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Uncertainty In Quali-Quantitative Response Of A Natural Catchment On A Daily Basis, A. Candela, G. Aronica, G. Viviani Jul 2004

Uncertainty In Quali-Quantitative Response Of A Natural Catchment On A Daily Basis, A. Candela, G. Aronica, G. Viviani

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water quality impacts due to non-point source pollution can be significant particularly in environmentally sensitive areas. They may, however, be difficult to quantify, since the magnitude is heavily influenced by climatic, geomorphologic, lithologic and pedologic characteristics. A conceptual model for continuous daily simulation is proposed to reproduce the quali-quantitative response of a Sicilian catchment. Short-term water quality monitoring is necessary to assess the hydrological response of catchments characterised by hot dry summers and rainfalls with short duration and high intensity. The quantitative sub-model comprises two modules: a non linear loss model, to transform total rainfall in effective rainfall, which involves …


Modeling Flexible Plans For Agricultural Production Management, Roger Martin-Clouaire, Jp Rellier Jul 2004

Modeling Flexible Plans For Agricultural Production Management, Roger Martin-Clouaire, Jp Rellier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Analyzing in what circumstance and why an agricultural production system performs acceptably well or fails requires models of management practices and work processes. A farmer’s management task relies on planned and reactive behaviors that enable him to organize his work in function of known and exploitable regularities, and to adapt it to uncontrollable contingencies as they occur. Consequently, a farm production manager exhibits a decision-making behavior that seems to rely heavily on a kind of flexible plan. This paper aims at presenting a generic model of such plans that are similar to programs. Once represented in this framework a production …


The Role Of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis In A Decision Support System For Rehabilitation Of Contaminated Sites (The Desyre Software), C. Carlon, S. Giove, Paola Agostini, A. Critto, Antonio Marcomini Jul 2004

The Role Of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis In A Decision Support System For Rehabilitation Of Contaminated Sites (The Desyre Software), C. Carlon, S. Giove, Paola Agostini, A. Critto, Antonio Marcomini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The rehabilitation of contaminated sites involves several considerations in terms of environmental, technological and socio-economic aspects. A decision support system becomes therefore necessary in order to manage problem complexity and to define effective rehabilitation interventions. DESYRE (Decision Support sYstem for Rehabilitation of contaminated sites) is a software system which integrates risk assessment with socio-economic analysis and technological assessment in order to provide decision-makers with different remediation scenarios to be evaluated. The structure of the system allows a subsequent analysis, from socioeconomic analysis and site characterization, to risk assessment before and after remediation technologies selection, until the definition of remediation scenarios. …


Knowledge Discovery In Environmental Data Bases Using Gesconda, Karina Gibert, Xavier Flores, Ignasi Rodríguez-Roda, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè Jul 2004

Knowledge Discovery In Environmental Data Bases Using Gesconda, Karina Gibert, Xavier Flores, Ignasi Rodríguez-Roda, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this work, last results of the research project “Development of an Intelligent Data Analysis System for Knowledge Management in Environmental Data Bases (DB)” are presented. The project is focussed on the design and development of a prototype for Knowledge Discovery (KD) and intelligent data analysis, and specially oriented to environmental DB. It is remarkable the high quantity of information and knowledge patterns that are implicit in large DB coming from environmental domains. In this project, several environmental DB such as meteorological phenomena, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), or environmental emergencies were used for testing. KD is a prior and mandatory …


Dawn: A Platform For Evaluating Water-Pricing Policies Using A Software Agent Society, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis, P. Vartalas, P. A. Mitkas Jul 2004

Dawn: A Platform For Evaluating Water-Pricing Policies Using A Software Agent Society, Ioannis N. Athanasiadis, P. Vartalas, P. A. Mitkas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Lately there is a transition in water management: policy makers leave aside traditional methods focused on additional-supply policies and focus on water conservation using demand control methods. Water Agencies use water-pricing policies as an instrument for controlling residential water demand. However, design and evaluation of a water-pricing policy is a complex task, as economic, social and political constraints have to be incorporated. In order to support policy makers in their tasks, we developed DAWN, a software tool for evaluating water-pricing policies, implemented as a multi-agent system. DAWN simulates the residential water demand-supply chain and enables the design, creation, modification and …


Operational And Forecasting Real-Time Air Quality Tool For Industrial Plants, R. San José, J. L. Pérez, R. M. González Jul 2004

Operational And Forecasting Real-Time Air Quality Tool For Industrial Plants, R. San José, J. L. Pérez, R. M. González

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A tool (TEAP) to evaluate in real-time and operational mode the air quality produced by industrial plants (power plants also) has been developed based on the third generation of air quality modelling systems. The system uses the non-hydrostatic mesoscale meteorological model MM5 (PSU/NCAR, USA) and the air quality modelling system (transport and chemistry) CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System) (EPA, USA) by using the so-called ON/OFF scenario which allows the user to have in advance (48 - 72 hours) a detailed information in time and space on what is the relative impact of the industrial emissions in an area …


Continuous Simulation In Material Flow Networks, A. Moeller Jul 2004

Continuous Simulation In Material Flow Networks, A. Moeller

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Software systems supporting industrial ecology, corporate material flow analysis and life cycle assessment, are normally used as environmental accounting systems. Using these software systems it is easy to model material and energy flow networks with hundreds or even thousands of processes. Environmental accounting systems are not only utilised to analyse and control existing material and energy flow systems, they are also applied to assess future scenarios in steady-state models. But these systems do not support dynamic modelling. Even though dynamic behaviour is not the main focus of environmental accounting systems, sometimes simulation models are required to estimate material and energy …


Parameter Estimation Of A Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Model And Application To Mediterranean Catchments, A. Hreiche, C. Bocquillon, W. Najem Jul 2004

Parameter Estimation Of A Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Model And Application To Mediterranean Catchments, A. Hreiche, C. Bocquillon, W. Najem

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Development of methodologies to achieve a priori parameter estimation of hydrological models is fundamental in ungauged basins, to reduce the number of parameters to be calibrated or to obtain parameter values where calibration is not possible. This work shows that conceptual rainfall-runoff models can be applied to ungauged watersheds by developing relationships between model parameters and watershed characteristics. In fact, the calibration of MEDOR, a four parameter daily lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model specific for the Mediterranean catchments, is affected by the equifinality issue. Systematic scanning of the Nash criterion objective function demonstrates that a Production Equifinality Relationship (PER) exists between …


The Evolution Of Economic Structure Under Biotechnological Progress, Haoran Pan Jul 2004

The Evolution Of Economic Structure Under Biotechnological Progress, Haoran Pan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There are obvious gaps between long-term change of economic structure and its principle drivingforce – technological progress. History has shown the influence of technological progress on economy andcurrent insights in technological development can almost foresee the coming technological waves in next 50years, but their possible impacts on economy are not yet assessed. In this paper, we define that RandDinvestment drives the development of biotechnology, capacity building brings new bio-technical processesinto sectoral production, new or old technical processes within a sector exchange their relative positions asphasing in and out, and sectors evolve or transform along time. An exercise on US economy …


Modelling The Dynamics Of Public Attention Towards Environmental Issues, Jens Newig, Julia Hesselmann Jul 2004

Modelling The Dynamics Of Public Attention Towards Environmental Issues, Jens Newig, Julia Hesselmann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Public attention, traced over time, often displays seemingly paradox behaviour: Contrary towhat one might expect, public concern is seldom highest when the environmental conditions are the worst.Rather, concern most often rises when conditions have already become better. Furthermore, public attentiondynamics frequently shows self-reinforcing behaviour resulting in distinct cycles, e.g. due to sometrigger event. In this paper, public attention is viewed as a social macro-level phenomenon that is soughtto be explained by the interaction of a multitude of single actors, namely individual citizens, the press, andpoliticians. First, a causal model based on rational choice theory is constructed in order to elucidate …


An Integrated Modelling Approach To Conduct Multifactorial Analyses On The Impacts Of Climate Change On Whole-Farm Systems., M. Rivington, Gianni Bellocchi, K. B. Matthews, K. Buchan Jul 2004

An Integrated Modelling Approach To Conduct Multifactorial Analyses On The Impacts Of Climate Change On Whole-Farm Systems., M. Rivington, Gianni Bellocchi, K. B. Matthews, K. Buchan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Climate change impact studies on whole-farm systems require a holistic approach due to the complexities of biophysical processes, management and inter-relationships of land use within a single farm. This paper details the process of utilising a multiple-objective, strategic land use planning tool to conduct multi-factorial analyses on the impacts of climate change at the farm scale. Two example sites are given to illustrate the flexibility of the method: an upland mixed sheep and suckler cow farm in Scotland, with cold wet winters and cool moist summers; and a combined cropping and indoor reared beef farm in Italy, with cool moist …


Decision-Support System Workbench For Sustainable Water Management Problems, M. S. Morley, C. K. Makropoulos, Dragan Savic, David Butler Jul 2004

Decision-Support System Workbench For Sustainable Water Management Problems, M. S. Morley, C. K. Makropoulos, Dragan Savic, David Butler

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Decision Support Systems (DSS) comprise a wide-range of computer-enabled applications that are based on some form of analytical model, commonly linked to a database. Coupled with the visualization and spatial analysis facilities provided by a Geographic Information System (GIS), a unifying framework can be developed to promote the uptake of advanced decision support technology across a wide range of stakeholders. This paper describes an architecture for a Decision Support Workbench to facilitate the rapid development of DSS applications. Custom DSS implementations supporting decision-making for a wide range of problems may be generated through an extensible, interactive environment, featuring “drag and …


Volatility In International Tourism Demand For Small Island Tourism Economies, Riaz Shareef, Michael Mcaleer Jul 2004

Volatility In International Tourism Demand For Small Island Tourism Economies, Riaz Shareef, Michael Mcaleer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Volatility in monthly international tourist arrivals is defined as the squared deviation frommean monthly international tourist arrivals. Consequently, volatility is directly related to the standarddeviation, which is a common measure of financial risk. Fluctuating variations, or conditional volatility, ininternational monthly tourist arrivals are typically associated with unanticipated events. There are timevaryingeffects related to SITEs, such as natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime, the threat of terrorism, andbusiness cycles in tourist source countries, among others, which cause variations in monthly internationaltourist arrivals. In this paper, we show how the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(GARCH) model can be used to measure the conditional volatility …


Role Of Politics And Economy In The Worsening Of Water Related Problems In Kerala, India, K. Shadananan Nair Jul 2004

Role Of Politics And Economy In The Worsening Of Water Related Problems In Kerala, India, K. Shadananan Nair

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Globally, water resources are being fast depleted or deteriorated, while the demands are increasingmanifold. Water resources management is becoming a greater challenge in the developing countries withchanging environmental, political, social and economic conditions. Politics and shadow economy are amongmajor hurdles in resource management, making implementation of projects and policy guidelines often a failure.The State of Kerala in India is rich in water resources, but it experiences serious seasonal water shortagesbecause of inefficient water conservation and management practices, an after effect of the slow governmentmachinery and corruption. Delays in project completion lead to substantial increase in costs and many projectsare left …


"Initiates Of Isis Now, Come, Enter Into The Temple!": Masonic And Enlightenment Thought In The Magic Flute, Paul E. Kerry Jul 2004

"Initiates Of Isis Now, Come, Enter Into The Temple!": Masonic And Enlightenment Thought In The Magic Flute, Paul E. Kerry

BYU Studies

Habakkuk exclaimed that in the presence of Lord the "sun and moon stood still in their habitation." The Empryean (Canto XXXII) of Dante's Paradiso concludes with the splendid phrase "l'amor che move il sole e l'altre stelle" (the Love which moves the sun and the other stars). And in 1945 when Harry S Truman realized the weight of the office he would inherit upon the death of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, he declared, "I felt like the moon, the stars, and all the planets had fallen on me." It seems that when prophets, poets, and presidents have the need to …


Teaching The Fall And The Atonement: A Comparative Method, Roger R. Keller Jul 2004

Teaching The Fall And The Atonement: A Comparative Method, Roger R. Keller

Religious Educator: Perspectives on the Restored Gospel

No abstract provided.


Reduction Of Complex Models Using Data-Mining And Nonlinear Projection Techniques, K. Bernhardt, K. W. Wirtz Jul 2004

Reduction Of Complex Models Using Data-Mining And Nonlinear Projection Techniques, K. Bernhardt, K. W. Wirtz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Complex models of environmental systems typically depend on a large amount of uncertain parameters. Therefore, they are often difficult to handle and do not provide an insight into effective modes of the underlying system’s dynamics. Unlike earlier analytical attempts to find more effective model representations, we present a new combination of methods that only relies on data generated by complex, process-based models. These methods are taken from the field of data-mining and enable the recognition of patterns in measured or modelled data by unsupervised learning strategies. As these methods do not directly lead to a better understanding of the systems’ …


Water Quality Modelling In Rivers With Limited Observational Data: River Elbe Case Study, Renata J. Romanowicz, Ulrich Callies, Peter C. Young Jul 2004

Water Quality Modelling In Rivers With Limited Observational Data: River Elbe Case Study, Renata J. Romanowicz, Ulrich Callies, Peter C. Young

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water quality predictions in an ungauged catchment require the development of a model that is able to capture the basic physical features of the process and depends only on variables that are easily available. From this point of view, the model has similar requirements to those used in future climate scenario analysis. The mechanistic water quality model, developed in GKSS, Germany, for the purpose of climate change analysis, uses only climatic variables, such as temperature, radiation and discharge, to predict the time variability of algae concentrations. This paper presents the development of a statistical analogue to this mechanistic model. The …


A Spatial Dss For South Australia's Prawn Fisheries. Using Historic Knowledge Towards Environmental And Economical Sustainability, B. Ostendorf, N. Carrick Jul 2004

A Spatial Dss For South Australia's Prawn Fisheries. Using Historic Knowledge Towards Environmental And Economical Sustainability, B. Ostendorf, N. Carrick

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Spencer Gulf Penaeid prawn fishery is an example of a sustainable fishery due to close collaboration between fishers, research and government. The fishery has undergone substantial increase in fishing efficiency due to improvement in gear, increase in crew skill, effective use of communication networks for monitoring catch, stock assessment, and for rapid response for change in harvest strategies. Spatial decision-making has reduced the fishing effort to around 60 days per year and less than 10% of the area of the Gulf is trawled, with increasing economic gain due to development of real time adaptive harvest strategies undertaken in collaboration …


Artificial Neural Networks Prediction Of Pm10 In The Milan Area, M. Cecchetti, G. Corani, G. Guarisoa Jul 2004

Artificial Neural Networks Prediction Of Pm10 In The Milan Area, M. Cecchetti, G. Corani, G. Guarisoa

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

PM10 constitutes a major concern for Milan air quality. We presents a series of results obtainedapplying different neural networks approaches to the PM10 prediction problem. The 1-day ahead predictionshows a satisfactory level of accuracy, which may be further improved if a proper deseasonalization approach isadopted, thus transferring some a priori knowledge in the data pre-processing step. Then, we tackle the problemof the 2-days ahead prediction; in order to optimize the neural network architecture identification procedure,we try a pruning approach besides the usual trial and error one. Prediction performances are very close betweenthe two models, and denote a significant decrease of …


Simulating Stakeholder Support For River Management, Pieter Valkering, J. Krywkow, Jan Rotmans, A. Van Der Veen Jul 2004

Simulating Stakeholder Support For River Management, Pieter Valkering, J. Krywkow, Jan Rotmans, A. Van Der Veen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

River management is a typical example of a complex problem involving a variety of stakeholder interests and fundamental environmental uncertainties. The Dutch government aims to take the different interests and views explicitly into account by allowing stakeholders to participate in the planning process. The aim of our research is to analyse this participatory process to investigate stakeholder support, their influence on the decision-making process, and the role of norms and co-operation. To this end, we developed an agent based model representing a negotiation among stakeholders. Stakeholder support for a river management strategy is modelled on the basis of the Theory …


Optimal Sampling For Parameters Estimation, Federico Catania, Marco Massabò, R. Minciardi, Ombretta Paladino Jul 2004

Optimal Sampling For Parameters Estimation, Federico Catania, Marco Massabò, R. Minciardi, Ombretta Paladino

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the problems concerning prediction and modeling, parameters estimation constitutes one of the main uncertain items that must be taken into account. The easiest way to minimize this uncertainty is to collect great amounts of data. The aim of this work is to build a decision model able to choose the optimal position of the sample point used for the parameters estimation, minimizing the parameters uncertainty. The decision model is applied to the estimation of the dispersivity coefficients, longitudinal and transversal, from soil column experiment. The classical design of experiments techniques are based on the optimization of the amount of …


Cellular Automata Modelling Of Seagrass In The Orbetello Lagoon, Stefano Marsili-Libelli, E. Giusti Jul 2004

Cellular Automata Modelling Of Seagrass In The Orbetello Lagoon, Stefano Marsili-Libelli, E. Giusti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper describes the evolution in time and space of wigeongrass (Ruppia maritima) meadows in the Orbetello lagoon, in central Italy, where the control of the submerged vegetation, with a critical coexistence between macroalgae and macrophytes, is the key management problem. While macroalgae are liable to cause dystrophic crises, macrophytes oxygenate and stabilise the sediment and thus control the nutrient flux into the water. This model was developed for the Orbetello Lagoon Managerial Office to predict the development of both groups and test the actions to favour macrophytes over macroalgae, in the context of a decision support system. A previous …


Situated Cellular Agents For Crowd Simulation And Visualization, Stefania Bandini, Sara Manzoni, G. Vizzari Jul 2004

Situated Cellular Agents For Crowd Simulation And Visualization, Stefania Bandini, Sara Manzoni, G. Vizzari

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper presents a Multi Agent Systems (MAS) approach to crowd modelling, based on the Situated Cellular Agents (SCA) model. This is a special class of Multilayered Multi Agent Situated System (MMASS), rooted on Cellular Automata, providing an explicit spatial representation and the definition of adjacency geometries. The model also defines a concept of autonomous agent, provided with an internal architecture and individual state and behaviour, capable of different means of space–mediated interaction (synchronous, between adjacent agents, and asynchronous among distant entities). Heterogenous entities may be modelled through the specification of different agent types, defining different behaviours and perceptive capabilities. …


A Spatially-Distributed Conceptual Model For Reactive Transport Of Phosphorus From Diffuse Sources: An Object-Oriented Approach, B. Koo, S. Dunn, R. Ferrier Jul 2004

A Spatially-Distributed Conceptual Model For Reactive Transport Of Phosphorus From Diffuse Sources: An Object-Oriented Approach, B. Koo, S. Dunn, R. Ferrier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents CAMEL, a spatially-distributed conceptual model for simulating reactive transport of phosphorus from diffuse sources at the catchment scale. A catchment is represented in the model using a network of grid cells and each grid cell is comprised of various conceptual storages of water, sediment and phosphorus. To allow for reactive transport processes of phosphorus between grid cells, two cascade routing schemes are used for groundwater and channel water flows, respectively. The model has a modular, object-oriented structure so that it can be easily modified or extended and, furthermore, it can even provide a library of hydrological and …


Diva: An Iterative Method For Building Modular Integrated Models, J. Hinkel Jul 2004

Diva: An Iterative Method For Building Modular Integrated Models, J. Hinkel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledgefrom the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatibleterminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the startof the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient.The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answercan be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisationand integration. Along those lines of thought …


Supporting The Strategic Objectives Of Participative Water Resources Management; An Evaluation Of The Performance Of Four Ict Tools, A. Swinford, Brian Mcintosh, P. Jeffrey Jul 2004

Supporting The Strategic Objectives Of Participative Water Resources Management; An Evaluation Of The Performance Of Four Ict Tools, A. Swinford, Brian Mcintosh, P. Jeffrey

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Article 14 of the Water Framework Directive promotes a social learning model of participative planning and creates a broader stakeholder and public constituency for water management. Such natural resource management processes are key testing grounds for the development of new Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools designed to support wider citizen participation in local and regional governance. Several types of purpose designed ICT tool are available, but there is a distinct lack of empirical research into their design and effectiveness. Strategic objectives performance take the central role in the work reported here. Six strategic objectives of the use of ICT …


Eliciting Sources Of Uncertainty In Ecological Simulation Models, V. Brilhante, J. L. Campos Dos Santos Jul 2004

Eliciting Sources Of Uncertainty In Ecological Simulation Models, V. Brilhante, J. L. Campos Dos Santos

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Uncertainty is an intrinsic feature of complex ecological models. Given that it is not possible to rid the modelsfrom uncertainty, we are left with taking notice of it for consideration in model-based decision making. Traditionalecological modelling methods and tools do not support explicit accounts of model uncertainty. Thiswork gives a contribution towards making known, or bringing to the surface, sources of uncertainty that areembedded in ecological models. The sources of uncertainty are related to the models’ supporting data andequations. A metadata standard is used to specify data-related sources of uncertainty, such as creator and coverage.In the technique developed, models are …


Using Floss Towards Βuilding Environmental Information Systems, Kostas Karatzas, Asteris Masouras Jul 2004

Using Floss Towards Βuilding Environmental Information Systems, Kostas Karatzas, Asteris Masouras

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Public access to environmental information is the basis for a higher degree of involvement of citizens and stakeholders in environmental decision-making [Haklay 2003][EU ISPO 1999]. Environmental Information Systems play a key role in contemporary urban environmental management strategies, and are a prerequisite for the proper, timely information of the public [Kampinnen 2001]; yet the fuzzy nature of environmental information [Denzer 2002] requires for systems that can make optimum use of informatics and telecommunications infrastructures to address environmental management needs, while remaining openended, easy to use and inexpensive to implement and operate. In this paper, we will attempt to present the …


Predicting Predation Efficiency Of Biocontrol Agents: Linking Behavior Of Individuals And Population Dynamics, Brigitte Tenhumberg Jul 2004

Predicting Predation Efficiency Of Biocontrol Agents: Linking Behavior Of Individuals And Population Dynamics, Brigitte Tenhumberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Behavioral ecology and population ecology are two separate branches of ecology; studies linkingthe effect of individual behavior and population dynamics are rare. This paper connects a stochastic optimalforaging model of insect predators with an age structured population model of its prey. I modeled syrphidlarvae feeding on cereal aphids, an interaction critical to cereal crops in Germany. The key stochastic elementin this model is the foraging success of predators, which influences survival and developmental time ofpredators and mortality of the prey population. The model predicts that the level of control incurred bypredators is highest if predators arrive when prey numbers are …