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Detecting Structure In Activity Sequences: Exploring The Hot Hand Phenomenon, Taleri Lynn Hammack

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Can humans discriminate whether strings of events (e.g., shooting success in basketball) were generated by a random or constrained process (e.g., hot and cold streaks)? Conventional wisdom suggests that humans are not good at this discrimination. Following from Cooper, Hammack, Lemasters, and Flach (2014), a series of Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical experiment examined the abilities of both humans and statistical tests (Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test and 1/f) to detect specific constraints that are representative of plausible factors that might influence the performance of athletes (e.g., learning, non-stationary task constraints). Using a performance/success dependent learning constraint that was calibrated to …