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From Black And White To Left And Right: Race, Perception Of Candidates' Ideologies, And Voting Behavior In U.S. House Elections, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
From Black And White To Left And Right: Race, Perception Of Candidates' Ideologies, And Voting Behavior In U.S. House Elections, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
While there is a strong scholarly consensus that race continues to play a central role in American politics, research on the effects of the race of candidates on electoral behavior have been decidedly mixed. Using American National Election Studies data and a non-linear systems of equations approach to estimation, I show that race-based misperceptions of candidates' ideologies have a significant indirect impact on voting decisions in elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. The indirect effects of race on voting behavior outweigh any direct effects of racial prejudice by a large margin. More specifically, the results suggest that white citizens …
Racial Stereotypes And Perceptions Of Representatives' Ideologies In U.S. House Elections, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Racial Stereotypes And Perceptions Of Representatives' Ideologies In U.S. House Elections, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
I examine the hypothesis that race affects citizens' perceptions of candidates' ideologies. In the past, systematic tests of this hypothesis have relied almost entirely on data drawn from experiments. While experimental research designs have contributed much to the analysis of political stereotypes and heuristics, the extent to which experimental research on this hypothesis is externally valid is open to question. Moreover, experimental approaches are not well-suited to estimating the magnitude of the effects of stereotypes in real-world situations, especially in the context of complex political phenomena such as election campaigns. In this paper, I develop a statistical model of the …
Religion And Perceptions Of Candidates' Ideologies In U.S. House Elections, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Religion And Perceptions Of Candidates' Ideologies In U.S. House Elections, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Using data from the American National Election Studies, Poole-Rosenthal DW-Nominate scores, and data on the religious affiliations of members of the United States House of Representatives, I show that religion has important independent effects on the evaluation of candidates' ideologies. The results suggest that candidates affiliated with evangelical Christianity will tend to be seen as more conservative than ideologically similar candidates from mainline Protestant denominations. Jewish candidates, in contrast, will tend to be seen as more liberal than ideologically similar mainline Protestants. Additionally, the use of religion-based stereotypes varies with frequency of church attendance. These findings attest to the external …
Barking Up The Wrong Tree: Why Bo Didn't Fetch Many Votes For Barack Obama In 2012, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier, Daniel C. Lewis
Barking Up The Wrong Tree: Why Bo Didn't Fetch Many Votes For Barack Obama In 2012, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier, Daniel C. Lewis
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
In “The Dog that Didn't Bark: The Role of Canines in the 2008 Campaign,” Diana Mutz (2010) argues that dog ownership made voters significantly less likely to vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We examine this claim further. While President Obama has owned a dog since shortly after his 2008 election, we argue that Bo’s presence will not do much to improve his owner’s chances of being reelected in 2012. Rather, the apparent significance of dog ownership is due largely to key variables being omitted from the analysis. Using the same data, we show that Obama didn’t …