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Collision Avoidance: U.S.-Russian Bilateral Relations And Former Soviet States, Eugene B. Rumer

Strategic Forums

This Strategic Forum policy brief analyzes the growing risk of tension between the United States and Russia as expanding U.S. political and military engagement in former Soviet states intersects with Moscow’s renewed determination to consolidate influence over its “near abroad.” After September 11, U.S. security involvement in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia intensified in support of counterterrorism objectives and the sovereignty of newly independent states. Simultaneously, a broad Russian political consensus has emerged favoring an exclusive sphere of influence along its periphery and resisting long-term U.S. and NATO presence. These converging trajectories place U.S. and Russian policies on …

Transforming For Stabilization And Reconstruction Operations, Hans Binnendijk, Stuart E. Johnson

Books

Through superiority, recent military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq were exceptionally quick and successful in defeating the enemy. However, the Armed Forces were not adequately prepared to respond to lawlessness, destruction of civilian infrastructure, and attacks on coalition forces from unconventional insurgents. It is imperative to transform how the U.S. military prepares for and executes stabilization and reconstruction (S&R) operations. It is necessary for S&R to be planned before the conflict and executed promptly following the conflict as part of the transformation.

This book examines the various elements of the stabilization and reconstruction capabilities needed by the U.S. military. It …

Securing Afghanistan: Entering A Make-Or-Break Phase?, Robert B. Oakley, T.X. Hammes

Strategic Forums

This paper assesses Afghanistan’s security and political trajectory in early 2004, arguing that the country had entered a decisive “make-or-break” phase in post-Taliban stabilization. The authors analyze the persistence of warlordism, Pashtun resentment, Taliban-led insurgency, narcotics trafficking, and cross-border dynamics involving Pakistan, Iran, India, and Central Asia. They examine the evolving coalition response, including the expansion of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Operation Enduring Freedom’s shift toward population-centered counterinsurgency, development of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and police forces, Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) initiatives, and the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) model. The brief argues that sustained U.S. leadership, …

Partnership For Peace: Charting A Course For A New Era, Jeffrey Simon

Strategic Forums

This Strategic Forum brief examines the future of NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PFP) following Alliance enlargement and shifting post-9/11 security priorities. With many former partners joining NATO, the program faces questions about its continued relevance. The brief argues that PFP remains essential for promoting defense reform, democratic civil-military relations, interoperability, and regional security cooperation among remaining partner states. It recommends restructuring the program to address distinct regional needs, strengthening subregional initiatives, enhancing counterterrorism cooperation, and improving resource allocation. A revitalized Partnership for Peace, better integrated with NATO’s strategic objectives, would support stability in Europe’s periphery and reinforce long-term Euro-Atlantic security.

Dual-Track Transformation For Nato, Hans Binnendijk, Richard L. Kugler

Defense Horizons

Recent strains between the United States and some European allies have raised concerns that NATO is becoming irrelevant or even headed toward extinction. A breakup of NATO would severely damage the United States and Europe as well as prospects for global peace. As an urgent priority, NATO must restore its unity and strengthen its capacity for common action in the Greater Middle East. But how can this goal be achieved in today’s climate?

The solution is for NATO to pursue a new dual-track strategy of military and political transformation that could be launched at the Istanbul Summit next spring. The …

Technology, Transformation, And New Operational Concepts, Elihu Zimet, Robert E. Armstrong, Donald C. Daniel, Joseph N. Mait

Defense Horizons

Throughout history, technology has been central to warfare, often giving qualitative advantages to numerically inferior forces. Typically, the rate of technology development has been relatively slow and the introduction of new weapons systems even slower, which has allowed evolutionary development of operational concepts. Today’s accelerated pace of technology development no longer allows sequential development of operational concepts. In addition, the current global political environment has placed demands upon the military that range from engaging in major regional conflicts to stabilization, reconstruction and peacekeeping, all creating a continuous need for flexible, adaptive systems and new concepts of operation.

The first purpose …

Nato Decisionmaking: Au Revoir To The Consensus Rule?, Leo G. Michel

Strategic Forums

This Strategic Forum paper examines growing debates within NATO over the viability of the Alliance’s long-standing consensus rule for decisionmaking, particularly in light of enlargement and disagreements surrounding the Iraq War. The author analyzes how the consensus principle has shaped NATO’s political cohesion, operational planning, and crisis response, drawing on case studies including Kosovo, post–September 11 actions, and the February 2003 dispute over defensive planning for Turkey. While acknowledging frustrations with consensus procedures, the paper argues that the rule reflects NATO’s character as an alliance of sovereign states and remains central to its legitimacy and cohesion. It evaluates potential reforms—such …

Joint Force Quarterly 34 (3rd Quarter, July 2003), National Defense University Press

Joint Force Quarterly ARCHIVES

No abstract provided.

Transforming Nato Command And Control For Future Missions, Charles L. Barry

Defense Horizons

No military function is more critical to operational success than effective command and control (C2). There also is no more daunting military function to get right when it comes to the employment of complex multinational formations in the fast-paced arena of crisis response. Since the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—unique as an alliance with a permanent standing C2 structure—has ventured into a broader spectrum of missions and across a wider geographical area of operations, posing far greater C2 challenges than the single mission, fixed-territory defense of the past. Threats to NATO interests have increased, demanding military structures …

The Air Force: Science, Technology, And Transformation, Donald C. Daniel

Defense Horizons

A unique connectivity exists in the Air Force between science, technology, and transformation. From the defining moment of powered flight in 1903 to the creation of the Air Force as a separate service in 1947 to the present, these three elements have been continuously linked and undoubtedly will remain so.

This paper provides a brief historical perspective of the ties between science, technology, and transformation in the earliest days of the Air Force; gives an overview of current Air Force science and technology; offers a look at five future transformational capabilities—unmanned combat aerial vehicles, small munitions, directed energy weapons, microsatellites, …

Toward A National Biodefense Strategy: Challenges And Opportunities, Center For Counterproliferation Research

Books and Book Chapters

The United States is re-learning an important lesson in the first decade of the 21st century: adversaries may attack the United States, its interests, or those of friends and allies with biological weapons (BW). The last century witnessed the purported use of glanders by the Germans in World War I and the use of dysentery, plague, and typhus by the Japanese in World War II. But biological weapons were not constrained to wartime settings in the last century. The Rajneeshees, a religious cult in Oregon, employed salmonella to advance their own political agenda. States such as Iraq and the former …

Nato Defense Science And Technology, Donald C. Daniel, Leigh C. Caraher

Defense Horizons

The accord establishing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 provided the framework for the greatest international mechanism ever in defense science and technology. From its earliest days, NATO involvement in science and technology has sought to build cooperation and promote security and stability. Today, the central element of the NATO defense science and technology program is the Research and Technology Organization (RTO), which provides the best basis for collaboration among the most technologically advanced countries in the world. Through this body, alliance nations plan and execute activities that cover the full spectrum of technologies vital to current and …

Flashman’S Revenge: Central Asia After September 11, Eugene B. Rumer

Strategic Forums

This paper examines the shifting strategic landscape of Central Asia in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and assesses how the United States’ emergence as the preeminent power affects regional politics, security dynamics, and relationships among key Central Asian states. It explores how historical legacies, geopolitical competition, and evolving U.S. policy priorities — particularly those related to counterterrorism and regional access — influence the balance of power in the five Central Asian republics. Drawing on historical context and policy analysis, the author analyzes whether the geopolitical influence of external actors, regional security cooperation, and domestic political considerations …

Dissuasion As A Strategic Concept, Richard L. Kugler

Strategic Forums

Dissuasion as a Strategic Concept examines how U.S. defense and foreign policy can go beyond traditional deterrence to prevent adversaries from choosing conflict or escalation in the first place. The paper defines dissuasion as the strategic practice of discouraging adversaries from contemplating harmful behavior by shaping their expectations and perceived costs of action. The author explores how dissuasion complements deterrence and assurance strategies, particularly in complex regional contexts such as the Korean Peninsula, where multiple actors’ perceptions and incentives interact. Drawing on historical cases and theory, the paper offers insights into designing policies that reduce the likelihood of miscalculation and …

Joint Force Quarterly 31 (3rd Quarter, September 2002), National Defense University Press

Joint Force Quarterly ARCHIVES

No abstract provided.

Transforming America’S Military, Hans Binnendijk

Books

Transforming America’s Military, edited by Hans Binnendijk. This book explores the issues that face the U.S. military in a time of transformation: new missions, new technologies, efforts by each of the Services, on the part of our allies, as well as the challenges we face after September 11.

Military transformation requires developing new technologies, operational concepts, and organizational structures to conduct war in dramatically new ways. The United States is undertaking such a transformation to tackle its 21st century missions. A properly transformed military can develop significant advantages over a potential enemy. But the process also introduces risks that, …

Joint Force Quarterly 30 (2nd Quarter, May 2002), National Defense University Press

Joint Force Quarterly ARCHIVES

No abstract provided.

U.S.-Russian Relations: Toward A New Strategic Framework, Eugene B. Rumer, Richard D. Sokolsky

Strategic Forums

This Strategic Forum paper analyzes the evolving security relationship between the United States and the Russian Federation and proposes a strategic framework for managing bilateral challenges in the post–Cold War era. The authors review historical drivers of U.S.–Russian interaction, including arms control regimes, regional security crises, and shifts in great power postures. The analysis identifies structural impediments to cooperation and areas of persistent strategic friction, such as nuclear competition, NATO expansion, and crisis instability. The paper argues for a renewed strategic framework that balances deterrence with dialogue, strengthens risk reduction mechanisms, and incorporates broader geopolitical realities. It concludes with policy …

Homeland Security: The New Role For Defense, Steven J. Tomisek

Strategic Forums

Before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, U.S. defense forces were principally oriented toward deterrence, overseas stability operations, and traditional warfighting missions, and homeland defense was largely the responsibility of civilian law enforcement agencies. The shock of 9/11 and the emergence of transnational terrorist and bioterror threats prompted a strategic reassessment of the Department of Defense’s role in securing the American homeland. This paper examines how the Department of Defense has adapted to this changing security environment by reaffirming its constitutional role in protecting the United States against foreign aggression, expanding its mission set to include homeland defense, and …

U.S.-Iran Relations: Normalization In The Future?, Judith S. Yaphe

Strategic Forums

This Strategic Forum paper examines the prospects for normalization in U.S.–Iran relations, analyzing the historical evolution of bilateral tensions since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the strategic barriers to sustained diplomatic engagement. The author evaluates the political, ideological, and security factors that have shaped U.S. policy toward Iran, including regional instability, nuclear concerns, and competing strategic priorities in the Middle East. The paper assesses whether changing geopolitical conditions or domestic political shifts could create opportunities for rapprochement, while recognizing enduring mistrust and structural obstacles. It concludes by outlining policy considerations for U.S. decisionmakers seeking to balance deterrence, regional security, and …

Joint Force Quarterly 29 (1st Quarter, January 2002), National Defense University Press

Joint Force Quarterly ARCHIVES

No abstract provided.

Adversary Use Of Nbc Weapons: A Neglected Challenge, John F. Reichart

Strategic Forums

Understanding has evolved in the last decade about how an adversary might use nuclear, radiological, biological, or chemical weapons against the United States. Increasingly, America is concluding that potential adversaries view these not as “weapons of last resort” but rather as tactically and strategically useful. The United States can expect their use early in a conflict as well as throughout the extended battlefield, including on U.S. territory itself.

The Counterproliferation Imperative: Meeting Tomorrow's Challenges, Center For Counterproliferation Research

Books and Book Chapters

The proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons poses major strategic and operational challenges to the United States and an important political challenge to the international community. In the hands of hostile states, these weapons threaten stability in key regions, put U.S. forces at risk, and undermine the U.S. ability to project power and to reassure friends and allies. Increasingly, the American homeland is at risk as well. U.S. intelligence officials routinely warn that more than a dozen states are actively pursuing offensive chemical or biological weapons programs. Moreover, the 1998 Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests, as well as …

U.S.-Saudi Relations: Rebuilding The Strategic Consensus, Joseph Mcmillan

Strategic Forums

This Strategic Forum examines the strain in U.S.-Saudi relations and outlines steps to rebuild a shared strategic foundation in the aftermath of shifting regional dynamics and rising tensions. It argues that the partnership, long rooted in mutual security interests, has been weakened by political, military, and societal pressures, including the challenges of sustaining U.S. military presence and differing priorities in the Middle East. The paper emphasizes Saudi Arabia’s critical role in U.S. efforts to address regional instability and counter terrorism, while highlighting the sensitivities surrounding sovereignty and legitimacy within the Kingdom. It proposes rebuilding consensus through clearer strategic alignment, improved …

Adapting Forces To A New Era: Ten Transforming Concepts, Hans Binnendijk, Richard L. Kugler

Defense Horizons

A key Department of Defense goal is to build highly capable forces whose mastery of high-tech warfighting will allow decisive victories against new threats and well-armed opponents in future operations. A set of new operational concepts, many of which have surfaced in the ongoing defense strategy review, may facilitate this goal. They focus on rapid and decisive operations in distant theaters rather than on homeland defense. As generic concepts for future warfighting, they offer valuable insights on combat capabilities that should be acquired. Before these principles can be adopted, they must be scrutinized on their individual merits and integrated to …

Ucavs—Technological, Policy, And Operational Challenges, Charles L. Barry, Elihu Zimet

Defense Horizons

The Bush administration and Congress are in concert on the goal of developing a fleet of unmanned aircraft that can reduce both defense costs and aircrew losses in combat by taking on at least the most dangerous combat missions. Unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) will be neither inexpensive enough to be readily expendable nor—at least in early development—capable of performing every combat mission alongside or in lieu of manned sorties. Yet the tremendous potential of such systems is widely recognized, and allies as well as potential adversaries are moving quickly to mount their own research and development programs. The United …

Joint Force Quarterly 28 (3rd Quarter, September 2001), National Defense University Press

Joint Force Quarterly ARCHIVES

No abstract provided.

China: Making The Case For Realistic Engagement, Michael E. Marti

Strategic Forums

This Strategic Forum examines the role of engagement in U.S. policy toward China and argues for a more realistic approach grounded in China’s long-term strategic objectives. It highlights Beijing’s ambition to emerge as a dominant regional power while avoiding direct confrontation and costly arms races. The paper cautions against assumptions that U.S. engagement alone can significantly reshape China’s political or strategic trajectory. Instead, it advocates a balanced strategy that combines continued engagement with prudent hedging to protect U.S. interests. The analysis emphasizes the need to align expectations with achievable outcomes, recognizing both the opportunities and limits of cooperation. Ultimately, it …

Do European Union Defense Initiatives Threaten Nato?, Kori N. Schake

Strategic Forums

This paper looks at whether European efforts to develop independent defense capabilities undermine or support the transatlantic alliance. EU defense initiatives, particularly the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), do not inherently threaten NATO. Instead, the primary concern lies in Europe’s limited military capabilities and continued reliance on U.S. support. This paper explores how EU-led operations, focused largely on crisis management, differ from NATO’s broader warfighting role. It highlights the importance of coordination, interoperability, and avoiding duplication between the two institutions. Stronger European defense capabilities, if aligned with NATO, can reinforce, rather than weaken, the alliance and contribute to more …

A Military For The 21st Century: Lessons From The Recent Past, Anthony C. Zinni

Strategic Forums

This paper looks at how U.S. military operations have changed since the Cold War and what those experiences suggest for the future. Drawing on recent missions, Zinni shows that the operating environment has become more complex, not less, with forces expected to handle everything from major conflicts to peacekeeping and humanitarian crises. The paper highlights the growing importance of adaptability, joint operations, and readiness across a wide range of scenarios. It also emphasizes the need to better align force structure, training, and strategy with these evolving demands. It argues for a military that is flexible, responsive, and prepared to operate …