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Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu Sep 2019

Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecastfinancial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive modelpreviously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric inthe sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified.The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed.Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finitesamples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against anumber of standard models, using data on S&P 500 …


Actuarial Modeling And Analysis Of The Hong Kong Life Annuity Scheme, Koon Shing Kwong, Wai-Sum Chan, Johnny Siu-Hang Li Mar 2019

Actuarial Modeling And Analysis Of The Hong Kong Life Annuity Scheme, Koon Shing Kwong, Wai-Sum Chan, Johnny Siu-Hang Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC) Limited, which was established in March 1997 and is wholly owned by the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, has a major mission to develop and provide different financial retirement instruments to Hong Kong residents to help address the income poverty of retirees. In June 2017, HKMC Annuity Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the HKMC was incorporated to implement a new life annuity scheme which would be launched by mid-2018 to cater for the needs of cash-rich Hong Kong old age residents. The objective of the scheme is to provide an additional …