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Full-Text Articles in International Economics
Relative Inflation-Forecast As Monetary Policy Target For Convergence To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Relative Inflation-Forecast As Monetary Policy Target For Convergence To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
A monetary policy framework based on targeting a relative inflation-forecast is proposed for the economies converging to the euro. Such strategy aims at containing the differentials between the domestic and the implicit monetary union inflation-forecasts. Hence, these differentials become a basis for setting an operational policy target. The proposed framework can be viewed as an extension of flexible inflation targeting that prioritizes low and stable inflation over the exchange rate stability. It is believed to be consistent with the Maastricht convergence criteria and can be implemented in concurrence with the exchange rate stability benchmark for the ERM2. Several empirical tests …
Monetary Policy And Inflation In The European Monetary Union – Perspectives And Lessons, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Monetary Policy And Inflation In The European Monetary Union – Perspectives And Lessons, Lucjan T. Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
The paper examines systemic changes in monetary policies in Europe that have played a pivotal role in containing inflation. It emphasizes the connection between the systemic evolution of monetary policies and the precepts of the original as well as the new generation policy models prescribed by the ‘Washington Consensus’. It further underscores the importance of key criteria of optimum currency area (labor mobility, trade openness, symmetric consumer preferences and political integration) for viability and further future enlargement of the euro area. For the candidates to the euro flexible inflation targeting policies that encompass the euro-convergence parameters are suggested.
Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast As Monetary Policy Framework For Adopting The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast As Monetary Policy Framework For Adopting The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative …
Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The Eu Accession Countries, Lucjan Orlowski
Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The Eu Accession Countries, Lucjan Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH …