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Articles 1 - 7 of 7
Full-Text Articles in Models and Methods
Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette
Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette
Cari Bourette
Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock …
Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz
Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz
Justin Schwartz
This short piece is a contribution to The Encylopedia of Global Justice (ed. D.K. Chatterjee) (forthcoming from Springer Verlag May 2011). It summarizes the state of reserach on the problem for collective choice discovered by Kenneth Arrow in his Impossibility Theorem. In 1951 Arrow proved that a set of four or five (depending on how one counts them) minimal constraints that seem constitutive of democratic decisionmaking, including nondictatorship and rational consistency, are mutually incompatible. This created the burgeoning field of Social Choice Theory. I explain the problem in nontechnical terms, explore its implications especially for global justice, and review the …
El Desarrollo De La Ciencia Política En México. Una Mirada A Través De Los Estudios Sobre El Estado De La Disiciplina, J. R. Joel Flores-Mariscal
El Desarrollo De La Ciencia Política En México. Una Mirada A Través De Los Estudios Sobre El Estado De La Disiciplina, J. R. Joel Flores-Mariscal
J. R. Joel Flores-Mariscal
Se presenta una revisión de los títulos publicados hasta 2009 que han analizado la situación de la ciencia política en México o algún aspecto de ésta. Destaca el crecimiento y la diversificación de autores e instituciones, de las revistas publicadas y de los enfoques y temas recurrentes. Hasta fines de los años noventa se ven autores recurrentes y momentos de auge en las publicaciones asociados a coyunturas como congresos, procesos de modificación a planes de estudio, etc., Después de estos años hay la emergencia de nuevos autores y enfoques de estudio, y que el desarrollo de estos trabajos en su …
How Much Does A Belief Cost?: Revisiting The Marketplace Of Ideas, Gregory Brazeal
How Much Does A Belief Cost?: Revisiting The Marketplace Of Ideas, Gregory Brazeal
Gregory Brazeal
Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. is often credited with creating the metaphor of “the marketplace of ideas,” though he did not use the exact phrase and his argument for free speech was not based on distinctively economic reasoning. Truly economic investigations of the marketplace of ideas have progressed in step with developments and trends in the law and economics literature. These investigations have tended to be one-sided, with writers focusing primarily either on the production of ideas (for example, Posner) or their consumption (for example, behavioral law and economics), without considering in depth how producers and consumers interact. This may …
Reseña De "Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need For Predictive Models", De Rein Taagepera, Javier Martín Reyes
Reseña De "Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need For Predictive Models", De Rein Taagepera, Javier Martín Reyes
Javier Martín Reyes
Review of Taagepera, Rein, "Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models", Oxford University Press, New York, 2008, 254 pages.
Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz
Collective Choice, Justin Schwartz
Justin Schwartz
This short nontechnical article reviews the Arrow Impossibility Theorem and its implications for rational democratic decisionmaking. In the 1950s, economist Kenneth J. Arrow proved that no method for producing a unique social choice involving at least three choices and three actors could satisfy four seemingly obvious constraints that are practically constitutive of democratic decisionmaking. Any such method must violate such a constraint and risks leading to disturbingly irrational results such and Condorcet cycling. I explain the theorem in plain, nonmathematical language, and discuss the history, range, and prospects of avoiding what seems like a fundamental theoretical challenge to the possibility …
Cancun Climate Negotiations, Prof. Elizabeth Burleson
Cancun Climate Negotiations, Prof. Elizabeth Burleson
Prof. Elizabeth Burleson
The United Nations Climate Change Conference, held from November 29 to December 11, 2010, in Cancún, Mexico, relaunched the United Nation's multilateral facilitation role.