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Articles 1 - 30 of 324
Full-Text Articles in Political Science
Raven Sentry: Employing Ai For Indications And Warnings In Afghanistan, Thomas W. Spahr
Raven Sentry: Employing Ai For Indications And Warnings In Afghanistan, Thomas W. Spahr
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
This article examines Raven Sentry, a project that employed artificial intelligence to provide advance warning of insurgent attacks in Afghanistan. During 2019 and 2020, the Resolute Support Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (J2) benefited from a command culture open to innovation, the urgency created by the US drawdown, and a uniquely talented group of personnel that, aided by commercial sector experts, built an AI system that helped predict attacks. The war’s end cut Raven Sentry short, but the experience provides important lessons on AI and the conditions necessary for successful innovation.
From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii
From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Welcome to the Summer 2024 issue of Parameters. We open this issue with a special “In Memoriam” by General Charles A. Flynn, Commander US Army Pacific, honoring the life and legacies of our director and consummate colleague, Carol V. Evans. We dedicate this issue to her. General Flynn’s memoriam is followed by an In Focus commentary on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. We then feature three forums covering the Russia-Ukraine War, the Middle East, and Professional Development. This issue also contains special essays on the role of professional writing, the US Army War College’s Civil-Military Relations Center, …
The Combat Path: Sustaining Mental Readiness In Ukrainian Soldiers, Oleh Hukovskyy, James C. West, Joshua C. Morganstein, Eugene F. Augusterfer, David M. Benedek, Oleg Boyko, Robert J. Ursano, Amy B. Adler
The Combat Path: Sustaining Mental Readiness In Ukrainian Soldiers, Oleh Hukovskyy, James C. West, Joshua C. Morganstein, Eugene F. Augusterfer, David M. Benedek, Oleg Boyko, Robert J. Ursano, Amy B. Adler
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
In Ukraine, soldiers’ psychological resilience is of paramount concern. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have developed a new intervention, Combat Path Debriefing, designed to address combat stress and promote unit readiness for soldiers returning to combat. This article outlines the components of Combat Path Debriefing and discusses how it is rooted in principles of combat and operational stress control and the unique characteristics of Ukrainian military life. This perspective offers US and allied leaders real-world experience that can inform future efforts to support soldiers’ mental health and combat performance.
The Dynamics Of Us Retrenchment In The Middle East, Paul K. Macdonald, Joseph M. Parent
The Dynamics Of Us Retrenchment In The Middle East, Paul K. Macdonald, Joseph M. Parent
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
This article argues that conditions favor American retrenchment from the Middle East because the United States can shift burdens to capable states in the region, there are few areas where US commitments are interdependent, and the local conquest calculus favors defense. Forward military deployments do not positively influence potential threats in the Middle East, and maintaining deployments there will detract from meeting challenges from China. Through comparisons to prior cases of great-power ordinal decline, this article puts America’s modest decline in historical perspective and finds that retrenchment policies will likely have positive consequences.
Exploring The Nexus Of Military And Society At A 50-Year Milestone, Patricia M. Shields
Exploring The Nexus Of Military And Society At A 50-Year Milestone, Patricia M. Shields
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
There is an ongoing dependence and tension between the military and the society it protects. This article examines the relatively new “military and society” field using the 50-year anniversary of the journal Armed Forces & Society as a focal point. This dynamic field is influenced by world events, cultural trends, and politics. Civil-military relations is at the heart of the discourse. An international and interdisciplinary journal, Armed Forces & Society reflects the changing nature of the field over the last 50 years. I have edited the journal since 2001 and bring this experience to the discussion.
Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press
Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
No abstract provided.
Too Little, Too Late: The Icc And The Politics Of Prosecutorial Procrastination In Georgia, Marco Bocchese
Too Little, Too Late: The Icc And The Politics Of Prosecutorial Procrastination In Georgia, Marco Bocchese
Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal
In August 2008, just days after belligerent parties had reached a ceasefire agreement, the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) announced the opening of a preliminary examination into the situation of Georgia. Yet, it was only in March 2022 that International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan applied for arrest warrants in relation to three individuals from Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia. That said, how can such prolonged inaction be accounted for? How much blame does the OTP carry for it? And how did ICC-state relations develop over time? This paper conducts a within-case analysis of the situation of …
Using Digital Twins To Protect Biomanufacturing From Cyberattacks, Brenden Fraser-Hevlin, Alec W. Schuler, B. Arda Gozen, Bernard J. Van Wie
Using Digital Twins To Protect Biomanufacturing From Cyberattacks, Brenden Fraser-Hevlin, Alec W. Schuler, B. Arda Gozen, Bernard J. Van Wie
Military Cyber Affairs
Understanding of the intersection of cyber vulnerabilities and bioprocess regulation is critical with the rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning in manufacturing. We detail a case study in which we model cyberattacks on network-mediated signals from a novel bioreactor, where it is important to control medium feed rates to maintain cell proliferation. We use a digital twin counterpart reactor to compare glucose and oxygen sensor signals from the bioreactor to predictions from a kinetic growth model, allowing discernment of faulty sensors from hacked signals. Our results demonstrate a successful biomanufacturing cyberattack detection system based on fundamental process control principles.
Characterizing Advanced Persistent Threats Through The Lens Of Cyber Attack Flows, Logan Zeien, Caleb Chang, Ltc Ekzhin Ear, Dr. Shouhuai Xu
Characterizing Advanced Persistent Threats Through The Lens Of Cyber Attack Flows, Logan Zeien, Caleb Chang, Ltc Ekzhin Ear, Dr. Shouhuai Xu
Military Cyber Affairs
Effective cyber defense must build upon a deep understanding of real-world cyberattacks to guide the design and deployment of appropriate defensive measures against current and future attacks. In this abridged paper (of which the full paper is available online), we present important concepts for understanding Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs), our methodology to characterize APTs through the lens of attack flows, and a detailed case study of APT28 that demonstrates our method’s viability to draw useful insights. This paper makes three technical contributions. First, we propose a novel method of constructing attack flows to describe APTs. This abstraction allows technical audiences, …
Commercial Enablers Of China’S Cyber-Intelligence And Information Operations, Ethan Mansour, Victor Mukora
Commercial Enablers Of China’S Cyber-Intelligence And Information Operations, Ethan Mansour, Victor Mukora
Military Cyber Affairs
In a globally commercialized information environment, China uses evolving commercial enabler networks to position and project its goals. They do this through cyber, intelligence, and information operations. This paper breaks down the types of commercial enablers and how they are used operationally. It will also address the CCP's strategy to gather and influence foreign and domestic populations throughout cyberspace. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for mitigating the influence of PRC commercial enablers.
China's Use Of Nontraditional Strategic Landpower In Asia, Sheena Chestnut Greitens
China's Use Of Nontraditional Strategic Landpower In Asia, Sheena Chestnut Greitens
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
This article argues that the People’s Republic of China uses its police and internal security forces as a nontraditional means of projecting strategic Landpower in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia. Instead of limiting analysis of China’s power projection to military forces, this article employs new data on Chinese police engagements abroad to fill a gap in our understanding of the operating environment in Asia. Policymakers will gain an understanding of how these activities enhance China’s presence, partnerships, and influence across the region to inform the development of recommendations for a more effective response.
Strategy As Problem-Solving, Andrew Carr
Strategy As Problem-Solving, Andrew Carr
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
This article proposes a new definition of strategy as problem-solving that challenges the focus on goals and assumptions of order within many post–Cold War approaches to strategy. It argues that the military needs strategy to diagnose the complex problems of the twenty-first century before they can be solved. Inspired by practitioners such as Andrew Marshall and George F. Kennan, this new definition clarifies what strategists do and offers a logic for distinguishing the use of the term strategy. Practitioners will also find problem-solving tools and pedagogies they can adopt today.
Rethinking The Relevance Of Self-Deterrence, Jeffrey H. Michaels
Rethinking The Relevance Of Self-Deterrence, Jeffrey H. Michaels
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars.
From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii
From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Welcome to the Spring 2024 issue of Parameters. Readers will note a few differences in the formatting for this issue: we are now using endnotes instead of footnotes to facilitate switching from pdf to html via Adobe's Liquid App; also, readers will be able to click on each endnote number to view the full endnote and then switch back to the text to resume reading. Please drop us a note to let us know how you like the changes. More are coming!
Us-Taiwan Relations And The Future Of The Liberal Order, Christina Lai
Us-Taiwan Relations And The Future Of The Liberal Order, Christina Lai
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the best chance the United States has to preserve the liberal international order in Asia and improve its security relative to China. This study offers a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to US-led international institutions and the Asian regional order and reduce conflict risk. It concludes with recommendations for the United States and its partners to integrate Taiwan into multilateral institutions in Asia.
International Law, Self-Defense, And The Israel-Hamas Conflict, Eric A. Heinze
International Law, Self-Defense, And The Israel-Hamas Conflict, Eric A. Heinze
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
This article examines the international law of self-defense as it applies to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict to determine whether the October 2023 attacks by Hamas against Israel can be interpreted under Article 51 of the UN Charter as an “armed attack” that gives Israel the right to use military force in self-defense against non-state actors. It situates the conflict within ongoing legal and political debates, shows how this conflict fits into a changing global reality where the most dangerous security threats do not exclusively emanate from other states and concludes that Israel’s resort to force in the current conflict appears …
Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press
Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
No abstract provided.
Parameters Winter 2023-24 Full Issue, Usawc Press
Parameters Winter 2023-24 Full Issue, Usawc Press
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
No abstract provided.
Introduction To The China Landpower Studies Center, Richard D. Butler
Introduction To The China Landpower Studies Center, Richard D. Butler
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Welcome to the Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC). This will be a regular feature in Parameters that will discuss critical military and security issues related to China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It will also highlight the Center’s research agenda and key activities. My objective in this first installment is to outline the purpose, organization, capabilities, research agenda, and expected products of the Center.
From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii
From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 issue of Parameters. This issue opens with two In Focus commentaries offering observations from the Russia-Ukraine War, two forums addressing deterrence and strategic influence, and the inaugural Director’s Corner for the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC).
The Chechen Kadyrovtsy’S Coercive Violence In Ukraine, Wilson A. Jones
The Chechen Kadyrovtsy’S Coercive Violence In Ukraine, Wilson A. Jones
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Russia pioneered exploiting civilian inequalities to maximize military effectiveness in Chechnya, contributing to the Kadyrovtsy blocking detachments observed in Ukraine. Kadyrovtsy, pro-Russian Chechens, are drawn from a unique political order enabling this specialized military role. Military inequality literature typically ignores how minority-ethnic forces often serve in specialized combat roles. Understanding the Chechen Wars, the Kadyrov regime, and living standards in Russia helps explain these minority-ethnic blocking detachments in Ukraine. Analysis of this vital section of Putin’s regime offers actionable recommendations for Western actors to undermine Russian military efforts and identifies the potential risks of those actions.
Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press
Contributor Guidelines, Usawc Press
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
No abstract provided.
Urban Resistance To Occupation: An Underestimated Element Of Land Warfare, Kevin D. Stringer, Jelle J. H. Hooiveld
Urban Resistance To Occupation: An Underestimated Element Of Land Warfare, Kevin D. Stringer, Jelle J. H. Hooiveld
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
With the world trending toward urbanization, and Russia and China acting aggressively toward Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, the conduct of irregular warfare in built-up environments—specifically, urban resistance to occupation—merits greater study. The authors’ Dutch-language and primary source research on the Netherlands’ World War II urban resistance to German occupation makes this article unique. It provides deeper insights into the occupation experiences of a highly urbanized, densely populated country in which clandestine underground and auxiliary elements played paramount roles in resistance efforts for most of the occupation period. It also illustrates the feasibility of overt, guerrilla-based activity in urban environments during …
Us-Russia Foreign Policy: Confronting Russia’S Geographic Anxieties, Caitlin P. Irby
Us-Russia Foreign Policy: Confronting Russia’S Geographic Anxieties, Caitlin P. Irby
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
The United States must place Russia’s focus on geographic concerns at the center of future strategy development to build a constructive relationship with Russia and achieve US regional goals. This article analyzes Russia’s geography and historical impact on Russian foreign policy, outlines Moscow’s current foreign policy goals, and highlights underlying concerns for US policymakers and military practitioners. By pursuing policies that support Russian goals of economic integration, mitigation of demographic concerns, and security of national borders, the United States can set the foundation for productive engagement on critical issues.
The Impact Of Antarctic Treaty Challenges On The Us Military, Ryan J. Bridley, Kevin W. Matthews
The Impact Of Antarctic Treaty Challenges On The Us Military, Ryan J. Bridley, Kevin W. Matthews
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
While the Antarctic Treaty of 1961 largely prevented conflicts on the continent, growing challenges to the treaty system could affect the United States and the global community. Through historical documents and press reports, this article examines ice deterioration, unreported and unregulated fishing, resource extraction preparation, hostilities between treaty members, and the roles of China and Russia in the region. It provides recommendations for policymakers and military strategists on how the United States can maintain global security and treaty interests—and the potential request for intervention—within the guidelines of the National Security Strategy.
From The Acting Editor In Chief, Conrad C. Crane
From The Acting Editor In Chief, Conrad C. Crane
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Welcome to the Autumn 2023 issue of Parameters. This issue includes two In Focus special commentaries, a Strategic Challenges forum, a Historical Studies forum, and the SRAD Director’s Corner.
A Historical Perspective On Today’S Recruiting Crisis, Brian Mcallister Linn
A Historical Perspective On Today’S Recruiting Crisis, Brian Mcallister Linn
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
This article analyzes the US Army’s successive recruiting crises, identifying their consistent patterns and the efforts to resolve them, and makes three provocative arguments. First, there is a long-standing institutional tension between recruiting personnel for the combat arms and technical and administrative specialists. Second, many of today’s talent management problems were first identified in a 1907 General Staff report and reiterated in subsequent studies. Third, the Army has pursued innovative recruitment strategies, but much of their success depended on factors outside the service’s control. The essay concludes with four history-based recruiting lessons and an affirmation that the 2019 Army People …
Parameters Autumn 2023, Usawc Press
Parameters Autumn 2023, Usawc Press
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
No abstract provided.
A Call To Action: Lessons From Ukraine For The Future Force, Katie Crombe, John A. Nagl
A Call To Action: Lessons From Ukraine For The Future Force, Katie Crombe, John A. Nagl
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Fifty years ago, the US Army faced a strategic inflection point after a failed counterinsurgency effort in Vietnam. In response to lessons learned from the Yom Kippur War, the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command was created to reorient thinking and doctrine around the conventional Soviet threat. Today’s Army must embrace the Russo-Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to reorient the force into one as forward-thinking and formidable as the Army that won Operation Desert Storm. This article suggests changes the Army should make to enable success in multidomain large-scale combat operations at today’s strategic inflection point.
The Strategic Importance Of Taiwan To The United States And Its Allies: Part Two – Policy Since The Start Of The Russia-Ukraine War, Luke P. Bellocchi
The Strategic Importance Of Taiwan To The United States And Its Allies: Part Two – Policy Since The Start Of The Russia-Ukraine War, Luke P. Bellocchi
The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters
Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and indeed has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically important. Part two reviews the development of US and allied policy statements on Taiwan—from the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to the present—and provides policymakers and military strategists with incremental but realistic recommendations for understanding the current dynamic of the region and fashioning responses to deter further authoritarian aggression.