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Full-Text Articles in Environmental Policy
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
Uncertainty, Technical Change, And Policy Models, Erin Baker, Leon Clarke, Jeffrey Keisler, Ekundayo Shittu
Jeffrey Keisler
Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we show the importance of including both uncertainties when modeling for policy analysis. We then develop an approach for incorporating uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We define and demonstrate a protocol for bottom-up expert assessments about prospects for technologies. We then describe a method for using such assessments to derive a probability distribution over future abatement curves, and to estimate random return functions for technological investment in different areas. Finally, we show how these analytic results could be used in a variety of energy-economic models …
China's "Green Leap Forward" Toward Global Environmental Leadership, Robert V. Percival
China's "Green Leap Forward" Toward Global Environmental Leadership, Robert V. Percival
Robert Percival
This article argues that China may be on the verge of a “Green Leap Forward” that could make it a global environmental leader. This article argues that two principal forces have contributed to this development. First, Chinese officials now realize that a global shift away from fossil fuels will create enormous business opportunities on a global scale. Chinese companies are now making enormous strides in the development of green technology, such as solar power, wind energy, and electric cars, with the active assistance of the Chinese government. Second, realizing that climate change severely threatens China, and stung by the criticism …