Models and Methods Commons^™

Définition De Guerre Civile.Pdf, Rachid Elaïdi

Rachid ELAÏDI

Revolutionary Coalition Strength And Collective Failure As Determinants Of Status Reallocation, H. Andrew Michener, Edward J. Lawler

Edward J Lawler

This experiment investigated the effects of collective performance and coalition strength on the redistribution of status prerogatives in triads. A status hierarchy was established within triads, such that one person held higher control status and the two others held lower status. Each group performed an ambiguous, decision-making task over two trials. Collective performance (i.e., success vs failure) was manipulated via bogus feedback regarding the group’s performance, while coalition strength was manipulated by varying the extent to which the two low-status members, acting together as a revolutionary coalition, could damage the outcomes received by the high-status member. Results indicate a collective-performance …

The Impact Of Status Differences On Coalitional Agreements: An Experimental Study, Edward J. Lawler

Edward J Lawler

This experiment investigated the impact of status differences between subordinates and face-to-face coalition negotiations on insurgent coalitional action. The effects of these variables were examined in stratified groups, where a leader established inequitable pay-rates, and subordinates could coalesce and destroy a portion of the leader’s outcomes. The results showed that status differences (as opposed to status similarity) undermined the sense of common interests between subordinates and reduced the severity of coalitional action against the leader. Face-to-face negotiations engendered a more cautious approach to coalition negotiations and also reduced the severity of insurgent action. The results suggest that status differences pose …

Cooptation And Coalition Mobilization, Edward J. Lawler, George A. Youngs Jr., Michael D. Lesh

Edward J Lawler

The question addressed by this research was, “When structural circumstances make revolutionary action likely, under what conditions will a cooptation strategy prevent subordinate revolts?” Experimental procedures established a group status hierarchy consisting of a leader and two subordinates. Groups earned collective outcomes, and the leader usurped an inequitable portion of these outcomes. In this context, the first experiment shows that a cooptation strategy (i.e., offer of a promotion to one of two subordinates) inhibits subordinate revolts. Two additional experiments indicate that the cooptation strategy is most effective (a) if the offer (strategy) provides the target of cooptation a source of …

Endorsement Of Formal Leaders: An Integrative Model, H. Andrew Michener, Edward J. Lawler

Edward J Lawler

This experiment develops an integrative, path-analytic model for the endorsement accorded formal leaders. The model contains four independent variables reflecting aspects of group structure (i.e., group success-failure, the payoff distribution, the degree of support by others members for the leader, and the vulnerability of the leader). Also included are two intervening variables reflecting perceptual processes (attributed competence and attributed fairness), and one dependent variable (endorsement). The results indicate that endorsement is greater when the group's success is high, when the payoff distribution is flat rather than hierarchical, and when the leader is not vulnerable to removal from office. Other support …

Examining The Distinct Effects Of Emotive Triggers On Public Reactions To International Terrorism, Cigdem V. Sirin, Nehemia Geva

Cigdem V. Sirin

Voice Without Say: Why Capital-Managed Firms Aren’T (Genuinely) Participatory, Justin Schwartz

Justin Schwartz

Why are most capitalist enterprises of any size organized as authoritarian bureaucracies rather than incorporating genuine employee participation that would give the workers real authority? Even firms with employee participation programs leave virtually all decision-making power in the hands of management. The standard answer is that hierarchy is more economically efficient than any sort of genuine participation, so that participatory firms would be less productive and lose out to more traditional competitors. This answer is indefensible. After surveying the history, legal status, and varieties of employee participation, I examine and reject as question-begging the argument that the rarity of genuine …

The Coevolution Of Networks And Political Attitudes, David Lazer, Brian Rubineau, Carol Chetkovich, Nancy Katz, Michael Neblo

Brian Rubineau

How do attitudes and social affiliations co-evolve? A long stream of research has focused on the relationship between attitudes and social affiliations. However, in most of this research the causal relationship between views and affiliations is difficult to discern definitively: Do people influence each other’s views so that they converge over time or do they primarily affiliate (by choice or happenstance) with those of similar views? Here we use longitudinal attitudinal and whole network data collected at critical times (notably, at the inception of the system) to identify robustly the determinants of attitudes and affiliations. We find significant conformity tendencies: …

Socially-Mediated Internet Surveys (Smis): Recruiting Participants For Online Experiments, Erin C. Cassese, Leonie Huddy, Todd K. Hartman, Lilliana Mason, Christopher R. Weber

Todd K. Hartman

Socially-Mediated Internet Surveys (SMIS) is a new method to obtain web-based, adult samples for experimental political science research. SMIS targets central figures in online social networks to help recruit participants, who visit their websites. We present data from six samples collected using the SMIS method and compare them to those gathered by other sampling approaches such as Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. While not representative of the general adult population, our SMIS samples are significantly more diverse than undergraduate convenience samples, not just demographically but also politically. Moreover, we also discuss how the SMIS approach can be used to target special subpopulations …

Analyzing The Determinants Of Group Identity Among Alevis In Turkey: A National Survey Study, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study systematically explores the factors that affect collective identity associations within the Alevi community in Turkey by employing the social identity approach and examining survey data collected through fieldwork. The results show that Kurdish Alevis express lower levels of attachment to their religious identity as compared to Turkish Alevis. The results also indicate that personal experiences of discrimination tend to increase one's prioritization of Alevi identity. Last, no significant differences are observed regarding group identity between Alevis who reside in urban areas and those who live in rural areas.

Public Support For Military Interventions Across Levels Of Political Information And Stages Of Intervention: The Case Of The Iraq War, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study examines the effect of political information levels and intervention stages on the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions by analyzing survey data pertaining to the 2003 military intervention in Iraq. The results show that before and immediately after the launch of the intervention, politically uninformed individuals expressed higher support for the war compared to politically informed ones. However, as the intervention proceeded and casualties were incurred, higher rates of decrease in support were observed among the politically uninformed. Politically informed individuals, on the other hand, demonstrated more stable levels of support throughout the course of …

Webs Of Faith As A Source Of Reasonable Disagreement, Gregory Brazeal

Gregory Brazeal

Contemporary political theorists and philosophers of epistemology and religion have often drawn attention to the problem of reasonable disagreement. The idea that deliberators may reasonably persist in a disagreement even under ideal deliberative conditions and even over the long term poses a challenge to the common assumption that rationality should lead to consensus. This essay proposes a previously unrecognized source of reasonable disagreement, based on the notion that an individual's beliefs are rationally related to one another in a fabric of sentences or web of beliefs. The essay argues that an individual's beliefs may not form a single, seamless web, …

Environmental Protection, U.S. Influence On Latin American Policies, Cigdem Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

No abstract provided.

Examining The Role Of Identity In Negotiation Decision Making: The Case Of Cyprus, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study examines the effects of ethnic and social identities on negotiation decision making in the context of the Cyprus conflict. I conduct a theory-driven case study of the 1959 Zurich-London agreements on Cyprus, analyzing the positions of Turkey, Greece, Britain, and the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities during the negotiation process. I find that even in the presence of adversarial ethnic ties, decision makers who have a shared (and salient) social identity are more likely to employ collective-serving decision strategies and seek evenhanded solutions that will not jeopardize their mutual interests. In contrast, decision makers with severe ethnic fragmentation …

Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette

Cari Bourette

Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock …

From Nixon’S War On Drugs To Obama’S Drug Policies Today: Presidential Progress In Addressing Racial Injustices And Disparities, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study investigates presidential progress in addressing racial injustices and disparities within the context of the war on drugs. I argue that racial inequalities emanating from the war on drugs have been largely overlooked and at times aggravated by previous administrations. Although there have been some improvements in this regard since President Obama took office, more extensive policy reforms are needed to better remedy such inequalities. I also argue that the viability of a progressive presidency for racial justice vis-à-vis U.S. drug policies depends not only on the personal agenda of the president but also on a supportive public as …

Unanswered Questions Of A Minority People In International Law: A Comparative Study Between Southern Cameroons & South Sudan, Bernard Sama Mr

Bernard Sama

The month July of 2011 marked the birth of another nation in the World. The distressful journey of a minority people under the watchful eyes of the international community finally paid off with a new nation called the South Sudan . As I watched the South Sudanese celebrate independence on 9 July 2011, I was filled with joy as though they have finally landed. On a promising note, I read the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon saying “[t]ogether, we welcome the Republic of South Sudan to the community of nations. Together, we affirm our commitment to helping it meet its …

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem V. Sirin, José D. Villalobos

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem V. Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …

Political Information And Emotions In Ethnic Conflict Interventions, Cigdem V. Sirin, José D. Villalobos, Nehemia Geva

Cigdem V. Sirin

This study explores the effects of political information and anger on the public’s cognitive processing and foreign policy preferences concerning third-party interventions in ethnic conflict. Our study employs an experimental design wherein we manipulate policy-specific information by generating ad hoc political information related to ethnic conflict. The statistical methods of analysis are logistic regression and analysis of covariance. The results demonstrate that both political information and anger have a significant impact on an individual’s cognitive processing and policy preferences regarding ethnic conflict interventions. Specifically, political information increases one’s proclivity to choose non-military policy options, whereas anger instigates support for aggressive …

The Coevolution Of Networks And Political Attitudes, David Lazer, Brian Rubineau, Carol Chetkovich, Nancy Katz, Michael Neblo

David Lazer

How do attitudes and social affiliations co-evolve? A long stream of research has focused on the relationship between attitudes and social affiliations. However, in most of this research the causal relationship between views and affiliations is difficult to discern definitively: Do people influence each other’s views so that they converge over time or do they primarily affiliate (by choice or happenstance) with those of similar views? Here we use longitudinal attitudinal and whole network data collected at critical times (notably, at the inception of the system) to identify robustly the determinants of attitudes and affiliations. We find significant conformity tendencies: …

Earthquake Anxiety May Be Indicator Of Future Trouble, Cari Bourette

Cari Bourette

No abstract provided.

Identity Politics, Cigdem Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

No abstract provided.

If The Large Wta-Wtp Gap For Public Goods Is Real (And There Are Good Reasons To Think So) Conventional Welfare Measures Are Simply Incorrect, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

A robust finding in economics is that decision-makers often exhibit a much smaller dollar willingness to pay (WTP) for an item than the minimum amount that they claim to be willing to accept (WTA) to part with it. The spread between these two numbers is particularly large for public goods, raising serious public policy concerns regarding which number, if either, is appropriate for valuing such goods. A traditional utility maximizing model is presented here that predicts–as both measures are currently calculated–that WTA will exceed WTP, quite plausibly by a substantial amount for public goods. Moreover, it is shown here that …

Interest In Politics, Cigdem Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

No abstract provided.

Marital Status And Voting Behavior, Cigdem Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

No abstract provided.

Relativism, Reflective Equilibrium, And Justice, Justin Schwartz

Justin Schwartz

THIS PAPER IS THE CO-WINNER OF THE FRED BERGER PRIZE IN PHILOSOPHY OF LAW FOR THE 1999 AMERICAN PHILOSOPHICAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE BEST PUBLISHED PAPER IN THE PREVIOUS TWO YEARS.

The conflict between liberal legal theory and critical legal studies (CLS) is often framed as a matter of whether there is a theory of justice that the law should embody which all rational people could or must accept. In a divided society, the CLS critique of this view is overwhelming: there is no such justice that can command universal assent. But the liberal critique of CLS, that it degenerates into …

The Logic Of Protest Action, Herman L. Boschken

Herman L. Boschken

In recent years, there has been a noticeable growth in political protest involving groups of widely diverging interests. The rising incidence of protest seems paradoxical to the apparent growth of affluence in society. This paper attempts to resolve this paradox by contending that most forms of protest are a function of the degree of separation between (a) the values and goals of those controlling collective decision processes and (b) the diversity of interests and aspirations in segmented society at large. Through protest action, disenfranchised groups are able to impose "external" costs on "establishment" regimes that lead to alteration of the …