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An Econometric Approach For Modeling Population Change In Arkansas, David Alexandro Ramirez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This study models population in the state of Arkansas using a small econometric model, and is similar to a previous demographic model developed by Fullerton and Barraza de Anda (2008). The components of population change consist of births, deaths, and net migration. Births minus deaths equal natural increase, and population in the current period is population from the previous period plus natural increase plus net migration. Births and deaths are modeled as functions of a one period autoregressive lag as well as national trends. Net migration is also modeled as a one period lag of itself in addition to relative …