Examining The Impact Of Logistics On Military Strength Among European Nations Using Data Envelopment Analysis,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Examining The Impact Of Logistics On Military Strength Among European Nations Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Hunter C. Kalin
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this study is to evaluate if logistics and economic factors affect how a country achieves its military power. Countries have focused on material factors such as nuclear weapons or massive military presence for far too long. What has not been discussed is, do other factors play a role in achieving military power. This study applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and linear regression to a series of United States European Command (EUCOM) countries and the United States to understand how efficient each country was at achieving its military power. Additionally, the overall relationship between military power and each …
Strategic Upgrade Scheduling And Portfolio Management To Fortify Contested Networks,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Strategic Upgrade Scheduling And Portfolio Management To Fortify Contested Networks, Justin L. Anderson
Theses and Dissertations
The nuclear command, control, and communication (NC3) network provides an effective deterrent against adversaries by maintaining robust communication between assets, operators, and decision makers. NC3 must receive a series of upgrades to remain an effective deterrent against evolving threats around the globe. Given a contested network and a portfolio of network upgrades, this research seeks an optimal upgrade schedule to maximize network resilience in support of NC3 modernization. Our research contributes a model that solves a budget-constrained network upgrade scheduling problem (NUSP). The NUSP is a defender-attacker-defender tri-level optimization model that achieves fortification via selecting and scheduling network upgrades. The …
Reducing Military Personnel Flight Wait Times Using A Simulation,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Reducing Military Personnel Flight Wait Times Using A Simulation, Matthew D. Cornman
Theses and Dissertations
A shortage of resources and system failures have put a strain on Military Personnel Flights (MPFs) being able to service their customers in a timely manner. Prolonged customer wait times are becoming a common problem in most MPFs creating problems between the relationship of the customers and leadership. This research uses historical data of an MPF to develop a simulation model of daily operations in an MPF. Subject matter expertise of current MPF operations and resource levels were used to provide a baseline model of the MPF queuing system. The analysis examines the effects of number of Defense Enrollment Eligibility …
Improving Air Battle Management Target Assignment Processes Via Approximate Dynamic Programming,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Improving Air Battle Management Target Assignment Processes Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Joseph M. Liles Iv
Theses and Dissertations
Military air battle managers face many challenges when directing operations in quickly evolving combat scenarios. These scenarios require rapid decisions to engage moving and unpredictable targets. In defensive operations, the success of a sequence of air battle management decisions is reflected by the friendly force's ability to maintain air superiority by defending friendly assets. We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model of the air battle management (ABM)problem, wherein a set of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) is tasked to defend a central asset from cruise missiles that arrive stochastically over time.
The Impact Of Triage Classification Errors On Military Medical Evacuation System Performance,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
The Impact Of Triage Classification Errors On Military Medical Evacuation System Performance, Emily S. Graves
Theses and Dissertations
In a deployed environment, evacuation requests of injured personnel are serviced by multiple forms of evacuation including medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) and casualty evacuation (CASEVAC). This thesis focuses on the optimal dispatching policy for MEDEVAC units when triage classification errors and blood transfusion kits are considered. A discounted, infinite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) model is formulated to analyze the MEDEVAC dispatching problem and determine the optimal policy based on the status of the MEDEVAC units in the system, the priority level of incoming requests, and the locations from which requests originate. A notional, representational scenario based in Azerbaijan is utilized to …
Resupply Operations Of A Dispersed Infantry Brigade Combat Team Using Approximate Dynamic Programming,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Resupply Operations Of A Dispersed Infantry Brigade Combat Team Using Approximate Dynamic Programming, Camero K. Song
Theses and Dissertations
Military sustainment planners must consider the effective employment of Cargo Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (CUAVs) into resupply operations under austere threat conditions. Viewed as an inventory routing problem, the complexities of resupplying dislocated Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) under dangerous and dynamic conditions warrant additional features to the baseline problem. This research models a military stochastic inventory routing problem with multiple routing (MIL SIRP- MR) as a Markov decision process (MDP) model and provides high-quality policy solutions using a combination of approximate dynamic programming and ordinal optimization techniques.
A Method For Visualizing The Structural Complexity Of Organizational Architectures,
2021
California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
A Method For Visualizing The Structural Complexity Of Organizational Architectures, Jacob Michael B. King
Master's Theses
To achieve a high level of performance and efficiency, contemporary aerospace systems must become increasingly complex. While complexity management traditionally focuses on a product’s components and their interconnectedness, organizational representation in complexity analysis is just as essential. This thesis addresses this organizational aspect of complexity through an Organizational Complexity Metric (OCM) to aid complexity management. The OCM augments Sinha’s structural complexity metric for product architectures into a metric that can be applied to organizations. Utilizing nested numerical design structure matrices (DSMs), a compact visual representation of organizational complexity was developed. Within the nested numerical DSM are existing organizational datasets used …
Allocation Of Scarce Healthcare Resources In A Military Treatment Facility During A Pandemic: A Comparison Of Goal Programming And Portfolio Decision Analysis Methods,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Allocation Of Scarce Healthcare Resources In A Military Treatment Facility During A Pandemic: A Comparison Of Goal Programming And Portfolio Decision Analysis Methods, Donald B. Hale
Theses and Dissertations
In a pandemic, healthcare decisionmakers face the challenge of allocating critical, but scarce healthcare resources in a dynamic, uncertain environment. Their decisions will not only affect the patients coming to the hospital for treatment, but also the Military Treatment Facility's personnel responsible. The decisionmaker must decide how to allocate these resources to achieve multiple, conflicting objectives under multiple constraints. In response, we propose a methodology for the implementation of both Portfolio Decision Analysis and Goal Programming. The steps of this methodology provide a framework with which the decisionmaker can develop optimal allocation of resources. This framework was then applied to …
Automated Sentiment Analysis For Personnel Survey Data In The Us Air Force Context,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Automated Sentiment Analysis For Personnel Survey Data In The Us Air Force Context, Julia M. Haines
Theses and Dissertations
When surveys are distributed across the Air Force (AF), whether it be an employee engagement survey, a climate survey, or similar, significant resources are put towards the development, distribution and analysis of the survey. However, when open ended questions are included on these surveys, respondent comments are generally underutilized, more often treated as a source for pull-quotes rather than a data source in and of themselves. This is due to a lack of transparency and confidence in the accuracy of machine-aided methods such as sentiment analysis and topic modeling. This confidence reduces further when the text has special context, such …
An Examination Of Potential Training Regression Recognition Algorithms For Pilot Training Next,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
An Examination Of Potential Training Regression Recognition Algorithms For Pilot Training Next, Alex R. Gaines
Theses and Dissertations
The initiative to reduce the Air Forces serious pilot shortage lead to the Pilot Training Next (PTN) program. Under PTN, student pilots progress at an individual rate while making increased use of simulator-based training resources. A previous thesis used data from the first PTN class to conceptualize and prototype a student training flight scheduler. This scheduler did not consider training events required to bring students back to achieved levels of performance if in fact that student performance had regressed. This thesis examines three classes of PTN student data to determine whether student regression in training progression can be detected. A …
Predicting F-16 Cause Code H Micap Hours Using Jmp Regression Analysis,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Predicting F-16 Cause Code H Micap Hours Using Jmp Regression Analysis, Scott E. Carr
Theses and Dissertations
Emergency demands for aircraft parts, MICAPs (Mission Impaired Capability Awaiting Parts) are one of the leading issues affecting mission capability supply rates for fighter aircraft. Cause code H MICAPS, those with a known demand level, but no supply available, are particularly troublesome and difficult to resolve. These MICAPS are due to failures by the supply chain to replenish stock levels within acceptable time limits. Numerous studies have identified a clear need for proactive measures to reduce MICAP hours. This would significantly improve aircraft availability. This study uses regression analysis implemented in JMP software to build models with a goal of …
Ccsfs/Ksc Total Lightning Warning Radii Optimization For Merlin Using Preexisting Lightning Areas,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Ccsfs/Ksc Total Lightning Warning Radii Optimization For Merlin Using Preexisting Lightning Areas, Kimberly G. Holland
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to optimize lightning warning radii specifications for the 45th Space Wing (45 SW), thus reducing the number of unnecessary warnings that delay ground processing needed for space launch execution at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. This thesis sought to answer two key research questions addressing: 1) What radius reduction effectively balances both safety and operations and do reduction recommendations from previous research align with results from the new detection system? 2) What insights can be gained from comparing measurement results for seasonal lightning events as well as lightning types? This …
Examining Crucial Demographic Trends In General Aviation,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Examining Crucial Demographic Trends In General Aviation, Joshua D. Meyer
Theses and Dissertations
America's General Aviation sector has witnessed significant demographic shifts since the turn of the century. The number of certified, private pilots, non-fatal aircraft accidents, fatal aircraft accidents, and number of general aviation hours flown are all in decline. Meanwhile, the average age of an American private pilot has increased by several years. All of these factors indicate that the industry is in decline. This study determined via mathematical, linear regression that times relationship to the number of annual, fatal General Aviation accidents and the number of certified private pilots is negative. It also proved that the average age of the …
Application Of Game Theory Based Design To U.S. Space Systems,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Application Of Game Theory Based Design To U.S. Space Systems, Benjamin C. Donohoo
Theses and Dissertations
Modern defense systems are designed to static sets of requirements and specifications. This process has worked well in the past but fails to account for the strategic interdependence of design choices made prior to operating systems. However, as the world becomes increasingly competitive, and as the space domain becomes increasingly congested and contested, such interdependence of design can be described using Game Theory. Game Theory is the mathematical study of strategy, actions and payoffs between rational, self-interested actors. Limited extant research has applied Game Theory to system design but focused on a single system being designed cooperatively within a single …
Model Based Systems Engineering Demonstrator For Air Worthiness With Performance Data Of Department Of Defense Rotorcraft,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Model Based Systems Engineering Demonstrator For Air Worthiness With Performance Data Of Department Of Defense Rotorcraft, Bretton M. Bethel
Theses and Dissertations
Airworthiness is a process of certifying that an aircraft can be safety operated within specified bounds. This process is essential to ensuring the safety of the aircraft, its personnel, and the surrounding assets. A Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach can be utilized as a method to improve the airworthiness process. MBSE is the methodology of creating and utilizing domain models as a means of exchanging and presenting information for a wide variety of disciplines to understand and replacing previous document-based exchange. The objective of this research is to develop a reference architecture with a MBSE approach to perform the airworthiness …
A Fuzzy Framework For The Air Force Mission Dependency Index,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
A Fuzzy Framework For The Air Force Mission Dependency Index, Devin M. Depalmer
Theses and Dissertations
AFIMSC completed an MDI modernization to support better risk-based decision-making by utilizing tactical mission-owner knowledge to quantify the relationship between facilities and the missions they enable. The resulting facility-mission risk scores leave room for improvement for better use of their intended purposes due to (1) the vulnerability of cognitive biases affecting survey responses due to the use of a traditional risk matrix (2) the lack of resolution between scores from risk ties and (3) the failure to include information from the operational and strategic organizational hierarchy level. This research addresses these concerns through the novel implementation of a fuzzy logic …
An Analysis Of Error Structure And Theoretical First Unit Cost In Learning Curve Theory Models,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
An Analysis Of Error Structure And Theoretical First Unit Cost In Learning Curve Theory Models, Alexander D. Pollack
Theses and Dissertations
The dilemma with learning curves and actual costs is "fitting square pegs into round holes." Alternative regression techniques or further modifications to Y=aXb may address discrepancies in modeling observed data with learning curves. Adequate data permits further analysis of the constants, variables, and factors that make up a learning curve model. The analysis involves trying a nonlinear solver on the traditional learning curve models (i.e., Wright's cumulative average theory and Crawford's unit learning curve theory) and changing the theoretical first unit cost (T1) to the actual first unit cost (A1). Mergers and acquisitions in the aircraft industry may have …
Optimizing Cost And Performance Of Infrastrucure Alternatives At Contingency Bases In A Hub-And-Spoke Network,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Optimizing Cost And Performance Of Infrastrucure Alternatives At Contingency Bases In A Hub-And-Spoke Network, Kyle J. Rodriguez
Theses and Dissertations
Military contingency bases require substantial resources and funding sustain and are often not connected to an infrastructure grid. Infrastructure assets produce the required outputs for sustainment, but are often expensive and inefficient, producing a significant logistical burden. With the increasing near-peer threats of opposing military forces, there is a need for more self-sufficient contingency bases with alternatives that reduce resources usage and the cost of sustainment. Accordingly, the goal of this research is to develop an optimization model capable of selecting infrastructure alternative combinations that minimize the overall resource usage and cost of sustainment at the contingency base level.
Training Subject Matter Experts To Make Better Estimates,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Training Subject Matter Experts To Make Better Estimates, Cameron R. Scott
Theses and Dissertations
Subject Matter Expert (SME) Elicitation is commonly used as a cost-estimation method when no historical data exists. The elicitation process assumes Subject Matter Experts are the resident experts in their individual fields of study. In addition, the process assumes SMEs provide reasonably trustworthy cost estimates that follow the tenets of probability theory. This last assumption is the subject of this study. A Navy sponsored e-learning course was created to help train SMEs in understanding probability distributions (O'Hagan, 2019). We conducted a study hypothesizing that taking the e-learning course would improve study participant accuracy in estimating confidence intervals for probability distributions.
Contract Information Extraction Using Machine Learning,
2021
Air Force Institute of Technology
Contract Information Extraction Using Machine Learning, Zachary E. Butcher
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Sustainment Center assisted by the Data Analytics Resource Team and the Defense Logistics Agency collected four million contracts onto one of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s high power computers. This thesis focuses on the effort to determine if parts are available through those contracts. Some information is extracted using machine learning in combination with natural language processing. Where machine learning methods are unsuccessful or inappropriate, text mining techniques, such as pattern recognition and rules, are used. Upon completion, the information is combined into a Gantt chart for quick evaluation. Only 21% of the contracts have their information …
