Cognitive Psychology Commons^™

Hindsight Bias In Clinical Decision Making, Amanda Beltrani

Student Theses

The tendency for an individual to believe that a specific event, in hindsight, was more predictable than it was in foresight is known as hindsight bias. This phenomenon has been demonstrated in the psychological literature across a variety of samples, methodologies, and predictions for decades. The current study used a sample of 95 mental health professionals to explore the impact of advanced outcome knowledge on the decision making process. Participants reviewed a hypothetical risk assessment in the form of a hospital chart and then responded to a series of questions, using only their clinical judgment. Analyses revealed that evaluators who …