Digital Commons Network^™

Human Milk Oligosaccharide Compositions Illustrate Global Variations In Early Nutrition, Anita Vinjamuri, Jasmine C. C. Davis, Sarah M. Totten, Lauren D. Wu, Laura D. Klein, Melanie Martin, Ea Quinn, Brooke Scelza, Alicia Breakey, Michael Gurven, Grazyna Jasienska, Hillard Kaplan, Claudia Valeggia, Katie Hinde, Jennifer T. Smilowitz, Robin M. Bernstein, Angela M. Zivkovic, Michael J. Barratt, Jeffrey I. Gordon, Mark A. Underwood, David A. Mills, J. Bruce German, Carlito B. Lebrilla

ESI Publications

Background

Human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs) are an abundant class of compounds found in human milk and have been linked to the development of the infant, and specifically the brain, immune system, and gut microbiome.

Objectives

Advanced analytical methods were used to obtain relative quantitation of many structures in approximately 2000 samples from over 1000 mothers in urban, semirural, and rural sites across geographically diverse countries.

Methods

LC-MS−based analytical methods were used to profile the compounds with broad structural coverage and quantitative information. The profiles revealed their structural heterogeneity and their potential biological roles. Comparisons of HMO compositions were made between …

Cryptocurrencies Bandwagon…Fad Wave Or Investment Asset? Firm Level Analysis Of Panel Data In Egypt, Yasmine Galal

Theses and Dissertations

The crypto market is growing rapidly and gaining momentum globally. The current study is tackling the impact of the crypto exchanges on the stock market in Egypt. The author consolidated firm level data from DataStream and Cryptocurrency data from CoinDesk to conduct this study over the period 2014-2020. The methodology is based on Fixed Effect and IV-GMM models to study the differential impact across sectors and firm attributes. Our main findings can be highlighted as follows: (a) cryptocurrencies are substitutes to stocks. (b)Two periods are highlighted in the analysis: 2016 post currency devaluation and COVID-19 pandemic, where the adoption was …

Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy - Investigating The Relationship Between Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy: The Case Of Egypt, Salma Maher

Theses and Dissertations

In the past decade, financial inclusion has become an issue of increasing importance to developing nations. This is due to its perceived effects on poverty alleviation, sustainable growth and enhancing monetary policy effectiveness. Unfortunately, there is little empirical research on the effects of financial inclusion. The thesis hopes to contribute to the literature by inspecting the relationship between financial utilization indices and monetary policy in Egypt. The thesis utilizes quarterly data on outstanding deposits and loans from 2004 to 2020 as well as a VAR model – supplemented with an ARDL model – to test the aforementioned relationship. The thesis …

Regenerative Tourism Model: Challenges Of Adapting Concepts From Natural Science To Tourism Industry, Asif Hussain, Marie Haley

Journal of Sustainability and Resilience

The study proposes a regenerative tourism model. The application of the natural science ideas of regeneration needs to be clarified before the tourism industry can adopt a regenerative tourism model. Without such clarification, there is a high risk of ‘green washing’ and inappropriate adaption of a regenerative model. The borrowing of natural science to industry and its application in social sciences confuse the essence of the true concept of regeneration. In a regenerative agriculture context restoring a holistic system that mimics nature and includes social and economic spheres contributes to improving the whole system. When a social system aims to …

Sustainable Blueprint: Do Stock Investors Increase Emissions?, Olatunji Abdul Shobande, Lawrence Ogbeifun

Faculty and Student Publications

The lack of agreement on climate policies among stock-market investors has raised signifi-cant concerns about GHG-emission levels, likely reflected in asset pricing. This study uses annual data sourced from the World Bank from 1980 to 2019 to examine whether stock-market investments increase GHG emissions in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) coun-tries. The study employs the panel-standard fixed effects and the Arellano-Bover and Blundell–Bond dynamic methods and shows that stock-investor confidence is critical for emissions reduction in OECD countries. Additionally, the results highlight the potential mechanism through which the stock market can influence emissions in the OECD countries. We …

Nonignorable Missing Data, Single Index Propensity Score And Profile Synthetic Distribution Function, Xuerong Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

In missing data problems, missing not at random is difficult to handle since the response probability or propensity score is confounded with the outcome data model in the likelihood. Existing works often assume the propensity score is known up to a finite dimensional parameter. We relax this assumption and consider an unspecified single index model for the propensity score. A pseudo-likelihood based on the complete data is constructed by profiling out a synthetic distribution function that involves the unknown propensity score. The pseudo-likelihood gives asymptotically normal estimates. Simulations show the method compares favorably with existing methods.

Short Selling Etfs, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide novel evidence that arbitrageurs use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an avenue to circumvent short-sale constraints at the stock level. Using a large sample of U.S. equity ETF holdings, we document that shorting activity on ETFs rises with the difficulty of shorting underlying stocks. Stocks heavily shorted via their holding ETFs underperform those that are lightly shorted. The return predictability of ETF shorting is distinct from stock-level shorting measures and is concentrated among stocks that face severe arbitrage constraints. These findings suggest that ETFs allow arbitrageurs to target overpriced stocks that are otherwise difficult to short.

The No-Arbitrage Hypothesis And Inertia In Forward Markets, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Allaz (1992) showed that the no-arbitrage condition in forward markets is obtained as a feature of the equilibrium if the model allows for strategic behavior on the part of the buyers. He showed that having active buyers is equivalent to passive buyers plus the no-arbitrage hypothesis. We test this experimentally in a forward market by allowing for active buyer’s under exogenously or endogenously determined market closure. We further test an inertia hypothesis that looks at whether past participation in a spot-market results in quantities being limited in the forward market stage. Importantly, the no-arbitrage condition can only be tested with …

The Value Of Arbitrage, Eduardo Dávila, Daniel Graves, Cecilia Parlatore

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the social value of closing price differentials in financial markets. We show that arbitrage gaps (price differentials between markets) exactly correspond to the marginal social value of executing an arbitrage trade. We further show that arbitrage gaps and measures of price impact are sufficient to compute the total social value from closing an arbitrage gap. Theoretically, we show that, for a given arbitrage gap, the total social value of arbitrage is higher in more liquid markets. We apply our framework to compute the welfare gains from closing arbitrage gaps in the context of covered interest parity violations …

Spatial Wage Curves For Formal And Informal Workers In Turkey, Badi H. Baltagi, Yusuf Soner Başkaya

Center for Policy Research

This paper estimates spatial wage curves for formal and informal workers in Turkey using individual level data from the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey (THLFS) provided by TURKSTAT for the period 2008-2014. Unlike previous studies on wage curves for formal and informal workers, we extend the analysis to allow for spatial effects. We also consider household characteristics that would affect the selection into formal employment, informal employment, and non-employment. We find that the spatial wage curve relation holds both for formal and informal workers in Turkey for a variety of specifications. In general, the wages of informal workers are more …

Optimal Inter-Release Time Between Sequentially Released Products, Jackie Luan, K. Sudhir

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Marketers routinely use timing as a segmentation device through sequential product releases. While there has been much theoretical research on the optimal introduction strategy of sequential releases, there is little empirical research on this problem. This paper develops an econometric model to empirically solve the inter-release timing problem: it involves (1) developing and estimating a structural model of consumers’ choice for sequentially released products and (2) using the estimates of the structural model to solve for the optimal inter-release time. The empirical application focuses on the movie industry, where we specifically address the issue of the inter-release time between a …

The Efficiency Of Occupational Licensing During The Gilded And Progressive Eras: Evidence From Judicial Reviews, Mark T. Kanazawa

Department of Economics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Securing Repo: Counterparty Risk And Collateral Supply Effects In The Tri-Party Repo Market, Stephen H. Frank

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

I examine the co-variance between tri-party repurchase agreement (repo) spreads and proxies for collateral values and counterparty risk. Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC), the Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken measures to mitigate repo market instability. These measures have collectively placed the Fed astride repo markets as ongoing borrower, lender and purchaser of US Treasury and Agency securities. By analyzing the relationships between repo spreads, the US 10-year yield and the TED spread, I assess the effectiveness of Fed measures to mitigate repo market instability. Using multiple breakpoint Bai-Perron regression and Markov Switching tests, I find that these …

Investing In Low-Trust Countries: On The Role Of Social Trust In The Global Mutual Fund Industry, Massimo Massa, Chengwei Wang, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We hypothesize that social trust, in mitigating contracting incompleteness, may have an important effect on the activeness and effectiveness of delegated portfolio management. Using a complete sample of worldwide open-end mutual funds, we find that trust is positively associated with the activeness of funds and that trust-related active share delivers superior performance (e.g., approximately 2% per year for cross-border investments). Moreover, "trust in the market" and "trust in managers" play important yet different roles for different types of cross-border delegated portfolio management. Our results suggest that trust acts as a fundamental building block for delegated portfolio management.

A Multilevel Analysis Of Political Risk, Marlon J. Guzman Valdera

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This essay aims to diminish the conceptual fragmentation that exists, in relation to political risk, by introducing a multilevel approach to assess risk. While traditional approaches understand political risk to be a result of the political action of host-states against multinationals, this essay shows that there are other actors, like the host-nation civil society and the international community, that also play a role in the production of political risk. Although traditional approaches assert that political risk can solely target multinationals individually, this paper states that risk can affect a firm at an industrial and country level. I claim that political …

Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing Models, Somayeh Ahmadi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines co-movement across industry return and value and momentum asset price anomalies through a new perspective and uses machine learning and spatial econometrics approaches. The first chapter examines the main approaches developed in the cross-section asset pricing literature for finding risk variables. The second chapter focuses on spatial co-movement across US industry returns. We show that spatial co-movement explains the variance in US industry returns after accounting for exposure to common variables, serial dynamics, and industry sector-specific characteristics using a dynamic spatial panel data model. The results show that an investment strategy that buys industry portfolios with high …

Short-Term Impact Of Covid-19 On Consumption Spending And Its Underlying Mechanisms: Evidence From Singapore, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Xuan Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the short-term impact of COVID-19 on consumption spending and labor market outcomes. Using monthly panel data of individuals mainly aged 50–70 in Singapore, we find that COVID-19 reduced consumption spending and labor market outcomes immediately after its outbreak, and its negative impact quickly evolved. At its peak, the pandemic reduced total household consumption spending by 22.8% and labor income by 5.9% in April. Probability of full-time work also went down by 1.2 pp and 6.0 pp in April and May, respectively, but employment and self-employment were only mildly affected. Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that the reduction in consumption …

A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study provides new mechanisms for identifying and estimating explosive bubbles in mixed-root panel autoregressions with a latent group structure. A post-clustering approach is employed that combines a recursive k-means clustering al-gorithm with panel-data test statistics for testing the presence of explosive roots in time series trajectories. Uniform consistency of the k-means clustering algorithm is established, showing that the post-clustering estimate is asymptotically equivalent to the oracle counterpart that uses the true group identities. Based on the estimated group membership, right-tailed self-normalized t-tests and coefficient-based J-tests, each with pivotal limit distributions, are introduced to detect the explosive roots. The usual …

Risk Price Variation: The Missing Half Of Empirical Asset Pricing, Andrew John Patton, Brian M. Weller

Research Collection School Of Economics

Equal compensation across assets for the same risk exposures is a bedrock of asset pricing theory and empirics. Yet real-world frictions can violate this equality and create apparently high Sharpe ratio opportunities. We develop new methods for asset pricing with cross-sectional heterogeneity in compensation for risk. We extend k-means clustering to group assets by risk prices and introduce a formal test for whether differences in risk premiums across market segments are too large to occur by chance. We find significant evidence of cross-sectional variation in risk prices for almost all combinations of test assets, factor models, and time periods considered.

Essays In Development Macroeconomics, Miguel Orozco Vazquez

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics on development macroeconomics.

Chapter 1 - Misallocation of Resources and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Mexico. This paper aims to measure the gross output loss due to misallocation of resources in the manufacturing and service sectors in Mexico during 2008-2018 and identify the inputs of production related to it. To do so, I use Mexican Economic Censuses and an extension of Hsieh and Klenow (2009). I also include resource misallocation computations using data processed with a Bayesian model for editing and imputing data to correct for measurement error (MEC data), which …

The Effects Of Increased Access To Mail-In And Absentee Voting Due To Covid-19 On Voter Turnout In The 2020 Presidential Election, Irene Catlin Hedeman

Undergraduate Economic Review

With new voting policies in the fallout from the 2020 election, it is critical to understand their effects on voter turnout. I use a difference-in-differences approach to study effects of absentee voting policies from the fall of 2020 on voter turnout in four states. Using county-level data on the 2008-2020 presidential elections, I estimate turnout based on the county’s policy for the 2020 election. I use three sets of states, and I find positive effects on voter turnout for all three sets, two of which are significant. The results from the Montana policy hold through the robustness checks.

The Rise Of Community-Based Natural Resource Management Strategies As Explained By Transaction Costs, Keely A. Fisher, Marc R. Donnelly, Collin Adams

Undergraduate Economic Review

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is favored over its predecessor, the fortress approach, for common pool resource (CPR) management. We strive to identify variables associated with successful CBNRM programs, and analyze whether their presence transaction costs can explain the shift in favored conservation strategy. By examining nine case studies of large mammals in Africa, we found that out of eight variables, moderate monitoring and adequate program incentives were the most critical various factors in determining CBNRM program outcomes. Furthermore, these variables, as well as others, contributed to a decrease in transaction costs.

The Impact Of Democracy On Economic Growth In South Asia, Rijul Alvan Das, Siddharth --

Undergraduate Economic Review

One of the most fundamental themes that combine the disciplines of political science and economics is the role played by democracy in the economic growth of a country. Does democracy accelerate or hinder growth? The literature is divided on this topic with both sides presenting strong empirical and theoretical views. This paper studies this issue in the context of South Asia. Our theoretical framework brings out the key characteristics that are often highlighted in both sides of the intellectual debate. Using econometric methods and tools such as Pooled, Fixed and Random Effects estimates, we aim to study the relationship between …

Vector Autoregression Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, And Exchange Rate To The Jakarta Islamic Index, Ajeng Qurrota A'Yun, Nur Fatwa

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

ABSTRACT

The Indonesian Sharia Capital Market is an interesting thing to study because based on the 2019 Global Islamic Finance Report (GIFR) report, Indonesia is ranked first in the Global Sharia Financial Market. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is the sharia stock index that was first launched on the Indonesian capital market on July 3, 2000 and only consisted of the 30 most liquid Islamic shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study will try to uncover how the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia by using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and using monthly secondary data from 2012-2019. VAR …

Macroeconomic Shocks And Credit Risk Stress Testing: Evidence From The Egyptian Banking Sector, Noha Elgaliy

Theses and Dissertations

Stress tests can satisfy a range of policy objectives and ensure banks are adequately resilient to common economic shocks or specific financial risks. Though the growing body of literature on stress testing, the existing studies have usually focused on developed countries who have relatively stable macroeconomic indicator when compared developing countries. Therefore, this thesis aims to present a macroeconomic credit risk model that explicitly links a set of selected macroeconomic factors including gross domestic product, inflation, lending interest rates and exchange rate to banking non-preforming loans using evidence from the Egyptian banking sector over the time period from 2011 to …

Decision Making In International Supply Chain Investment, Noah Quint Curtin

Undergraduate Theses, Capstones, and Recitals

In this paper, supply chain decision-makers where and how to internationally invest into supply chains. I focus on outside institutional factors, and intra-firm behavioral factors that affect where and how they invest. I first review the literature on international investment at large. Later for my part of the research, I conduct a series of semi-structured interviews with international supply chain decision-maker primarily in Denver to better understand their processes. I find that they value business models higher than “hunches”, but also that tacit knowledge and relationships play an important role in their processes.

Digital Economy: Development And Future, Yong Shi

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

The digital economy has become a significant force in reorganizing global factor resources, reshaping global economic structure and global competitive landscape. This article first starts with the basic issues of digital economy, outlines three key components of digital economy, which are big data, intelligent algorithms and computing platforms. Then it reviews the development of international digital economies and the current status of China's digital economy, and summarizes the advantages and challenges of developing a digital economy in China. Finally, based on the "14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035", according …

Agricultural Productivity And Deforestation: Evidence From Brazil, Dmitri Szerman, Juliano Assunção, Molly Lipscomb, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

When agricultural productivity improves, farmers may react by expanding farming and further encroach on forest lands, or they may choose to intensify and produce more output with less land. We specify the conditions under which agricultural productivity can have such ambiguous effects on deforestation. We then examine the predictions of that model using county-level data from five waves of the Brazilian Census of Agriculture and satellite-based measures of land use. We identify productivity shocks using exogenous variation in rural electrification in Brazil during 1960-2000. We show that locations suitable for hydropower generation experienced improvements in crop yields, and that credit-constrained …

Encouragement And Distortionary Effects Of Conditional Cash Transfers, Gharad Bryan, Shyamal Chowdhury, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, Melanie Morten, Joeri Smits

Discussion Papers

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have become increasingly popular as a development strategy. These programs aim to reduce poverty or achieve other social goals by making the transfers conditional upon the receivers' actions. Conditions are designed to encourage some desirable behavior that recipients might otherwise under-invest in. An unintended consequence of the conditionality may be to distort recipients' actions in ways that lower their welfare. The transfer size plays an important role in shaping such distortionary effects. In certain circumstances, a larger transfer increases distortion more than that it raises benefits from stronger encouragement, implying that (i) there is an …

On The Estimation Of Cross-Firm Productivity Spillovers With An Application To Fdi, Emir Malikov, Shunan Zhao

Molasky Family Department of Economics and Real Estate Faculty Research

We develop a novel methodology for the proxy variable identification of firm productivity in the presence of productivity-modifying learning and spillovers which facilitates a unified "internally consistent" analysis of the spillover effects between firms. Contrary to the popular two-step empirical approach, ours does not postulate contradictory assumptions about firm productivity across the estimation steps. Instead, we explicitly accommodate crosssectional dependence in productivity induced by spillovers which facilitates identification of both the productivity and spillover effects therein simultaneously. We apply our model to study cross-firm spillovers in China’s electric machinery manufacturing, with a particular focus on productivity effects of inbound FDI.