Models and Methods Commons^™

Assessing The Theory Of Demographics As Destiny & Patterns Of Bloc Voting In The United States, Nathan Benjamin Susman

Senior Projects Spring 2016

By 2044, it is predicted that America will be a majority-minority country-- that is, a plurality of minorities will begin to outnumber white people. Some suggest that this demographic trend suggests the demise of the Republican party, thanks to their historical paucity of support amongst minority communities. This has been deemed the "Demographics as Destiny" theory. This paper argues that the theory of "Demographics as Destiny is based on four assumptions:

1) that the population of minority communities will continue to grow by leaps and bounds;

2) that minorities will soon register to vote and cast ballots in proportion to …