Models and Methods Commons^™

Running Comes Before Winning: Explaining The Gender Differential In State Legislatures, Marissa Piccolo

University Scholar Projects

What factors influence the likelihood that a woman runs for, wins, and holds political office across the country? Is it easier to explain why a woman runs in, than that she ultimately represents, a certain district? I compare a series of state-level and district-level independent variables and relate them to two different dependent variables: that a woman ran for a district seat, and that a woman represents a district. I explore what, and how much, political geography and contextual factors can explain. My preliminary findings show that it is easier to explain the probability that a woman runs, than that …

Assessing The Theory Of Demographics As Destiny & Patterns Of Bloc Voting In The United States, Nathan Benjamin Susman

Senior Projects Spring 2016

By 2044, it is predicted that America will be a majority-minority country-- that is, a plurality of minorities will begin to outnumber white people. Some suggest that this demographic trend suggests the demise of the Republican party, thanks to their historical paucity of support amongst minority communities. This has been deemed the "Demographics as Destiny" theory. This paper argues that the theory of "Demographics as Destiny is based on four assumptions:

1) that the population of minority communities will continue to grow by leaps and bounds;

2) that minorities will soon register to vote and cast ballots in proportion to …