Physical and Environmental Geography Commons^™

Projecting Vegetation Condition And Fire Risk In Southern California, Westin K. Guthrie

Geography ETDs

In the western US, relationships between fire, vegetation, climate, and urban areas are dynamic and evolving. This work used a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, informed by future climate scenarios and projections of urban expansion to understand wildfire interactions within projected Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) areas. This simulation showed that in both 2050 and 2100 +93% of the WUI in southern California experienced fire. Future work needs to be done in parametrizing forest biomass to ensure the validity of projections. Additionally, increasing each climate scenario model's replicates will create more accurate projections.