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On Modeling The Effects Of Inflation Shocks, Ray C. Fair Apr 2001

On Modeling The Effects Of Inflation Shocks, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A popular model in the literature postulates an interest rate rule, a NAIRU price equation, and an aggregate demand equation in which aggregate demand depends on the real interest rate. In this model a positive inflation shock with the nominal interest rate held constant is explosive because it increases aggregate demand (because the real interest rate is lower), which increases inflation through the price equation, which further increases aggregate demand, and so on. In order for the model to be stable, the nominal interest rate must rise more than inflation, which means that the coefficient on inflation in the interest …


The Indonesian Financial Crisis: From Banking Crisis To Financial Sector Reforms, 1997-2000, Shalendra D. Sharma Apr 2001

The Indonesian Financial Crisis: From Banking Crisis To Financial Sector Reforms, 1997-2000, Shalendra D. Sharma

Documents

No abstract provided.


Valuation Ratios And The Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller Mar 2001

Valuation Ratios And The Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The use of price–earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that these ratios should be useful in forecasting future dividend growth, future earnings growth, or future productivity growth. We conclude that, overall, the ratios do poorly in forecasting any of these. Rather, the ratios appear to be useful primarily in forecasting future stock price changes, contrary to the simple efficient-markets models. This paper is an update of our …


Board Of Directors Report To The Congress Of Colombia, Colombia: Banco De La República Mar 2001

Board Of Directors Report To The Congress Of Colombia, Colombia: Banco De La República

Documents

No abstract provided.


Recapitalizing Banking Systems: Implications For Incentives And Fiscal And Monetary Policy, Patrick Honohan Feb 2001

Recapitalizing Banking Systems: Implications For Incentives And Fiscal And Monetary Policy, Patrick Honohan

Documents

No abstract provided.


Republic Of Kazakhstan Country Assistance Evaluation, Operations Evaluation Department Feb 2001

Republic Of Kazakhstan Country Assistance Evaluation, Operations Evaluation Department

Documents

http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/sites/default/files/Data/reports/kazak_cae.pdf


Did The Malaysian Capital Controls Work?, Ethan Kaplan, Dani Rodrik Feb 2001

Did The Malaysian Capital Controls Work?, Ethan Kaplan, Dani Rodrik

Documents

No abstract provided.


Minutes Of The Federal Open Market Committee, January 30-31, 2001, Federal Reserve System: Board Of Governors: Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc) Jan 2001

Minutes Of The Federal Open Market Committee, January 30-31, 2001, Federal Reserve System: Board Of Governors: Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc)

Documents

No abstract provided.


Stock Market Responses To Bank Restructuring Policies During The East Asian Crisis, Daniela Kingebiel, Randy Kroszner, Luc Laeven, Pieter Van Oijen Jan 2001

Stock Market Responses To Bank Restructuring Policies During The East Asian Crisis, Daniela Kingebiel, Randy Kroszner, Luc Laeven, Pieter Van Oijen

Documents

No abstract provided.


Letter From Golding To Seiler, Regarding Freddie Mac's Comments On Ofheo Systemic Risk Report, Edward L. Golding Jan 2001

Letter From Golding To Seiler, Regarding Freddie Mac's Comments On Ofheo Systemic Risk Report, Edward L. Golding

Documents

No abstract provided.


A Revision Of Parhyalella Kunkel (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Gammaridea), Eric A. Lazo-Wasem, Michael F. Gable Jan 2001

A Revision Of Parhyalella Kunkel (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Gammaridea), Eric A. Lazo-Wasem, Michael F. Gable

Bulletin of the Peabody Museum of Natural History

The genus Parhyalella Kunkel, sensu lato, is revised, based on a review of type material for all previously described species, and on new material….


On The Insensitivity Of The Wind-Driven Circulation To Bottom Topography, David P. Marshall, James C. Stephens Jan 2001

On The Insensitivity Of The Wind-Driven Circulation To Bottom Topography, David P. Marshall, James C. Stephens

Journal of Marine Research

An analytical model is developed for the wind-driven circulation in a continuously stratified ocean overlying variable bottom topography. In the ocean interior we adopt a linear relation between potential vorticity, density and Montgomery potential, resulting in Welander's solution for an adiabatic internal thermocline. The horizontal structure of the circulation is described by a characteristic equation, obtained by imposing a boundary condition of no-normal flow at the sea floor and a prescribed vertical velocity through the base of the surface Ekman layer. The characteristics, which determine the extent to which bottom topography "steers" the circulation within the upper ocean, are dominated …


Absorbed Mn2+ And Mn Redox Cycling In Iberian Continental Margin Sediments (Northeast Atlantic Ocean), Claar Van Der Zee, Wim Van Raaphorst, Eric Epping Jan 2001

Absorbed Mn2+ And Mn Redox Cycling In Iberian Continental Margin Sediments (Northeast Atlantic Ocean), Claar Van Der Zee, Wim Van Raaphorst, Eric Epping

Journal of Marine Research

Although Mn2+ sorption has been investigated extensively in the laboratory, the role of Mn2+ sorption in natural marine sediments remains speculative. Our objectives were to study (1) the role of Mn2+ sorption in the redox cycling of Mn, (2) to quantify Mn cycling and (3) to identify its rate-determining factors at the Iberian margin. Profiles of pore water Mn2+, adsorbed Mn2+ and solid phase Mn were measured together with benthic oxygen fluxes along three transects across the margin from the shelf to the deep sea as well as in the Nazeré Canyon. In the …


Annual To Interannual Variations Of Ƒco2 In The Northwestern Mediterranean Sea: Results From Hourly Measurements Made By Carioca Buoys, 1995–1997, E. M. Hood, L. Merlivat Jan 2001

Annual To Interannual Variations Of Ƒco2 In The Northwestern Mediterranean Sea: Results From Hourly Measurements Made By Carioca Buoys, 1995–1997, E. M. Hood, L. Merlivat

Journal of Marine Research

A time series of fCO2, SST, and fluorescence data was collected between 1995 and 1997 by a CARIOCA buoy moored at the DyFAMed station (Dynamique des Flux Atmospheriques en Mediterranée) located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. On seasonal timescales, the spring phytoplankton bloom decreases the surface water fCO2 to approximately 290 µatm, followed by summer heating and a strong increase in fCO2 to a maximum of approximately 510 µatm. While the ΔfCO2 shows strong variations on seasonal timescales, the annual average air-sea disequilibrium is only 2 µatm. Temperature-normalized fCO …


Internal And Interfacial Tides: Beam Scattering And Local Generation Of Solitary Waves, Theo Gerkema Jan 2001

Internal And Interfacial Tides: Beam Scattering And Local Generation Of Solitary Waves, Theo Gerkema

Journal of Marine Research

Analytical solutions of a linear internal-tide generation problem are presented for a stratification that involves both an interface (thermocline) and a lower layer of constant stratification. It is shown that an internal tidal beam scatters strongly at a moderately developed thermocline but much less at a thermocline that is either very weak or very strong. This scattering goes along with a local wave activity at the thermocline as well as with a downward leaking from the thermocline. It is argued that these processes offer a clue to explaining observations in the Bay of Biscay of 'local generation' of internal soliton …


The Evolution And Energetics Of Large Amplitude Nonlinear Internal Waves On The Portuguese Shelf, D. R. G. Jeans, T. J. Sherwin Jan 2001

The Evolution And Energetics Of Large Amplitude Nonlinear Internal Waves On The Portuguese Shelf, D. R. G. Jeans, T. J. Sherwin

Journal of Marine Research

Intensive in-situ observations of nonlinear internal waves on the Portuguese shelf were made in August 1994, including measurements of the same wavepacket at three locations as it propagated on-shelf. The waves were characterized by sudden isotherm depressions of up to 45 m lasting 10-35 minutes, accompanied by current surges of up to 0.45 m s-1 and shears of up to 0.7 m s-1 over 60 m. The waves propagated away from the shelf break with an estimated phase speed of 0.57 m s-1. The amplitude of the waves was comparable to the theoretical maximum. The kinetic …


On The Summer Mesoscale Variability Of The Black Sea, Şükrü T. Beşiktepe, Carlos J. Lozano, Allan R. Robinson Jan 2001

On The Summer Mesoscale Variability Of The Black Sea, Şükrü T. Beşiktepe, Carlos J. Lozano, Allan R. Robinson

Journal of Marine Research

The evolution of the Black Sea temperature, salinity and circulation, from large scale to mesoscale, is studied using a data-driven primitive equation simulation. The data are drawn from (i) a basin-wide hydrographic survey, CoMSBlack'92, obtained in the Summer of 1992; (ii) wind stress derived from wind analyses of the Sevastopol MSIA/URHI Office; (iii) climatological heat fluxes; and (iv) climatological river outflows. The primitive equation model is from the Harvard Ocean Prediction System. The simulation is used to examine the evolution of the circulation at mesoscale resolution, its dominant variabilities and dependencies in the summer period. The large-scale upper layer circulation …


Impact Of Sub-Mesoscale Physics On Production And Subduction Of Phytoplankton In An Oligotrophic Regime, Marina Lévy, Patrice Klein, Anne-Marie Treguier Jan 2001

Impact Of Sub-Mesoscale Physics On Production And Subduction Of Phytoplankton In An Oligotrophic Regime, Marina Lévy, Patrice Klein, Anne-Marie Treguier

Journal of Marine Research

Using a protocol of numerical experiments where horizontal resolution is progressively increased, we show that small-scale (or sub-mesoscale) physics has a strong impact on both mesoscale physics and phytoplankton production/subduction. Mesoscale and sub-mesoscale physics result from the nonlinear equilibration of an unstable baroclinic jet. The biogeochemical context is oligotrophy. The explicitly resolved sub-mesoscales, at least smaller than one fifth of the internal Rossby radius of deformation, reinforce the mesoscale eddy field and contribute to double the primary production and phytoplankton subduction budgets. This enhancement is due to the reinforced mesoscale physics and is also achieved by the small-scale frontal dynamics. …


Particle Flux In The Rainbow Hydrothermal Vent Field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge): Dynamics, Mineral And Biological Composition, Alexis Khripounoff, Annick Vangriesheim, Philippe Crassous, Michel Segonzac, Ana Colaço, Daniel Desbruyères, Roxane Barthelemey Jan 2001

Particle Flux In The Rainbow Hydrothermal Vent Field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge): Dynamics, Mineral And Biological Composition, Alexis Khripounoff, Annick Vangriesheim, Philippe Crassous, Michel Segonzac, Ana Colaço, Daniel Desbruyères, Roxane Barthelemey

Journal of Marine Research

In order to provide information about the export and the distribution of hydrothermal particulate material to the surrounding deep ocean, four moorings were deployed in the vicinity of the hydrothermal Rainbow vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 36°14′N, 2250 m depth). The first mooring was a sediment trap with a current meter deployed at 2 m from a chimney of the Rainbow vent field and 1.5 m above the bottom (a.b.) for 16 days. It represented the reference for the initial composition of particles produced by the vent. The total mean mass particle flux (6.9 g m-2 d-1) was …


Central Equatorial Pacific Zonal Currents. I: The Sverdrup Balance, Nonlinearity And Tropical Instability Waves. Annual Mean Dynamics, D. E. Harrison, R. D. Romea, S. H. Hankin Jan 2001

Central Equatorial Pacific Zonal Currents. I: The Sverdrup Balance, Nonlinearity And Tropical Instability Waves. Annual Mean Dynamics, D. E. Harrison, R. D. Romea, S. H. Hankin

Journal of Marine Research

Several recent observational studies of central Pacific equatorial current dynamics have suggested that, in the vertical integral between the surface and the thermocline, the linear equatorial Sverdrup balance holds. However, in a high vertical resolution ocean general circulation model, we find that nonlinearity is an order (1) element of the local and the vertically integrated balances on and near the equator at 140W. Although this OGCM has been used in many studies of the tropical Pacific, its equatorial zonal momentum equation balances have never been described in detail and compared with observations. We describe the annual mean balances here, identify …


The Impact Of Model-Error Correlation On Regional Data Assimilative Models And Their Observational Arrays, Philip S. Bogden Jan 2001

The Impact Of Model-Error Correlation On Regional Data Assimilative Models And Their Observational Arrays, Philip S. Bogden

Journal of Marine Research

Data assimilative models often minimize a penalty functional that measures model adjustment and model-data misfit. The penalty functional builds assumptions about model error into the analysis. Usually, errors from different parts of the model (e.g., dynamics and boundary conditions) are presumed to be uncorrelated. This is clearly not a valid assumption in regional models where uncertain large-scale forcing affects open-ocean boundary conditions. In this study, calculations with a regional wind-driven inverse model provide a specific example where model error from uncertain wind stress is correlated with model error from uncertain open boundary conditions. This physically realistic scenario motivates development of …


The Near-Surface Velocity And Potential Vorticity Structure Of The Gulf Stream, T. Rossby, H. M. Zhang Jan 2001

The Near-Surface Velocity And Potential Vorticity Structure Of The Gulf Stream, T. Rossby, H. M. Zhang

Journal of Marine Research

Using Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler and XBT data between 1992 and 1999 from a container vessel that crosses the Gulf Stream twice weekly near 70W, we examine the near-surface velocity, thermal and vorticity structure of the current. These data come from an ongoing sampling program that has as its overall objective to measure the currents between New York and Bermuda to provide a high-quality database for studies of variability and long-term trends in the region. These Gulf Stream sections, when averaged in natural or stream coordinates, exhibit a remarkable double-exponential structure. The scale-widths of the lateral shear north and south …


Modeling Water Column Structure And Suspended Particulate Matter On The Middle Atlantic Continental Shelf During The Passages Of Hurricanes Edouard And Hortense, Alejandro J. Souza, Tommy D. Dickey, Grace C. Chang Jan 2001

Modeling Water Column Structure And Suspended Particulate Matter On The Middle Atlantic Continental Shelf During The Passages Of Hurricanes Edouard And Hortense, Alejandro J. Souza, Tommy D. Dickey, Grace C. Chang

Journal of Marine Research

The present contribution is motivated by the desire to elucidate the processes that contributed to the evolution of observed thermal structure and resuspension of particulate matter during and after the passages of two hurricanes, Edouard and Hortense, within a two-week period in late-summer 1996. A unique set of high temporal frequency measurements of the vertical structures of physical and optical properties was obtained at a mooring site near the Middle Atlantic Bight continental shelf-break (70 m water depth). These data provided insight and initial conditions for the physical model used for this study. The model accounted for wind and bottom …


Malaysia: From Crisis To Recovery, Olin Liu, Kanitta Meesook, Il Houng Lee, Yougesh Khatri, Natalia Tamirisa, Mark H. Krysl, Michael Moore Jan 2001

Malaysia: From Crisis To Recovery, Olin Liu, Kanitta Meesook, Il Houng Lee, Yougesh Khatri, Natalia Tamirisa, Mark H. Krysl, Michael Moore

Documents

No abstract provided.


Performance Of Cages As Large Animal-Exclusion Devices In The Deep Sea, James E. Eckman, David Thistle, William C. Burnett, Gordon L. J. Paterson, Charles Y. Robertson, P. John D. Lambshead Jan 2001

Performance Of Cages As Large Animal-Exclusion Devices In The Deep Sea, James E. Eckman, David Thistle, William C. Burnett, Gordon L. J. Paterson, Charles Y. Robertson, P. John D. Lambshead

Journal of Marine Research

Sedimentary, deep-sea communities include megafaunal animals (e.g., sea cucumbers, brittle stars, crabs) and demersal fishes, collectively termed the large, motile epifauna (LME). Individuals of the LME are common, and their biomass approximates that of the macrofauna. Based on analogies with shallow-water animals, they are likely to be sources of mortality for the infauna and to create spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the community. Given present theories of deep-sea community organization, such effects could be important. Unfortunately, this hypothesis has not been tested because of the difficulty of conducting experiments in the deep sea and because tools for manipulating the LME …


Assessing The Dispersal And Exchange Of Brachyuran Larvae Between Regions Of San Diego Bay, California And Nearshore Coastal Habitats Using Elemental Fingerprinting, Claudio Dibacco, D. Bart Chadwick Jan 2001

Assessing The Dispersal And Exchange Of Brachyuran Larvae Between Regions Of San Diego Bay, California And Nearshore Coastal Habitats Using Elemental Fingerprinting, Claudio Dibacco, D. Bart Chadwick

Journal of Marine Research

Marine benthic invertebrate populations found in estuarine or coastal habitats often exchange larvae. However, the dynamics of larval exchange are poorly understood because of difficulties in (1) making synoptic assessments of horizontal and vertical larval distribution patterns over large areas for extended periods of time and (2) determining the origins of field-sampled larvae. This study examines how temporal changes in the vertical and horizontal distribution of crab larvae (i.e., Pachygrapsus crassipes and Lophopanopeus spp.) affect larval transport. Larval concentration and water velocity data were collected concurrently and were used to estimate larval exchange between regions of San Diego Bay (SDB) …


A Particle Introduction Experiment In Santa Catalina Basin Sediments: Testing The Age-Dependent Mixing Hypothesis, William L. Fornes, David J. Demaster, Craig R. Smith Jan 2001

A Particle Introduction Experiment In Santa Catalina Basin Sediments: Testing The Age-Dependent Mixing Hypothesis, William L. Fornes, David J. Demaster, Craig R. Smith

Journal of Marine Research

The occurrence of "age-dependent mixing," a process by which recently deposited, food-rich particles undergo more intense bioturbation than older, food-poor particles, could dramatically alter patterns of organic-matter diagenesis in deep-sea sediments. To explicitly test for age-dependent mixing, an in-situ particle introduction experiment was conducted on the bathyal Santa Catalina Basin floor. Mixtures of radioisotope-tagged particles representing a food quality gradient were dispersed in small amounts on the seafloor and sampled over periods of 0 to 594 days. Introduced particle types were all similar in size and included fresh diatoms ("young" particles), surface sediments ("intermediate-age" particles), and particles from 30-cm deep …


Central Equatorial Pacific Zonal Currents. Ii: The Seasonal Cycle And The Boreal Spring Surface Eastward Surge, D. E. Harrison, R. D. Romea, G. A. Vecchi Jan 2001

Central Equatorial Pacific Zonal Currents. Ii: The Seasonal Cycle And The Boreal Spring Surface Eastward Surge, D. E. Harrison, R. D. Romea, G. A. Vecchi

Journal of Marine Research

The seasonally averaged zonal momentum equation tendencies at 140W are studied in a high-resolution primitive equation ocean general circulation model simulation of the tropical Pacific. The model experiment, forced by climatological monthly average wind-stress, reproduces well the observed boreal springtime eastward surge of the normally westward surface flow, as well as many features of the acceleration and deceleration between the surface and 200 m between January and October. We present each of the zonal momentum equation tendency terms for the depth range 0-160 m, but our discussion focuses on the behavior of the boreal springtime near-surface flow, perhaps the most …


Effects Of Macrofauna On Acoustic Backscatter From The Seabed: Field Manipulations In West Sound, Orcas Island, Washington, U.S.A., Robert F. L. Self, Patrick A'Hearn, Peter A. Jumars, Darrell R. Jackson, Michael D. Richardson, Kevin B. Briggs Jan 2001

Effects Of Macrofauna On Acoustic Backscatter From The Seabed: Field Manipulations In West Sound, Orcas Island, Washington, U.S.A., Robert F. L. Self, Patrick A'Hearn, Peter A. Jumars, Darrell R. Jackson, Michael D. Richardson, Kevin B. Briggs

Journal of Marine Research

Previous observations with a bottom-mounted, radially scanning sonar (BAMS) at 40 kHz suggested that macrofaunal activities influence low-angle, acoustic backscatter from seafloor sediments. In order to test that possibility experimentally, we measured and modeled time series of backscatter strength at both 40 and 300 kHz prior to manipulation and then introduced several macrofaunal species at known abundances to randomly selected locations within the ensonified area. We worked in West Sound, Orcas Island, Washington, at a water depth of 20.4 m and for the more frequently recorded 40-kHz series extracted effects by the time-series method known as "intervention analysis," wherein the …


Enhancing Medical Observational Skills Through Fine Art : A Randomized Controlled Study, Jacqueline Dolev Jan 2001

Enhancing Medical Observational Skills Through Fine Art : A Randomized Controlled Study, Jacqueline Dolev

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

No abstract provided.