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Rethinking The Relevance Of Self-Deterrence, Jeffrey H. Michaels

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars.

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Spring 2024 issue of Parameters. Readers will note a few differences in the formatting for this issue: we are now using endnotes instead of footnotes to facilitate switching from pdf to html via Adobe's Liquid App; also, readers will be able to click on each endnote number to view the full endnote and then switch back to the text to resume reading. Please drop us a note to let us know how you like the changes. More are coming!

Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

The Post-Expansionist Personality Profile Of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Aubrey Immelman, Abby Goff

Psychology Faculty Publications

This report presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality and leadership style of Vladimir Putin, president of the Russian Federation, from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data about Putin were collected from biographical sources and media reports and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, and DSM-5.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed on the basis of interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC and Millon Index of Personality Styles …

China Containment In East Asia: Preventative Or Provocative?, Rachel Solsman

Helm's School of Government Conference - American Revival: Citizenship & Virtue

Since the end of World War II, the United States has developed and maintained its strategic alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan, and has worked to contain China through bolstering its deterrence strategy. However, after a century of humiliation, China is modernizing its military capabilities, improving in trade, and increasing political cohesion to become a regional hegemon. In light of these changes to the international order, the United States must re-evaluate its East Asian alliances and its current military and economic deterrence strategy against China. This paper will discuss the history of these alliances, the rise of …

Us Strategic Culture, Homeland Ballistic Missile Defense, And Mutual Vulnerability, Jacob T. Blank

MSU Graduate Theses

Strategic scholars have long understood the indispensable linkage between culture and security policymaking. By shaping the perceptions through which decision-makers formulate security policy, strategic culture analysis adds vital context to the perilously difficult science of understanding and predicting state security outputs. One area where this analytical framework fails to generate the expected result is American missile defense policy. Salient themes of US strategic culture, including an optimistic and problem-solving mindset, positive role of machines, and ahistorical exceptionalism, are reflected in the American way of war – a technologically driven, leadership casualty averse, moralistic, apolitical, and firepower focused enterprise. These factors …

How Competition Undermines Deterrence, Kayse Jansen

MSU Graduate Theses

The re-emergence of great power competition has brought with it a U.S. government-wide initiative to reclaim and strengthen advantage and influence across all elements of national power. Competition is considered necessary to secure American interests and protect the existing liberal international order, as well as uphold deterrence by enhancing the nation’s ability to impose costs and deny benefits. This view, however, neglects a critical factor in deterrence: the cost of restraint, which reflects the acceptability of the status quo. Paradoxically, the more successful the nation is at “competition,” the less likely it may be in important deterrence situations. Successful diplomatic …

The Personality Profile And Leadership Style Of China’S President Xi Jinping, Aubrey Immelman, Yunyiyi Chen

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality and leadership style of China’s president, Xi Jinping, from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data about Xi were collected from biographical sources and media reports and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, and DSM-5.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed on the basis of interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC and Millon Index of Personality Styles manuals. Xi’s primary …

The Leadership Style Of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, Aubrey Immelman

Psychology Faculty Publications

This working paper presents a personality-based analysis of the likely leadership style of Chairman Kim Jong-un, supreme leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, in negotiations with U.S. president Donald Trump, inferred from the results of indirect personality assessments conducted 2013–2018 from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Kim’s primary personality patterns were found to be Outgoing/gregarious and Dominant/controlling, supplemented by secondary Accommodating/cooperative, Ambitious/confident, and Dauntless/adventurous features.

Outgoing individuals are dramatic attention‑getters who thrive on being the center of social events, go out of their way to be popular with others, and are confident in their social skills; …

The Personality Profile Of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, Aubrey Immelman

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality of Kim Jong-un, supreme leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conducted 2013–2018 from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data about Kim was collected from open-source media reports and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with DSM–III–R, DSM–IV, and DSM–5.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed in accordance with interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC and Millon Index of Personality Styles …

Offensive Cyber: Superiority Or Stuck In Legal Hurdles?, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

In recent years, offensive cyber operations have attracted significant interest from the non-Defense Department academic legal community, prompting numerous articles seeking to create a legal theory for cyber conflicts. Naturally, cyber operations should be used in an ethical way, but the hurdles generated by the legal community are staggering. At a time when the United States has already lost an estimated $4 trillion in intellectual property as a result of foreign cyber espionage, not to mention the loss of military advantage, focusing on what the United States cannot do in cyberspace only hinders efforts to defend the country from future …

Europe In A ‘Nato Light’ World - Building Affordable And Credible Defense For The Eu, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther

Jan Kallberg

From an outsider’s perspective, the Common Security and Defense Policy and the efforts of the European Defense Agency are insufficient to provide Europe with the defense it will require in coming decades. While the European Union—particularly the members of the European Monetary Union—struggle to solve prolonged fiscal challenges, viable European security alternatives to an American-dominated security architecture are conspicuously absent from the documents and discussions that are coming from the European Council and at a time when the United States is engaged in an Asia-Pacific pivot. This is not to say that no thought has been given to defense issues. …

Myth Of Indian Nuke Doctrine (Cpc Journal, No.1038, Us Air Force, Alabama, Shams Uz Zaman Mr.

Mr. Shams uz Zaman

No abstract provided.

Analysis - Toward A New American Military., Adam Lowther, Jan Kallberg

Jan Kallberg

In releasing the United States Department of Defense’s (DoD) Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense and Defense Budget Priorities and Choices in January 2012, President Barack Obama and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta offered a rationale for the administration’s reductions in defense spending. By stating that the shift in strategic direction is an effort to “put our fiscal house in order” and a response to the 2011 Budget Control Act, which requires DoD to reduce spending by $487 billion between fiscal years 2012 and 2021, the United States’ NATO partners in Europe were given considerable reason for …

The Return Of Dr. Strangelove, Jan Kallberg, Adam Lowther

Jan Kallberg

With the prospect of sequestration looming, the United States may find itself increasingly rely ing on nuclear and cy ber deterrence as an affordable means of guaranteeing national sovereignty and preventing major conflict between the U.S. and potential adversaries in the Asia-Pacific. While earlier defense planning and acquisition were based on economic conditions that no longer ex ist, Congress’s options to balance the budget by cutting defense spending are politically palatable because far fewer American are “defense v oters” relative to “social welfare voters,” according to a number of recent public opinion surveys. The simple fact is China’s rise has …

Pivotal Deterrence And United States Security Policy In The Taiwan Strait, Charles D. Pasquale

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation presents a model of pivotal deterrence—a version the author loosely terms holistic pivotal deterrence—based on the model originally presented in Crawford's Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace, and applies it to a regional case study of U.S. security policy in the Taiwan Strait; placing particular emphasis on the crisis junctures of 1954-55, 1958, 1962, and 1995-96. By contrasting this with other models of deterrence, it provides an alternative perspective with which to consider the empirical data on the United States-China-Taiwan relationship and developments in the Strait. By viewing the data through this lens, this …

Trends. Commentary On “The Influence Component Of Counterterrorism: A Systems Approach, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This Trends article discusses the guiding principles for and challenges to a conceptual framework for deterring terrorism against the United States and its interests as presented by Paul Davis and Brian Jenkins in the Spring 2003 issue of Rand Review.

Trends. Nuclear Weapons Redux, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article discusses rationales for reducing the number of nuclear weapons worldwide.

Trends. Head Count And Nuclear War: What To Believe, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

This article discusses three significant conundrums that arise in planning to deter nuclear war: 1. decapitation of the strength of the opposition; 2. lack of clear ontological validity for nuclear weapons-related language; and 3. the simultaneity of deterrence and provocation in one action.