Labor Economics Commons^™

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Index: December 1, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer and business confidence surged in Nebraska during November. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) rose to 106.2 in November from 95.1 in October. The November value is well above the neutral level of 100.0. Likewise, the Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) rose from 102.7 in October to 114.1 in November, which is also well above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 32 percent of respondents. Nearly as many businesses mentioned workforce issues. In particular, the availability and quality of labor was mentioned as …

A Comparative Analysis Of Unemployment Insurance Financing Methods, Wayne Vroman, Elaine Maag, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Woodbury

External Papers and Reports

No abstract provided.

Nebraska Snaps Back, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will fully participate in stronger U.S. economic growth. While the farming sector will continue to face challenges, farm income will rise slightly during the forecast period, and consequently, will no longer detract from Nebraska economic growth. Nebraska will match U.S. job growth, with job growth particularly strong in services, construction, and retail trade. The agricultural processing sector also will expand employment. Projected growth rates for 2018 through 2020 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 1.1% to 1.2% per year, matching the national job growth rate in 2019 and 2020. Non-farm income will grow between 3.9% and …

Are Teacher Pensions "Hazardous" For Schools?, Patten Priestley Mahler

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

I use a detailed panel of data and a unique modeling specification to explore how public schoolteachers respond to the incentives embedded in North Carolina’s retirement system. Like most public-sector retirement plans, North Carolina’s teacher pension implicitly encourages teachers to continue working until they are eligible for their pension benefits, and then leave soon afterward. I find that teachers with higher levels of quality, as measured by a teacher’s value-added to her students’ achievement test scores, are more responsive to the “pull” of teacher pensions. Younger teachers, those with higher salaries, and nonwhite teachers are also more likely to stay …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 22, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.24% during October of 2017. The decrease in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that economic growth will slow in Nebraska during the second quarter of 2018. The fall in the indicator was due to an decline in building permits for single-family homes and manufacturing hours-worked. There also was an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar in October. The increase in the value of the dollar is challenging for Nebraska exporters. In terms of positive components, there was a …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: November 3, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer confidence remained weak during October while business confidence remained strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 95.1 in October, below the neutral value of 100.0. By contrast, the Nebraska business confidence remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 102.7 in October, below the September level of 105.2 but above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 31 percent of business respondents. Businesses also faced growing competition in both the labor and product markets. The availability and quality of …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 25, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 1.86% during September of 2017. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests solid economic growth in Nebraska during the first quarter of 2018. The rise in the indicator was due to an increase in building permits for single-family homes and growth in manufacturing hours-worked. There also was a decline in the value of the dollar in September, which is positive for Nebraska exporters. Finally, there were positive business expectations. Businesses responding to the September Survey of Nebraska Business reported …

New Hires Quality Index, Brad J. Hershbein

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: October 6, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer confidence tumbled during September while business confidence held steady. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell to 93.5 in September, well below the reading of 100.9 in August and the neutral value of 100.0. Consumer confidence is now weak in Nebraska. By contrast, the Nebraska business confidence remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 105.2 in September, slightly above the August value of 104.2, and well above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 37 percent of business respondents. Businesses …

Minimum Houses For Minimum Wages: Are Tiny Houses A Solution For Low-Wage Workers?, Edward Sauve

Social Justice and Community Engagement

No abstract provided.

Charles Ballard Interview, Justin Carinci

External Papers and Reports

Professor Charles Ballard of Michigan State University delivered the lecture “The Fall and Rise of Income Equality in the United States” Sept. 27, 2017 as part of the Werner Sichel Lecture Series at Western Michigan University. Ballard detailed the “Great Convergence” of income equality in the United States that grew out of policies of the 1930s and 1940s and a “Great Divergence” of inequality starting about 1980. Ballard called this income gap, which is now greater than during the Gilded Age, “the largest economic phenomenon of our lifetimes.”

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 20, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.38% during August of 2017. The decline in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that the Nebraska economy will grow slowly during the first few months of 2018. The drop in the indicator was primarily due to a decline in manufacturing hours-worked during August. Building permits for single-family homes and airline passenger enplanements also dropped slightly. There were two positive components of the LEI-N. Businesses responding to the August Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: September 1, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer and business confidence fell during August. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 100.9 in August, below the reading of 102.5 from July. Notably, the CCI-N remained above the neutral value of 100.0 during August. The outlook of Nebraska businesses remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 104.2 in August, close to the value of 105.1 during July, and well above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 35 percent of business respondents. Businesses also faced growing competition in …

Network Effects On Labor Contracts Of Internal Migrants In China- A Spatial Autoregressive Model, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Xiangjun Ma

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies the fact that 37 percent of the internal migrants in China do not sign a labor contract with their employers, as revealed in a nationwide survey. These contract-free jobs pay lower hourly wages, require longer weekly work hours, and provide less insurance or on-the-job training than regular jobs with contracts. We find that the co-villager networks play an important role in a migrant’s decision on whether to accept such insecure and irregular jobs. By employing a comprehensive nationwide survey in 2011 in the spatial autoregressive logit model, we show that the common behavior of not signing contracts …

Evaluating Public Employment Programs With Field Experiments: A Survey Of American Evidence, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Research in the 1970s based on observational data provided evidence consistent with predictions from economic theory that paying unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to involuntarily jobless workers prolongs unemployment. However, some scholars also reported estimates that the additional time spent in subsidized job search was productive. That is, UI receipt tended to raise reemployment wages after work search among the unemployed. A series of field experiments in the 1980s investigated positive incentives to overcome the work disincentive effects of UI. These were followed by experiments in the 1990s that evaluated the effects of restrictions on UI eligibility through stronger work search …

Erica Groshen Interview, Justin Carinci

External Papers and Reports

Interview with former Commissioner of Labor Statistics and head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica Groshen, from her presentation at the W.E. Upjohn Institute on August 29, 2017.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 23, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 0.56% during July of 2017. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that the Nebraska economy will grow through the first month of 2018. Four components of the indicator improved during July. Business expectations were solid and manufacturing hours grew. The value of the U.S. dollar continued its recent decline, a positive sign for Nebraska’s export-oriented businesses. Further, in a positive sign for the labor market, there also was a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance. In terms …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: August 4, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer and business confidence remained strong in Nebraska during July but fell from June levels. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 102.5 in July after a reading of 104.7 during June. Despite the decline of 2.2, the CCI-N remained above the neutral value of 100.0, indicating strong consumer confidence. The outlook of Nebraska businesses also was strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) fell to 105.1 in July from 109.2 in June. The BCI-N remained well above the neutral value in July, despite the 4.1 point decline, which indicates that business confidence is also strong in …

World Changers: Inspiring Cultural And Linguistic Excellence In Children, Parents And Teachers, Ana I. Berdecia Med, Caitlin Kosec Mpp, The John S. Watson Institute For Public Policy For Thomas Edison State College

Center for the Positive Development of Urban Children

The New Jersey Cultural Competency and English Language Learners Summer Institute and Mentoring Program hosted its 10th Anniversary, Three-Day Learning Institute, Aug. 23-25, 2016, with the theme, World Changers: Inspiring Cultural and Linguistic Excellence for Children, Parents and Teachers. After the Three- Day Learning Institute, classroom teachers were assigned a mentor who provided monthly supports to the classroom teachers in the adoption English language learners and cultural competency strategies with the goal of creating culturally and linguistic responsive classrooms. Twenty-three teachers from Trenton Public Schools were recruited and received 21 hours of training in best practices for engaging diverse …

Economic Shocks And Crime: Evidence From The Brazilian Trade Liberalization, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, Gabriel Ulyssea

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade-induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: July 7, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence rose sharply in Nebraska during June 2017 while business confidence remained very strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 100.4 in May but rose to 104.7 during June, which is well above the neutral value of 100.0. The outlook of Nebraska businesses remained very strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) fell to 109.2 in June, well above the neutral value and just below its May value of 110.2. Business confidence has been very strong in Nebraska throughout the first half of 2017. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer …

The Economic Impact Of Proposed New Facilities At Stonewall Resort, Eric Bowen, Christiadi, John Deskins

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

No abstract provided.

Workforce Investment Act In Western Kentucky: An Evaluation Of Program Service Outcomes, Matt S. Luckett

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Workforce development programs designed to provide individuals with the skills necessary to gain employment have been in existance for over 80 years. The Workforce Investment Act (WIA) was a federal workforce development program that ran from 2000 to 2014. The WIA provided three main programs: youth, adult, and dislocated worker. The focus of this research was to evaluate the individual services in the adult and dislocated worker programs in the Western Kentucky Workforce Investment Area and identify the most effective service in each program.

The adult and dislocated worker programs each offered three tiered services: core, intensive, and training. Individuals …

The Ncaa And The Rule Of Reason, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

All Faculty Scholarship

This brief essay considers the use of antitrust’s rule of reason in assessing challenges to rule making by the NCAA. In particular, it looks at the O’Bannon case, which involved challenges to NCAA rules limiting the compensation of student athletes under the NCAA rubric that protects the “amateur” status of collegiate athletes. Within that rubric, the Ninth Circuit got the right answer.

That outcome leads to a broader question, however: should the NCAA’s long held goal, frequently supported by the courts, of preserving athletic amateurism be jettisoned? Given the dual role that colleges play, that is a complex question, raising …

New Evidence On State Fiscal Multipliers: Implications For State Policies, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

When state and local governments engage in balanced budget changes in taxes and spending, what fiscal multiplier effects do such policies have on creating local jobs? Traditionally, the view has been that possible job-creation effects of such state and local “demand-side” policies are smaller, second-order effects. Such effects might be worthwhile to take into consideration when a state or local government balances its budget during a recession, but the effects were believed to be of modest magnitude, and not of major importance for more general state and local public policies. However, recent estimates of fiscal multiplier effects of state and …

Labor Unions And Occupational Safety: Event-Study Analysis Using Union Elections, Ling Li, Shawn Rohlin, Perry Singleton

Center for Policy Research

This study examines the dynamic relationship between union elections and occupational safety among manufacturing establishments. Data on union elections come from the National Labor Relations Board, and data on workplace inspections and accident case rates come from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. The results indicate that union elections improved occupational safety. First, workplace inspections trended upwards before the election, then decreased immediately after the election, due almost entirely to employee complaints. Second, accident case rates were relatively stable before the election, then trended downwards after the election, due to accidents involving days away from work, job restrictions, and job …

Demonstration And Evaluation Of The Short-Time Compensation Program In Iowa And Oregon: Final Report, Susan N. Houseman, Christopher J. O'Leary, Katharine G. Abraham, Frank Bennici, Susan Labin, Richard Sigman

External Papers and Reports

Short-time compensation (STC) is an optional program within some state unemployment insurance (UI) systems that allows employers experiencing a temporary reduction in business to lower the average hours of employees in lieu of laying them off. Employer use of the STC option has been low in states with STC programs. We conducted demonstrations in Iowa and Oregon to evaluate the effectiveness of several interventions designed to increase employer awareness and use of STC, including disseminating information about STC to specific employers (members of the “treatment” group) over a 12-month period. The main findings support the hypothesis that lack of awareness …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 21, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.51% during May of 2017. This is the second consecutive monthly decline in the LEI-N. The declines followed three months of rapid increase from January through March of 2017. Taken together, the LEI-N values imply a moderation in economic growth in Nebraska in late 2017 after strong growth midyear. Among the components of the indicator, business expectations were strong during May while the value of the U.S. dollar fell, which is a positive sign for Nebraska’s export-oriented businesses. However, manufacturing hours, building permits and airline passen

Veterans In Workforce Development: Participation And Labor Market Outcomes, Colleen Chrisinger

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper compares the employment status and earnings of veterans and nonveterans following their receipt of public workforce development services in Washington State during the years 2002–2012. It also describes workforce program participation patterns for veterans and nonveterans to determine if veterans have equal or prioritized access to key programs, where prioritization is required by law. Based on tabulations and propensity score weighted regressions using administrative data, the results indicate slightly lower levels of participation by veterans than nonveterans in two major workforce programs (Wagner-Peyser and the Workforce Investment Act Adult program), and high participation in veteran-specific programs (Disabled Veterans …

More Balanced Economic Growth, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

There has been a re-balancing of both global and domestic economic growth during 2017. Globally, growth is improving in Europe and China, yielding more balanced international growth. Within the United States, growth also has become more balanced across industries. As in past years, the service sector, supported by growth in employment and real wages, has grown steadily with increases in retail trade, business services, personal services and construction activity. However, in recent months, there also has been improved growth in the industrial sector, with a rebound in the energy sector, and more business investment in capital equipment. The result is …