Of Korea Aug 2001

Annual Report 1997, Bank Of Korea

Documents

No abstract provided.


School Subsidies For The Poor: Evaluating The Mexican Progresa Poverty Program, T. Paul Schultz Aug 2001

School Subsidies For The Poor: Evaluating The Mexican Progresa Poverty Program, T. Paul Schultz

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Delegated Monitors, Large And Small: The Development Of Germany’S Banking System, 1800-1914, Timothy W. Guinnane Aug 2001

Delegated Monitors, Large And Small: The Development Of Germany’S Banking System, 1800-1914, Timothy W. Guinnane

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich?Belief Selection In Complete And Incomplete Markets, Larry Blume, David Easley Aug 2001

If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich?Belief Selection In Complete And Incomplete Markets, Larry Blume, David Easley

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper provides an analysis of the asymptotic properties of consumption allocations in a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers. In particular we investigate the market selection hypothesis, that markets favor traders with more accurate beliefs. We show that in any Pareto optimal allocation whether each consumer vanishes or survives is determined entirely by discount factors and beliefs. Since equilibrium allocations in economies with complete markets are Pareto optimal, our results characterize the limit behavior of these economies. We show that, all else equal, the market selects for consumers who use Bayesian learning with the truth in the support …


Monetary Policy In Thailand: Current Challenges And Prospects, Pridiyathorn Devakula Jul 2001

Monetary Policy In Thailand: Current Challenges And Prospects, Pridiyathorn Devakula

Documents

No abstract provided.


Krung Thai Bank Pcl - Capital Intelligence Report, Rory Keelan, Darren Stubing Jul 2001

Krung Thai Bank Pcl - Capital Intelligence Report, Rory Keelan, Darren Stubing

Documents

No abstract provided.


Second Order Expansions For The Distribution Of The Maximum Likelihood Estimator Of The Fractional Difference Parameter, Offer Lieberman, Peter C.B. Phillips Jul 2001

Second Order Expansions For The Distribution Of The Maximum Likelihood Estimator Of The Fractional Difference Parameter, Offer Lieberman, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the fractional difference parameter in the Gaussian ARFIMA(0, d ,0) model is well known to be asymptotically N (0, 6/ π 2 ). This paper develops a second order asymptotic expansion to the distribution of this statistic. The correction term for the density is shown to be independent of d , so that the MLE is second order pivotal for d . This feature of the MLE is unusual, at least in time series contexts. Simulations show that the normal approximation is poor and that the expansions make significant improvements in accuracy.


Housing In The New Millennium: A Home Without Equity Is Just A Rental With Debt, Joshua Rosner Jun 2001

Housing In The New Millennium: A Home Without Equity Is Just A Rental With Debt, Joshua Rosner

Documents

No abstract provided.


India’S Reform Of External Sector Policies And Future Multilateral Trade Negotiations, T.N. Srinivasan Jun 2001

India’S Reform Of External Sector Policies And Future Multilateral Trade Negotiations, T.N. Srinivasan

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Inside The ‘Black Box’ Of Project Star: Estimation Of Peer Effects Using Experimental Data, Michael A. Boozer, Stephen E. Cacciola Jun 2001

Inside The ‘Black Box’ Of Project Star: Estimation Of Peer Effects Using Experimental Data, Michael A. Boozer, Stephen E. Cacciola

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Back From The Brink: Thailand's Response To The 1997 Economic Crisis, Ijaz Nabi, Jayasankar Shivakumar Jun 2001

Back From The Brink: Thailand's Response To The 1997 Economic Crisis, Ijaz Nabi, Jayasankar Shivakumar

Documents

World Bank study describing the causes and response of Thailand to the currency, financial, and economic crises


On The Evolution Of Overconfidence And Entrepreneurs, Antonio E. Bernardo, Ivo Welch Jun 2001

On The Evolution Of Overconfidence And Entrepreneurs, Antonio E. Bernardo, Ivo Welch

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper explains why seemingly irrational overconfident behavior can persist. Information aggregation is poor in groups in which most individuals herd. By ignoring the herd, the actions of overconfident individuals (“entrepreneurs”) convey their private information. However, entrepreneurs make mistakes and thus die more frequently. The socially optimal proportion of entrepreneurs trades off the positive information externality against high attrition rates of entrepreneurs, and depends on the size of the group, on the degree of overconfidence, and on the accuracy of individuals’ private information. The stationary distribution trades off the fitness of the group against the fitness of overconfident individuals.


An Economic Approach To The Psychology Of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, And Impulsiveness, David Hirshleifer, Ivo Welch Jun 2001

An Economic Approach To The Psychology Of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, And Impulsiveness, David Hirshleifer, Ivo Welch

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper models how imperfect memory affects the optimal continuity of policies. We examine the choices of a player (individual or firm) who observes previous actions but cannot remember the rationale for these actions. In a stable environment, the player optimally responds to memory loss with excess inertia, defined as a higher probability of following old policies than would occur under full recall. In a volatile environment, the player can exhibit excess impulsiveness (i.e., be more prone to follow new information signals). The model provides a memory-loss explanation for some documented psychological biases, implies that inertia and organizational routines should …


Implementation Completion Report, World Bank/World Bank Group May 2001

Implementation Completion Report, World Bank/World Bank Group

Documents

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/958181468311403765/pdf/multi0page.pdf


Decentralization In Argentina, Nadir Habibi, Cindy Huang, Diego Miranda, Victoria Murillo May 2001

Decentralization In Argentina, Nadir Habibi, Cindy Huang, Diego Miranda, Victoria Murillo

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Consumption Growth In A Booming Economy: Taiwan 1976-96, David J. Mckenzie May 2001

Consumption Growth In A Booming Economy: Taiwan 1976-96, David J. Mckenzie

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Growth And Human Development: Comparative Latin American Experience, Gustav Ranis, Frances Stewart May 2001

Growth And Human Development: Comparative Latin American Experience, Gustav Ranis, Frances Stewart

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


The Effects Of Class Size On The Long Run Growth In Reading Abilities And Early Adult Outcomes In The Christchurch Health And Development Study, Michael A. Boozer, Tim Maloney May 2001

The Effects Of Class Size On The Long Run Growth In Reading Abilities And Early Adult Outcomes In The Christchurch Health And Development Study, Michael A. Boozer, Tim Maloney

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Mortality In The North Dublin Union During The Great Famine, Timothy W. Guinnane, Cormac Ó Gráda May 2001

Mortality In The North Dublin Union During The Great Famine, Timothy W. Guinnane, Cormac Ó Gráda

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


A ‘Friend And Advisor’: Management, Auditors, And Confidence In Germany’S Credit Cooperatives, 1889-1914, Timothy W. Guinnane May 2001

A ‘Friend And Advisor’: Management, Auditors, And Confidence In Germany’S Credit Cooperatives, 1889-1914, Timothy W. Guinnane

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.


Default And Punishment In General Equilibrium, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik May 2001

Default And Punishment In General Equilibrium, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We extend the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets to allow for default and punishment. The equilibrating variables include expected delivery rates, along with the usual prices of assets and commodities. By reinterpreting the variables, our model encompasses a broad range of adverse selection, and signalling phenomena (including the Akerlof lemons model and Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance model) and some moral hazard problems in a general equilibrium framework. Despite earlier claims about the nonexistence of equilibrium with adverse selection, we show that equilibrium always exists. We show that more lenient punishment which encourages default may be Pareto improving because it …


Bubbles, Human Judgment, And Expert Opinion, Robert J. Shiller May 2001

Bubbles, Human Judgment, And Expert Opinion, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Research in psychology and behavioral finance is surveyed for evidence to what extent experts such as professional investment managers or endowment trustees may behave in such a way as to help perpetuate speculative bubbles in financial markets. This paper discusses scholarly psychological literature on the representativeness heuristic, overconfidence, attentional anomalies, self-esteem, conformity pressures, salience and justification for insights into weaknesses in expert opinion. The role of the prudent person standard and the news media in influencing experts is considered. The relevance of the literature on testing of the efficient markets theory is discussed.


Default And Punishment In General Equilibrium, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik May 2001

Default And Punishment In General Equilibrium, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We extend the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets to allow for default and punishment. The equilibrating variables include expected delivery rates, along with the usual prices of assets and commodities. By reinterpreting the variables, our model encompasses a broad range of adverse selection and signalling phenomena (including the Akerlof lemons model and the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance model) in a general equilibrium framework. Despite earlier claims about the nonexistence of equilibrium with adverse selection, we show that equilibrium always exists. We show that more lenient punishment which encourages default may be Pareto improving because it increases the dimension of …


Public Audit Act, New Zealand Parliament Apr 2001

Public Audit Act, New Zealand Parliament

Documents

No abstract provided.


New Century 2000 10-K, New Century Financial Corporation Apr 2001

New Century 2000 10-K, New Century Financial Corporation

Documents

No abstract provided.


The Fertility Transition In Bavaria, John C. Brown, Timothy W. Guinnane Apr 2001

The Fertility Transition In Bavaria, John C. Brown, Timothy W. Guinnane

Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.