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Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou
Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou
WCBT Faculty Publications
This paper investigates empirically the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Asian emerging stock markets using the Enders-Siklos (2001) momentum threshold autoregressive model. As explained in Bohl (2003), this non-linear time series technique can be used to analyze bubble driven run-ups in stock prices followed by a crash in a non- cointegration framework with asymmetric adjustment. This technique offers a more potent insight in the stock prices behavior than can possibly be obtained using conventional non-cointegration tests. The empirical findings for ten Asian emerging stock markets from 1993 to 2005 refute the bubble hypothesis.