Operational Research Commons^™

An Examination Of Statistical Rigor Infused Into The Kc-46 Flight Test Program, Sean C. Ritter

Theses and Dissertations

The KC-46 program is bringing on-line the replacement aircraft for the KC-135. Although not a new development program, but rather a modification program, there are extensive plans for the flight testing of the KC-46. Recent DoD emphasis mandates the use of statistical design principles for DoD test and evaluation. This project will examine the planned flight test program for KC-46 and reconsider components of that program based on principles of statistical rigor. Of particular focus will be the reliability and maintainability aspects of the flight test program. Current methodology assumes a constant failure rate in all situations, implying that the …

Estimating The Probability Of Being The Best System: A Generalized Method And Nonparametric Hypothesis Test, Aaron M. Lessin

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides two new approaches for comparing competing systems. Instead of making comparisons based on long run averages or mean performance, the first paper presents a generalized method for calculating the probability that a single system is the best among all systems in a single trial. Unlike current empirical methods, the generalized method calculates the exact multinomial probability that a single system is best among competing systems. The ability to avoid time consuming empirical estimate techniques could potentially result in significant savings in both time and money when comparing alternate systems. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted comparing the …

Vehicle Minimization For The Multimodal Pickup And Delivery Problem With Time Windows, Benjamin A . Clapp

Theses and Dissertations

The algorithm proposed here is used for heuristic solutions for the Multimodal Multiple Vehicle Routing Problem with Unloading Capacity, Pickup and Dropoff, and Time Windows, solved so as to minimize the number of vehicles used, subject to varying objective function values for each vehicle. The MVRP is simplified and split into a routing problem and a scheduling problem. The routing problem is addressed by Dijkstra's Algorithm. This generates a new network for the second stage of the algorithm. It is assumed that the shortest path is the correct path to use, and shipments each travel unimodally. The scheduling problem is …

Aerial Refueling Simulator Validation Using Operational Experimentation And Response Surface Methods With Time Series Responses, Alexander P. Hillman

Theses and Dissertations

An important program in the Department of Defense is the KC-46 Supertanker. Dubbed the future of the Air Force's aerial refueling inventory, the KC-46 will replace dozens of ailing previous generation tanker aircraft. The Aerial Refueling Airplane Simulator Qualification document governs the methods by which Air Mobility Command validates its simulators, some of which will be KC-46 simulators in the near future. The methodology set forward in this thesis utilizes historical data of aircraft performance from similar air frames to gain statistical insight into the performance design space of the KC-46. Leveraging this insight, the methodology provides through a framework …

Control Variates And Optimal Designs In Metamodeling, Joshua B. Meents

Theses and Dissertations

At the heart of most modeling issues is a focus on variance reduction. Experimental designs are chosen based on both efficiency and a variety of variance based criteria. In many situations due to cost, time and availability issues it is beneficial to produce metamodels of simulations. Experimental designs for the region of operability are constructed to collect the simulation output required to construct representative metamodels. Independently, the method of control variates is a well established technique often employed to reduce variance in discrete event simulations. This thesis explores the variance reduction benefits that can be obtained by combining optimal experimental …

Evaluating Courses Of Actions At The Strategic Planning Level, Alhmet Ozdemir

Theses and Dissertations

Like almost all real life problems, Strategic planning is a good example of a problem with more than one objective. One of the most important steps of strategic planning is to generate and evaluate the courses of actions (COA) which can fulfill the mission and vision of the organization. This is a critical process since it is impractical to start the executed COA over. In this research, value-focused thinking (VFT) is used as a decision analysis tool to assess COAs. A general model is created to select the best COA for strategic planning such as air force operation planning. To …

Polyparking, Christopher Blackmer, Michael Suttie

Biomedical Engineering

The purpose of this senior project is to analyze the various options for the implementation of a parking lot information system on the California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo campus. This system would involve three main components: physical counting hardware, a database and analysis organization system, and a user interface for disseminating the gathered information. The project investigates and provides commentary on various available and commonplace systems, and the benefits and drawbacks of these systems. During the course of the project, a flexible database and user-interface was developed in Microsoft Access, which will allow counter output to be gathered …

Location And Capacity Modeling Of Network Interchanges, Aldo D. Fabregas

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Network design decisions, especially those pertaining to urban infrastructure, are made by a central authority or network leader, and taking into consideration the network users or followers. These network decision problems are formulated as non-linear bi-level programming problems. In this work, a continuous network design problem (CNDP) and discrete network design problem (DNDP) bi-level optimization programs are proposed and solved in the context of transportation planning. The solution strategy involved reformulation and linearization as a single-level program by introducing the optimality conditions of the lower level problem into the upper level problem. For the CNDP, an alternative linearization algorithm (modified …

Exact And Representative Algorithms For Multi Objective Optimization, Ozgu Turgut

Wayne State University Dissertations

In most real-life problems, the decision alternatives are evaluated with multiple conflicting criteria. The entire set of non-dominated solutions for practical problems is impossible to obtain with reasonable computational effort. Decision maker generally needs only a representative set of solutions from the actual Pareto front. First algorithm we present is for efficiently generating a well dispersed non-dominated solution set representative of the Pareto front which can be used for general multi objective optimization problem. The algorithm first partitions the criteria space into grids to generate reference points and then searches for non-dominated solutions in each grid. This grid-based search utilizes …

Engineering Problem Solving And Sustained Learning: A Mixed Methods Study To Explore The Dynamics Of Engineering Knowledge Creation, Rachel Itabashi-Campbell

Wayne State University Dissertations

This dissertation research explores processes by which engineering problem solving (EPS) results in sustained organizational learning. Approaching from a constructionist perspective, the study empirically examines the knowledge creation dynamics instigated by product-related problems using a mixed methods research approach. The research has identified the Japanese concept of ba, defined in this study as "shared experiential space," as a key construct that explains the phenomena of interest. A new framework that the study has developed, which interprets EPS as an epistemic journey to attain system-wide improvements, is highly complementary to the traditional structured routine based approaches to engineering operations and …

Demand Modeling And Capacity Planning For Innovative Short Life-Cycle Products, Saman Alaniazar

Wayne State University Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on demand modeling and capacity planning for innovative short life-cycle products. We first developed a new model in the class of stochastic Bass formulations that addresses the shortcomings of models from the extant literature. The proposed model considers the common fact that the market potential of a product is not fixed and might change during a life-cycle due to exogenous (e.g., economic- or competitors-related) or endogenous (e.g., quality-related) factors. Allowing this parameter (market potential in the Bass model) to follow a geometric random walk, we have showed that the future demand of a product in each period …

Accounting For Errors When Using Systems Approaches, Kevin Macg. Adams, Peggy Hester

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Complex systems problems require the use of a formal philosophical construct and dictate the use of a rigorous systems approach. A systems approach may utilize one of a variety of proven methods, but in each case it involves the imposition of order that ranges from the philosophical to the procedural. Independent of the construct or rigor used to address the complex systems problem is the opportunity to commit a number of errors as part of a systems approach. This paper will discuss six classifications for problem solving errors that may be experienced during the application of a systems approach as …

Simulation Modeling And Analysis Of Complex Port Operations With Multimodal Transportation, Mariam Kotachi, Ghaith Rabadi, Mohammad F. Obeid

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

World trade has been increasing dramatically in the past two decades, and as a result containers exchange has grown significantly. Accordingly, container terminals are expanding to meet this increase and new container ports have opened. Ports with one or more container terminals are considered complex systems in which many resources, entities and transporters interact to achieve the objective of safely moving containers delivered by ships inland as well as loading containers delivered by trucks and rail onto ships. Ports with multimodal transportation systems are in particular complex as they typically operate with ships arriving to one or more terminals, multiple …

A Theory Of Emergence And Entropy In Systems Of Systems, John J. Johnson Iv, Andreas Tolk, Andres Sousa-Poza

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Systems of Systems (SOS) meet vital needs in our society by providing capabilities that are not possible by their discrete components or subsystems. Some SOS are engineered to produce predictable results, yet they can still display emergent behavior. These behaviors are often considered negative because they are not a function of the design. However, emergent behavior can also be serendipitous and produce unexpected positive results. The authors formalize a theory of emergence based on entropy. The theory has explanatory value for emergence as an ontological and phenomenological concept in systems of systems. © 2013 The Authors.

Investigation Into The Measure, Correlate And Predict Methodologies Used In Wind Farm Design Software, Brendan O'Sullivan

Theses

This paper is focused on the Measure Correlate and Predict (MCP) methodologies used to estimate long term wind resource at a prospective site. The first common step in all MCP methodologies is a successful wind measurement campaign at the prospective site. This campaign involves the erection of a wind measurement mast (ideally to the hub height of the proposed turbine) and careful selection of booms, mountings and anemometers. The wind measurement campaign is a vital part of the process as the correlation and prediction analysis is only as accurate as the measured wind data. Correlation is a measure of the …

Using Modelling And Simulation To Improve Elderly Care In Ireland: A Case Study, Mohamed Ragab, Wael Rashwan, Waleed Abo-Hamad, Amr Arisha

Articles

Health care services both globally and domestically - are encountering critical issues due to the increasing demand for services at the time of economic recession. Hospital performance is subject to many constraints, and planning is made more difficult by the complexity and uncertainty of demand. Population ageing is creating immense pressures on healthcare facilities across the world, leaving them struggling to cope with the growing demand for elderly healthcare services. Current demand-supply gaps result in prolonged waiting times for patients and substantial cost burdens for healthcare systems due to delayed discharges. This paper reports on a project that uses modelling …

Evaluating Food Safety Systems Development And Implementation By Quantifying Haccp Training Durability, Marienne A. Anandappa

Theses and Dissertations--Animal and Food Sciences

HACCP-based food safety programs have been widely acclaimed, accepted and implemented as an effective means of managing food safety risks. While HACCP training is a cornerstone of managing HACCP programs, there is little information about the effectiveness of HACCP training and the durability of HACCP knowledge. Findings reveal a link between involvement level in HACCP activities and the accuracy of HACCP knowledge over time. Opportunities for peer training in HACCP, irrespective of overall experience in the food industry provide favorable circumstances for maintaining accuracy of HACCP knowledge. The optimal window for engaging employees in HACCP is directly following the completion …

Novel Models And Algorithms For Uncertainty Management In Power Systems, Long Zhao

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is a collection of previously-published manuscript and conference papers. In this dissertation, we will deal with a stochastic unit commitment problem with cooling systems for gas generators, a robust unit commitment problem with demand response and uncertain wind generation, and a power grid vulnerability analysis with transmission line switching. The latter two problems correspond to our theoretical contributions in two-stage robust optimization, i.e., how to efficiently solve a two-stage robust optimization, and how to deal with mixed-integer recourse in robust optimization. Due to copyright issue, this dissertation does not include any methodology papers written by the author during …

A Methodology For Scheduling Operating Rooms Under Uncertainty, Marbelly Paola Davila

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

An operating room (OR) is considered to be one of the most costly functional areas within hospitals as well as its major profit center. It is known that managing an OR department is a challenging task, which requires the integration of many actors (e.g., patients, surgeons, nurses, technicians) who may have conflicting interests and priorities.

Considering these aspects, this dissertation focuses on developing a simulation based methodology for scheduling operating rooms under uncertainty, which reflects the complexity, uncertainty and variability associated with surgery.

We split the process of scheduling ORs under uncertainty into two main components. First, we designed a …

The Enterprise Aid Methodology: Concepts, Thomas J. Meyers, Patrick T. Hester

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The Enterprise AID − for assessment, improvement, and design − methodology is a systems science-, operational test and evaluation-, and multicriteria decision analysis-based approach to design and deployment of performance measurement systems (PMSs) tailored to specific enterprises pursuing any or all of enterprise assessment, improvement, or design. Its two phases of design and deployment sprang from designers’ inductively generated and now prototyped response to a gap they recognized between performance measurement capabilities required by contemporary enterprises and those offered by contemporary PMSs. This paper illustrates key concepts underlying AID, while a companion document, The Enterprise AID methodology: Application, draws from …