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Articles 1 - 4 of 4
Full-Text Articles in Models and Methods
Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Enviromental Projects: A Plethora Of Biases Understating Net Benefits, Philip E. Graves
Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Enviromental Projects: A Plethora Of Biases Understating Net Benefits, Philip E. Graves
PHILIP E GRAVES
There are many reasons to suspect that benefit-cost analysis applied to environmental policies will result in policy decisions that will reject those environmental policies. The important question, of course, is whether those rejections are based on proper science. The present paper explores sources of bias in the methods used to evaluate environmental policy in the United States, although most of the arguments translate immediately to decision-making in other countries. There are some “big picture” considerations that have gone unrecognized, and there are numerous more minor, yet cumulatively important, technical details that point to potentially large biases against acceptance on benefit-cost …
Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette
Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette
Cari Bourette
Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock …
Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz
Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz
Justin Schwartz
This short nontechnical article reviews the Arrow Impossibility Theorem and its implications for rational democratic decisionmaking. In the 1950s, economist Kenneth J. Arrow proved that no method for producing a unique social choice involving at least three choices and three actors could satisfy four seemingly obvious constraints that are practically constitutive of democratic decisionmaking. Any such method must violate such a constraint and risks leading to disturbingly irrational results such and Condorcet cycling. I explain the theorem in plain, nonmathematical language, and discuss the history, range, and prospects of avoiding what seems like a fundamental theoretical challenge to the possibility …
Earthquake Anxiety May Be Indicator Of Future Trouble, Cari Bourette
Earthquake Anxiety May Be Indicator Of Future Trouble, Cari Bourette
Cari Bourette
No abstract provided.