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Full-Text Articles in Income Distribution
Blessed Are The Peacemakers: The Future Burden Of Intrastate Conflict On Poverty, Jonathan D. Moyer
Blessed Are The Peacemakers: The Future Burden Of Intrastate Conflict On Poverty, Jonathan D. Moyer
Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures: Faculty Scholarship
Intrastate conflict generally undermines human development but its effect on global poverty across different income thresholds remains poorly understood. This paper analyzes how many people will live in poverty due to intrastate civil conflict in 2030, 2050, and 2070 using the International Futures model and shared socioeconomic pathways, forecasting 12 scenarios for 179 countries. A baseline conflict scenario leads to an additional 148.2 million (range: 50.7 to 186.0 million) people living in extreme poverty (Sustainable Development Goal.