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Full-Text Articles in Economic Policy
Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Establish A New House Price Stress Test, James R. Follain, Seth H. Giertz
Using Monte Carlo Simulations To Establish A New House Price Stress Test, James R. Follain, Seth H. Giertz
Department of Economics: Faculty Publications
The focus of this paper is on the house price stress test (termed ALMO) that was designed to assess the fiscal strength of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and, if necessary, to trigger remedial action in order to avert a crisis. We assess whether the ALMO stress test was an adequate representation of an extremely weak housing market, given the best available information leading up to the Great Recession. A Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to estimate the severity of low probability events (i.e., severe house price declines). We illustrate the complexity and subjective nature of the process used …
The Disability Screening Process And The Labor Market Behavior Of Accepted And Rejected Applicants: Evidence From The Health And Retirement Study, Seth H. Giertz, Jeffrey D. Kubik
The Disability Screening Process And The Labor Market Behavior Of Accepted And Rejected Applicants: Evidence From The Health And Retirement Study, Seth H. Giertz, Jeffrey D. Kubik
Department of Economics: Faculty Publications
This paper uses Social Security earnings records linked to data from the Health and Retirement Study to examine the labor market behavior of rejected and accepted disability applicants prior to their application. We find that rejected applicants have substantially lower earnings and labor force participation rates during the decade prior to application than beneficiaries. Also, we find some evidence of a divergence between these groups, with rejected applicants leaving the labor force at a faster rate than beneficiaries as their application date approaches. One interpretation of these results is that the disability screening process on average separates those who are …