Physical and Environmental Geography Commons^™

Can Significant Trends Be Detected In Surface Air Temperature And Precipitation Over South America In Recent Decades?, Daniel De Barros Soares, Huikyo Lee, Paul C. Loikith, Armineh Barkhordarian, Carlos R. Mechoso

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Trends in near-surface air temperature and precipitation over South America are examined for the periods 1975–2004 and 1955–2004, respectively, using multiple observational and climate model data sets. The results for observed near-surface air temperature show an overall warming trend over much of the continent, with the largest magnitudes over central Brazil. These observed trends are found to be statistically significant using pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as the baseline to estimate natural climate variability. The observed trends are compared with those obtained in natural-only CMIP5 simulations, in which only natural forcings …