Models and Methods Commons^™

Conflict Emergence And Escalation In Interactive International Dyads, David Todd Kinsella, Bruce M. Russett

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examine whether the conditions affecting initial expressions of hostility are similar to those affecting militarized disputes. Analyzing dyadic interactions during the years 1951–1992, we estimate a model to take into account selection effects and check it against another allowing conjunctive causation. Both provide close approximations to theoretical models of the conflict process and yield similar results. We confirm Kant’s belief that all states are subject to the realist conditions of interstate competition that makes disputes likely, but that liberal influences, if present, can constrain the escalation of such disputes to war. Several influences on the conflict process have nonmonotonic …