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2011

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Full-Text Articles in Models and Methods

Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette Dec 2011

Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette

Cari Bourette

Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock …


From Nixon’S War On Drugs To Obama’S Drug Policies Today: Presidential Progress In Addressing Racial Injustices And Disparities, Cigdem V. Sirin Nov 2011

From Nixon’S War On Drugs To Obama’S Drug Policies Today: Presidential Progress In Addressing Racial Injustices And Disparities, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study investigates presidential progress in addressing racial injustices and disparities within the context of the war on drugs. I argue that racial inequalities emanating from the war on drugs have been largely overlooked and at times aggravated by previous administrations. Although there have been some improvements in this regard since President Obama took office, more extensive policy reforms are needed to better remedy such inequalities. I also argue that the viability of a progressive presidency for racial justice vis-à-vis U.S. drug policies depends not only on the personal agenda of the president but also on a supportive public as …


A Sociologia Política Brasileira Em Análise: Quatro Visões Sobre O Funcionamento Administrativo Do Estado Novo, Adriano Codato Oct 2011

A Sociologia Política Brasileira Em Análise: Quatro Visões Sobre O Funcionamento Administrativo Do Estado Novo, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

Within Brazilian Political Sociology, there are four different views on state Administrative Departments, apparatuses created by the Vargas dictatorship in 1939 as a complement to the system of federal interventors. On the basis of these interpretations, there are also four different ways of looking at the New State regime (1937-1945) itself. Views on administrative departments diverge both according to observers' convictions regarding the way the authoritarian political system functions and according to which of these agencies' roles (political, economic, bureaucratic) the analyst considers as most salient. In this essay I analyze existing interpretations on this issue; I emphasize that which …


Unanswered Questions Of A Minority People In International Law: A Comparative Study Between Southern Cameroons & South Sudan, Bernard Sama Mr Oct 2011

Unanswered Questions Of A Minority People In International Law: A Comparative Study Between Southern Cameroons & South Sudan, Bernard Sama Mr

Bernard Sama

The month July of 2011 marked the birth of another nation in the World. The distressful journey of a minority people under the watchful eyes of the international community finally paid off with a new nation called the South Sudan . As I watched the South Sudanese celebrate independence on 9 July 2011, I was filled with joy as though they have finally landed. On a promising note, I read the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon saying “[t]ogether, we welcome the Republic of South Sudan to the community of nations. Together, we affirm our commitment to helping it meet its …


Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem V. Sirin Aug 2011

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …


Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem V. Sirin, José D. Villalobos May 2011

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem V. Sirin, José D. Villalobos

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …


Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz May 2011

Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz

Justin Schwartz

This short piece is a contribution to The Encylopedia of Global Justice (ed. D.K. Chatterjee) (forthcoming from Springer Verlag May 2011). It summarizes the state of reserach on the problem for collective choice discovered by Kenneth Arrow in his Impossibility Theorem. In 1951 Arrow proved that a set of four or five (depending on how one counts them) minimal constraints that seem constitutive of democratic decisionmaking, including nondictatorship and rational consistency, are mutually incompatible. This created the burgeoning field of Social Choice Theory. I explain the problem in nontechnical terms, explore its implications especially for global justice, and review the …


Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem V. Sirin Apr 2011

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …


Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem V. Sirin Apr 2011

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …


Territorios Digitales: El Camino A La Sociedad De La Innovación. El Caso De San Luis, Argentina, Lucas Jolías, Susana Finquelievich, Alejandro Prince Mar 2011

Territorios Digitales: El Camino A La Sociedad De La Innovación. El Caso De San Luis, Argentina, Lucas Jolías, Susana Finquelievich, Alejandro Prince

Lucas Jolías

El artículo describe los resultados de una investigación de campo que estudia los alcances del programa San Luis Digital en Argentina, originado por el gobierno provincial y en el que los municipios de la Provincia han participado activamente. Se hace foco sobre los procesos de innovación social basados en la utilización de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TIC) promovidos por la Gobierno administración provincial a través de acuerdos con otros actores sociales. La metodología utilizada para la investigación fue principalmente la de meta research, es decir la integración de modelos, teorías, datos e información provenientes de diversas …


Etapas De La Inclusión Digital En Argentina: Difusión Y Adopción De Tic, Lucas Jolías, Alejandro Prince Mar 2011

Etapas De La Inclusión Digital En Argentina: Difusión Y Adopción De Tic, Lucas Jolías, Alejandro Prince

Lucas Jolías

La inclusión digital es uno de los principales desafíos de los gobiernos en los próximos años, pero para cumplir con éste objetivo se debe prestar atención a las particularidades de la adopción de TIC en nuestra región, contemplando las diferencias socioeconómicas, culturales y motivacionales. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la inclusión digital en América Latina y el Caribe, con particular atención al caso de Argentina. Las hipótesis más importantes pueden resumirse en dos: primero, que los niveles de inclusión digital en la actualidad son en gran medida producto del mercado y la capacidad económica y de consumo de …


Political Information And Emotions In Ethnic Conflict Interventions, Cigdem V. Sirin, José D. Villalobos, Nehemia Geva Jan 2011

Political Information And Emotions In Ethnic Conflict Interventions, Cigdem V. Sirin, José D. Villalobos, Nehemia Geva

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study explores the effects of political information and anger on the public’s cognitive processing and foreign policy preferences concerning third-party interventions in ethnic conflict. Our study employs an experimental design wherein we manipulate policy-specific information by generating ad hoc political information related to ethnic conflict. The statistical methods of analysis are logistic regression and analysis of covariance. The results demonstrate that both political information and anger have a significant impact on an individual’s cognitive processing and policy preferences regarding ethnic conflict interventions. Specifically, political information increases one’s proclivity to choose non-military policy options, whereas anger instigates support for aggressive …


El Desarrollo De La Ciencia Política En México. Una Mirada A Través De Los Estudios Sobre El Estado De La Disiciplina, J. R. Joel Flores-Mariscal Jan 2011

El Desarrollo De La Ciencia Política En México. Una Mirada A Través De Los Estudios Sobre El Estado De La Disiciplina, J. R. Joel Flores-Mariscal

J. R. Joel Flores-Mariscal

Se presenta una revisión de los títulos publicados hasta 2009 que han analizado la situación de la ciencia política en México o algún aspecto de ésta. Destaca el crecimiento y la diversificación de autores e instituciones, de las revistas publicadas y de los enfoques y temas recurrentes. Hasta fines de los años noventa se ven autores recurrentes y momentos de auge en las publicaciones asociados a coyunturas como congresos, procesos de modificación a planes de estudio, etc., Después de estos años hay la emergencia de nuevos autores y enfoques de estudio, y que el desarrollo de estos trabajos en su …


Bureaucracy And The U.S. Response To Mass Atrocity, Gregory Brazeal Jan 2011

Bureaucracy And The U.S. Response To Mass Atrocity, Gregory Brazeal

Gregory Brazeal

The U.S. response to mass atrocity has followed a predictable pattern of disbelief, rationalization, evasion, and retrospective expressions of regret. The pattern is consistent enough that we should be skeptical of chalking up the United States’ failures solely to a shifting array of isolated historical contingencies, from post-Vietnam fatigue in the case of the Khmer Rouge to the Clinton administration’s recoil against humanitarian interventions after Somalia. It is implausible to suggest that the United States would have acted to mitigate or end mass atrocities but for the specific historical contingencies that happen to accompany each outbreak of violence. This essay …


How Much Does A Belief Cost?: Revisiting The Marketplace Of Ideas, Gregory Brazeal Jan 2011

How Much Does A Belief Cost?: Revisiting The Marketplace Of Ideas, Gregory Brazeal

Gregory Brazeal

Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. is often credited with creating the metaphor of “the marketplace of ideas,” though he did not use the exact phrase and his argument for free speech was not based on distinctively economic reasoning. Truly economic investigations of the marketplace of ideas have progressed in step with developments and trends in the law and economics literature. These investigations have tended to be one-sided, with writers focusing primarily either on the production of ideas (for example, Posner) or their consumption (for example, behavioral law and economics), without considering in depth how producers and consumers interact. This may …


Intervenção Estatal, Centralização Política E Reforma Burocrática: O Significado Dos Departamentos Administrativos No Estado Novo, Adriano Codato Jan 2011

Intervenção Estatal, Centralização Política E Reforma Burocrática: O Significado Dos Departamentos Administrativos No Estado Novo, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

The purpose of this paper is to expose and explain a precise moment of the Brazilian political-institutional evolution. It explores the conflicts that are at the origin of choice and implementation of a new politico-administrative system in post-1930. The paper explores the origins, design and objectives that drove the invention of a bureaucratic apparatus which, together with the Federal Interventor, not only controls the regional political elites, but also contributed to the organization of state power on a national basis, cooperating to facilitate state capacity: the Administrative Department. I analyze the political context, legal history and the institutional innovations of …


O Espaço Político Segundo Marx, Adriano Codato Jan 2011

O Espaço Político Segundo Marx, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

This articles estates that Marx s historical works allows us to uphold that the political dimension is neither a field (of social struggles for strategic positions) nor a system (of functionally integrated institutions) and not even a juridical-political structure (apprehensible through its class effects in the social world). The political dimension of society may be conceived, by classical Marxism, as a form whose properties are similar to that of the commodity form. Consequently, practical politics can neither be apprehended nor analyzed as a social appearance, which makes the expression political scene very unsuitable to describe the way Marx understands the …


Reseña De "Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need For Predictive Models", De Rein Taagepera, Javier Martín Reyes Jan 2011

Reseña De "Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need For Predictive Models", De Rein Taagepera, Javier Martín Reyes

Javier Martín Reyes

Review of Taagepera, Rein, "Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models", Oxford University Press, New York, 2008, 254 pages.


Central And Eastern Europe: Europeanization And Westernization Through Accession Conditionality, Michael K. Marriott Jan 2011

Central And Eastern Europe: Europeanization And Westernization Through Accession Conditionality, Michael K. Marriott

Michael K Marriott

With 27 member states, the EU is not a body in and of itself, but rather is a central authority constituted of its member states. In order to create a reasonable level of coherence within the Union, the national politics of each member state must undergo a process of Europeanization so as to find a common ground for the members to work together. This leads to the logical question: ‘to what extent are national politics Europeanized?’ Although important to consider, this question is overly broad for the purposes of this paper. A more appropriate question, one that exists within the …


Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz Jan 2011

Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz

Justin Schwartz

This short nontechnical article reviews the Arrow Impossibility Theorem and its implications for rational democratic decisionmaking. In the 1950s, economist Kenneth J. Arrow proved that no method for producing a unique social choice involving at least three choices and three actors could satisfy four seemingly obvious constraints that are practically constitutive of democratic decisionmaking. Any such method must violate such a constraint and risks leading to disturbingly irrational results such and Condorcet cycling. I explain the theorem in plain, nonmathematical language, and discuss the history, range, and prospects of avoiding what seems like a fundamental theoretical challenge to the possibility …


¿Gobernadores Eternos? Un Análisis Comparativo De Las Reelecciones En Argentina Y Brasil, Lucas Jolías, Augusto Reina Jan 2011

¿Gobernadores Eternos? Un Análisis Comparativo De Las Reelecciones En Argentina Y Brasil, Lucas Jolías, Augusto Reina

Lucas Jolías

Cuando se plantea el tema de las reelecciones a nivel provincial emerge una idea directa y sencilla: esto es que las reelecciones son instituciones forzadas por los gobernadores para enquistarse en el poder. Y que, de forma consecuente, estos mecanismos permiten que ciertas oligarquías políticas provinciales se mantengan en el poder a su gusto. Pero, tal como queremos plasmar en el presente artículo, achacarle tantas cosas a la reelección es sobreestimar los efectos de la institución. Plantear el tema en términos tan simples pone de lado otros procesos políticos que facilitan la estabilidad de las elites en la cima del …


Un Modelo Analítico De Ciudades Del Conocimiento En América Latina, Lucas Jolías, Alejandro Prince, Susana Finquelievich Jan 2011

Un Modelo Analítico De Ciudades Del Conocimiento En América Latina, Lucas Jolías, Alejandro Prince, Susana Finquelievich

Lucas Jolías

El análisis de las Ciudades Digitales ha ocupado en los últimos años un lugar importante en la academia, aunque eso no significa que exista un corpus conceptual y teórico que nos ayude a comprender mejor el tema. Las actuales coyunturas mundiales exigen una renovación en los estudios y prácticas sobre la interfase entre redes electrónicas y ciudades. Surgen nuevos conceptos, nuevas nociones y las ciudades comienzan a ser vistas como medios innovadores, tanto para sus ciudadanos como en relación a las regiones circundantes y a sus países de pertenencia. El objetivo de este artículo es brindar un modelo de análisis …


Judging Women, Stephen J. Choi, G. Mitu Gulati, Mirya R. Holman, Eric A. Posner Jan 2011

Judging Women, Stephen J. Choi, G. Mitu Gulati, Mirya R. Holman, Eric A. Posner

Mirya R Holman

Judge Sonia Sotomayor’s assertion that female judges might be better than male judges has generated accusations of sexism and potential bias. An equally controversial claim is that male judges are better than female judges because the latter have benefited from affirmative action. These claims are susceptible to empirical analysis. Primarily using a dataset of all the state high court judges in 1998-2000, we estimate three measures of judicial output: opinion production, outside state citations, and co-partisan disagreements. For many of our tests, we fail to find significant gender effects on judicial performance. Where we do find significant gender effects for …


Gender And Regime Politics In U.S. Cities, Mirya R. Holman Jan 2011

Gender And Regime Politics In U.S. Cities, Mirya R. Holman

Mirya R Holman

The scholarship on urban politics often focuses on the political economy provided by regimes, or long-term coalitions between local politicians and private actors like the business community. Notably absent from the regime scholarship is any substantial investigation of the role that urban regimes play in the promotion of the interests of women living in urban areas. A comparison of the priorities of urban regimes with the interests of women in politics suggests substantial conflicts. The implications for women serving in urban governance are explored, as are the consequences for urban politics, women in politics, and democracy.


Evaluating Political And Environmental Behavior In The Face Of A Green Crisis: An Experimental Analysis, Mirya R. Holman, Travis G. Coan Jan 2011

Evaluating Political And Environmental Behavior In The Face Of A Green Crisis: An Experimental Analysis, Mirya R. Holman, Travis G. Coan

Mirya R Holman

Incidents such as the Japanese Nuclear Meltdowns and the British Petroleum oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico remind us that environmental issues can be central to activating political activity and influencing political opinions. While the literature suggesting a relationship between environmental risk and action is extensive, few scholars directly examine the relationship between perceived environmental threat and political behavior, and even fewer adopt research designs appropriate for making causal inferences. Building on a growing literature in political psychology that examines the effects of crises and emotions on political opinions, we examine the relationship between environmental threat and political behavior …


Gender And Power In American Cities: Investigations Of The Effect Of Mayoral Gender On Deliberation, Representation, And Policymaking In U.S. Cities, Mirya R. Holman Jan 2011

Gender And Power In American Cities: Investigations Of The Effect Of Mayoral Gender On Deliberation, Representation, And Policymaking In U.S. Cities, Mirya R. Holman

Mirya R Holman

The representation of historically marginalized groups in the democratic policy process serves many purposes, including introducing new and differing perspectives to the policymaking process, opening the policymaking process up to disenfranchised groups, and changing the deliberative process of urban policymaking. In this paper, I investigate the effect of gender on policy priorities and policy outcomes of mayors in U.S. cities. Using a combination of interview data and coded city council minutes, I examine the effect of mayoral gender on the discussion of issues of importance to female constituents, the nature of deliberation in city councils, and the engagement of the …


Cancun Climate Negotiations, Prof. Elizabeth Burleson Jan 2011

Cancun Climate Negotiations, Prof. Elizabeth Burleson

Prof. Elizabeth Burleson

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, held from November 29 to December 11, 2010, in Cancún, Mexico, relaunched the United Nation's multilateral facilitation role.


“Hacer Fila En Bogotá" (To Do The Line In Bogotá), Andrés Henao Castro, Mauricio García Villegas Dec 2010

“Hacer Fila En Bogotá" (To Do The Line In Bogotá), Andrés Henao Castro, Mauricio García Villegas

Andrés Fabián Henao-Castro

No abstract provided.


The Mordida´S Game: How Institutions Incentive Corruption, Rodolfo Sarsfield Dec 2010

The Mordida´S Game: How Institutions Incentive Corruption, Rodolfo Sarsfield

Rodolfo Sarsfield

The study at micro level about in which way individuals’ micro-motives and behaviors influence on an effective rule of law is a deficit in the literature. The analysis of the microfoundations of the law ´s empire is absent in the field of legal studies. In this way, most explanations presented to elucidate the performance of the rule of law has been presented at macro level, emulating properties of countries, such as wealth (Barro 2000; Joireman 2004), ethnic fragmentation (Hayo and Voigt 2005; Hansson and Olsson 2006), religion (Barro 2000; Hayo and Voigt 2005), British legal or colonial tradition (Blake and …