Physical and Environmental Geography Commons^™

Modeled Red Spruce Distribution Response To Climatic Change In Monongahela National Forest, James Michael Stanton

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

In Monongahela National Forest of West Virginia, red spruce grows in high-elevation island ecosystems that are particularly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. The ecological niche modeling application Maxent was used to project the distribution response of red spruce to climatic change for the purposes of conservation planning. Red spruce distribution data was acquired from the United States Forest Service. Three sets of nineteen bioclimatic variables, corresponding to present, 2050, and 2080 conditions, were derived from 1961-1990 monthly temperature and precipitation means and the IPCC A2 emissions scenario of HadCM3. The modeling revealed rapidly diminishing red spruce habitat suitability from …