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Full-Text Articles in International Economics
The Relevance Of Inflation And Exchange Rate Risk For Monetary Convergence To The Eurozone, Lucjan Orlowski
The Relevance Of Inflation And Exchange Rate Risk For Monetary Convergence To The Eurozone, Lucjan Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This study places a strong emphasis on the ability of Central European Countries to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums on their path of monetary convergence to the eurozone. A model of the nexus between both risk premiums is presented along with the recent evidence supporting well-coordinated interactions between these risk premiums for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The analysis implies that monetary policies based on direct inflation targeting are likely to contain these risk premiums in the candidate countries and can be effectively used during the remaining period of their preparations for entering the euro area.
Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The Eu Accession Countries, Lucjan Orlowski
Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The Eu Accession Countries, Lucjan Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH …
Monetary-Policy Targeting In The Central European Transition Economies, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Monetary-Policy Targeting In The Central European Transition Economies, Lucjan T. Orlowski
WCBT Faculty Publications
This chapter examines the monetary-policy-targeting systems, in the second half of the 1990s (until 1998), of three Central European EU-accession candidates—the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland--and advocates the potential benefits of applying a direct-inflation-targeting (DIT) system in them. For the purpose of the analysis presented here, DIT is defined as "a monetary policy framework that is based on the assumption of long-term price stability as the official policy goal and on the designation of the official inflation forecast as intermediate policy target" (Orlowski, 2000). Section 1 is a brief overview of monetary-targeting practices in the Czech Republic Hungary, and Poland. …