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Cost Estimating Using A New Learning Curve Theory For Non-Constant Production Rates, Dakotah Hogan, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru, Shawn M. Valentine 2020 Air Force Cost Analysis Agency

Cost Estimating Using A New Learning Curve Theory For Non-Constant Production Rates, Dakotah Hogan, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

Traditional learning curve theory assumes a constant learning rate regardless of the number of units produced. However, a collection of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that learning rates decrease as more units are produced in some cases. These diminishing learning rates cause traditional learning curves to underestimate required resources, potentially resulting in cost overruns. A diminishing learning rate model, namely Boone’s learning curve, was recently developed to model this phenomenon. This research confirms that Boone’s learning curve systematically reduced error in modeling observed learning curves using production data from 169 Department of Defense end-items. However, high amounts of variability in …


United States Department Of Defense (Dod) Real Property Repair, Alterations, Maintenance, And Construction Project Contract Data: 2009–2020, Tyler Stout, Adam Teston, Brent T. Langhals, Justin D. Delorit, Carlton Hendrix, Steven J. Schuldt 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

United States Department Of Defense (Dod) Real Property Repair, Alterations, Maintenance, And Construction Project Contract Data: 2009–2020, Tyler Stout, Adam Teston, Brent T. Langhals, Justin D. Delorit, Carlton Hendrix, Steven J. Schuldt

Faculty Publications

Nearly one-half of all construction projects exceed planned costs and schedule, globally [1]. Owners and construction managers can analyze historical project performance data to inform cost and schedule overrun risk-reduction strategies. Though, the majority of open-source project datasets are limited by the number of projects, data dimensionality, and location. A significant global customer of the construction industry, the Department of Defense (DoD) maintains a vast database of historical project data that can be used to determine the sources and magnitude of construction schedule and cost overruns for many continental and international locations. The selection of data provided by the authors …


Operationalized Intent For Improving Coordination In Human-Agent Teams, Michael F. Schneider 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Operationalized Intent For Improving Coordination In Human-Agent Teams, Michael F. Schneider

Theses and Dissertations

With the increasing capabilities of artificial intelligent agents (AIAs) integrated into multi-agent systems, future concepts include human-agent teams (HATs) in which the members perform fluidly as a coordinated team. Research on coordination mechanisms in HATs is largely focused on AIAs providing information to humans to coordinate better (i.e. coordination from the AIA to the human). We focus on the compliment where AIAs can understand the operator to better synchronize with the operator (i.e. from the human to the AIA). This research focuses specifically on AIA estimation of operator intent. We established the Operationalized Intent framework which captures intent in a …


Analysis Of The Factors That Correlate With Transition Outcomes Of Commercial Technology Prototype Projects, Matthew D. Schoemaker 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Analysis Of The Factors That Correlate With Transition Outcomes Of Commercial Technology Prototype Projects, Matthew D. Schoemaker

Theses and Dissertations

A key metric of success for Department of Defense (DoD) Research and Development organizations is the ability to transition technologies and prototypes. Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering's prototyping guide shows successful transition pathways come in the forms of transition to operational use, rapid fielding, existing program adoption, or a new acquisition program (2018). There are many factors that occur throughout a prototype projects lifecycle that impact the likelihood of transition. These factors include both qualitative and quantitative factors. Limited research has been performed, past the best practice considerations, of what factors impact transition of prototyping …


Cost Analysis Of Optimized Islanded Energy Systems In A Dispersed Air Base Conflict, Jay F. Pearson, Torrey J. Wagner, Justin D. Delorit 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Cost Analysis Of Optimized Islanded Energy Systems In A Dispersed Air Base Conflict, Jay F. Pearson, Torrey J. Wagner, Justin D. Delorit

Faculty Publications

The United States Air Force has implemented a dispersed air base strategy to enhance mission effectiveness for near-peer conflicts. Asset dispersal places many smaller bases across a wide geographic area, which increases resupply requirements and logistical complexity. Hybrid energy systems reduce resupply requirements through sustainable, off-grid energy production. This paper presents a novel hybrid energy renewable delivery system (HERDS) model capable of (1) selecting the optimal hybrid energy system design that meets demand at the lowest net present cost and (2) optimizing the delivery of the selected system using existing Air Force cargo aircraft. The novelty of the model’s capabilities …


A Data-Driven Framework For Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Integrating Markov Decision Processes, Hidden Markov Models And Predictive Modeling, Hossein Kamalzadeh 2020 Southern Methodist University

A Data-Driven Framework For Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Integrating Markov Decision Processes, Hidden Markov Models And Predictive Modeling, Hossein Kamalzadeh

Operations Research and Engineering Management Theses and Dissertations

The problem of decision making under uncertainty can be broken down into two parts. First, how do we learn about the world? This involves the problem of modeling the system and its uncertainty. Secondly, given what we currently know about the world, how should we decide what to do, taking into account uncertainty of future events and observations that may change our conclusions. Many systems evolve over time and often the next state of the system is not known with certainty, often modeled as a probability distribution over system states. Dealing with such systems especially when we can make a …


Curriculum Optimization Via Activity-On-Node Network Modeling, Caroline Rhomberg 2020 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Curriculum Optimization Via Activity-On-Node Network Modeling, Caroline Rhomberg

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

University degree plans must be carefully planned so that they allow students the best chance of succeeding. Although for the better, with the advancement of technology and its incorporation into the classroom, it can be argued that the complexity and difficulty of some long-established engineering core classes has changed. With this trend certain combinations of engineering courses have become unfavorable in terms of course withdrawal and fail rates stemming from the interaction of course challenges. A wealth of data has been collected on this topic and will be utilized in this project. As one can imagine, the probability of success …


Optimal Emergency Response Shelter Placement Based On Population Vulnerabilities, Alexander Johnson 2020 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Optimal Emergency Response Shelter Placement Based On Population Vulnerabilities, Alexander Johnson

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Hurricane Florence was a category 4 storm which caused an estimated $24 billion in damages and the loss of 53 lives. During and immediately following Florence, there were 235 shelters operating in and around the North Carolina (NC) area. These were used as temporary housing for storm victims and by emergency responders to distribute relief supplies and provide medical services. Emergency officials consider several factors when deciding where to open shelters, including, for example, proximity of victims and their levels of medical needs. Access disparities, or factors creating barriers that limit entry to shelters, put certain populations and regions at …


Intruder Preference And Route Selection: A Gis Data Approach, Griffin Mathews 2020 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Intruder Preference And Route Selection: A Gis Data Approach, Griffin Mathews

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested an Engineering Research and Development Center study incorporating modeling and simulation to determine the selection, amount, and optimal location of sensor suites along the U.S. Border. The study objective is to maximize the probability of detection and apprehension of illegal elements attempting to enter. A study on intruders and their preferences were conducted to create an intruder preference value map to determine the preferred intruder routes taken after crossing the border. The results of this research were integrated into another study on the selection and simulation of sensor suites.

Intruder context and preferences …


Ground Weather Radar Signal Characterization Through Application Of Convolutional Neural Networks, Stephen M. Lee 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Ground Weather Radar Signal Characterization Through Application Of Convolutional Neural Networks, Stephen M. Lee

Theses and Dissertations

The 45th Weather Squadron supports the space launch efforts out of the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station for the Department of Defense, NASA, and commercial customers through weather assessments. Their assessment of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) for avoidance of natural and rocket triggered lightning to launch vehicles is critical in approving space shuttle and rocket launches. The LLCC includes standards for cloud formations, which requires proper cloud identification and characterization methods. Accurate reflectivity measurements for ground weather radar are important to meet the LLCC for rocket triggered lightning. Current linear interpolation methods for ground …


Lightning Prediction For Space Launch Using Machine Learning Based Off Of Electric Field Mills And Lightning Detection And Ranging Data, Anson Cheng 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Lightning Prediction For Space Launch Using Machine Learning Based Off Of Electric Field Mills And Lightning Detection And Ranging Data, Anson Cheng

Theses and Dissertations

Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station, FL, where the Air Force conducts space launches, are in an area of frequent lightning strikes, which is main obstacle in meeting launch goals. The 45th Weather Squadron (45th WS) ensures that any weather safety requirements are met during pre-launch and actual space launch. Using only summer months from three years’ worth of lightning detection and ranging (LDAR) and electric field mill (EFM) data from KSC, several feedforward neural networks are constructed. Separate models are built for each EFM and trained by adjusting parameters to forecast lightning 30 minutes out in the …


Preferred Treatment Methods For Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease, James L. Deitschel 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Preferred Treatment Methods For Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease, James L. Deitschel

Theses and Dissertations

Shared decision making is the concept of physicians involving patients in the treatment planning process. The University of Maryland Medical Center is interested in applying shared decision making to the treatment of patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). The two treatment methods analyzed in this study were medical management and surgery. To explore patient preferences between these two alternatives, a discrete choice experiment (DCE) was employed. The responses for the DCE were binary, so logistic regression models were explored. The conditional logistic regression model was determined to be the most appropriate for this analysis. After step-wise regression was performed, a …


An Analysis Of Learning Curve Theory & Diminishing Rates Of Learning, Dakotah W. Hogan 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

An Analysis Of Learning Curve Theory & Diminishing Rates Of Learning, Dakotah W. Hogan

Theses and Dissertations

Traditional learning curve theory assumes a constant learning rate regardless of the number of units produced; however, a collection of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that learning rates decrease as more units are produced in some cases. These diminishing learning rates cause traditional learning curves to underestimate required resources, potentially resulting in cost overruns. A diminishing learning rate model, Boones Learning Curve (2018), was recently developed to model this phenomenon. This research confirmed that Boones Learning Curve is more accurate in modeling observed learning curves using production data of 169 Department of Defense end-items. However, further empirical analysis revealed deficiencies …


Optimizing The Environmental And Economic Sustainability Of Remote Community Infrastructure, Jamie E. Filer, Justin D. Delorit, Andrew J. Hoisington, Steven J. Schuldt 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Optimizing The Environmental And Economic Sustainability Of Remote Community Infrastructure, Jamie E. Filer, Justin D. Delorit, Andrew J. Hoisington, Steven J. Schuldt

Faculty Publications

Remote communities such as rural villages, post-disaster housing camps, and military forward operating bases are often located in remote and hostile areas with limited or no access to established infrastructure grids. Operating these communities with conventional assets requires constant resupply, which yields a significant logistical burden, creates negative environmental impacts, and increases costs. For example, a 2000-member isolated village in northern Canada relying on diesel generators required 8.6 million USD of fuel per year and emitted 8500 tons of carbon dioxide. Remote community planners can mitigate these negative impacts by selecting sustainable technologies that minimize resource consumption and emissions. However, …


Defense Contractor Profit, Clayton S. Eilert 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Defense Contractor Profit, Clayton S. Eilert

Theses and Dissertations

This research seeks to achieve two objectives: 1) to provide a comprehensive survey of research related to defense contractor profitability, and 2) to conduct an updated analysis of such profitability. No previous comprehensive survey of the topic was found in the academic literature. Therefore, the provision of such a survey may significantly benefit future researchers. A paucity of recent defense contractor profit research related was identified; only one published study analyzed data after 2000 and none used data more recent than 2010. This research reconciles the gap in recent defense contractor profit studies via objective two. Panel data analysis is …


Trade-Space Analysis Of A Small Unmanned Vehicle System For Radiological Search Missions, Sam B. Harriger 2020 Air Force Institute of Technology

Trade-Space Analysis Of A Small Unmanned Vehicle System For Radiological Search Missions, Sam B. Harriger

Theses and Dissertations

Nuclear and radiological terrorism is a persistent threat to United States national security. The research and development of new technological capabilities is vital to bolstering emergency response and prevention capabilities in support of national security initiatives. This research characterized the applicable trade-space for a system of unmanned vehicles deployed for search, detection, and identification of radiological source material. Exploration included the development of a CONOPS, a functional decomposition and physical allocation, design considerations, and an analysis of feasibility and utility. The concept system comprises of a ground control station, ground vehicle, hybrid-electric multirotor, and fixed-wing vehicle with an open architecture …


A Sequential Partial Information Bomber‐Defender Shooting Problem, Krishna Kalyanam, David W. Casbeer, Meir Pachter 2020 PARC

A Sequential Partial Information Bomber‐Defender Shooting Problem, Krishna Kalyanam, David W. Casbeer, Meir Pachter

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.


Dual-Axis Solar Tracker, Bryan Kennedy 2020 Central Washington University

Dual-Axis Solar Tracker, Bryan Kennedy

All Undergraduate Projects

Renewable energies, and fuels that are not fossil fuel-based, are one of the prolific topics of debate in modern society. With climate change now becoming a primary focus for scientists and innovators of today, one of the areas for the largest amount of potential and growth is that of the capturing and utilization of Solar Energy. This method involves using a mechanical system to track the progression of the sun as it traverses the sky throughout the day. A dual-axis solar tracker such as the one designed and built for this project, can follow the sun both azimuthally and in …


Transit Agencies Performance Assessment And Implications, Parisa Hajibabaee 2020 West Virginia University

Transit Agencies Performance Assessment And Implications, Parisa Hajibabaee

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

Although most transit systems operate in small urban and rural areas in the United States, these systems have rarely received the same attention as their urban counterparts, both in terms of ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of their operations and understanding the factors that affect their performance. This thesis's main goals are to assess the performance of rural and small urban public transit agencies and help them evaluate adopting a ridehailing program, thereby improving their performance. We applied operations research and decision-making tools to two public transit projects in small urban and rural areas. The first project focuses on three …


Effect Of Particle Concentration, Sealing Condition And Breathing Rate On Total Inward Leakage For N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators, Taoreed T. Lawal 2020 West Virginia University

Effect Of Particle Concentration, Sealing Condition And Breathing Rate On Total Inward Leakage For N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators, Taoreed T. Lawal

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

Several researchers have considered the relationship between total inward leakage (TIL) and other parameters such as sealing condition, particle concentration, type of particulate material breathing parameters, etc., however, there is dearth of information on the effects of varying particle concentration on the penetration efficiency of filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs), hence, this study aims to study the effect of varying NaCl particle concentration, sealing condition and breathing rate on the TIL as a result of the filtering efficiency of the filters.

To achieve this, we followed the sampling procedure used by He et al., 2014. Four different sealing conditions (SCs) namely; …


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