Economic Theory Commons^™

Natural Selection Of Immune And Metabolic Genes Associated With Health In Two Lowland Bolivian Populations, Amanda J. Lea, Angela Garcia, Jesusa Arevalo, Julien F. Ayroles, Kenneth Buetow, Steve W. Cole, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Maguin Gutierrez, Heather M. Highland, Paul L. Hooper, Anne Justice, Thomas Kraft, Kari E. North, Jonathan Stieglitz, Hillard Kaplan, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

A growing body of work has addressed human adaptations to diverse environments using genomic data, but few studies have connected putatively selected alleles to phenotypes, much less among underrepresented populations such as Amerindians. Studies of natural selection and genotype–phenotype relationships in underrepresented populations hold potential to uncover previously undescribed loci underlying evolutionarily and biomedically relevant traits. Here, we worked with the Tsimane and the Moseten, two Amerindian populations inhabiting the Bolivian lowlands. We focused most intensively on the Tsimane, because long-term anthropological work with this group has shown that they have a high burden of both macro and microparasites, as …

A Classical Model Of Speculative Asset Price Dynamics, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

In retrospect, the experimental findings on competitive market behavior called for a revival of the old, classical, view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process (as opposed to price-taking behaviors) founded on reservation prices (in place of the utility function). In this paper, we specialize the classical methodology to deal with speculation, an important impediment to price stability. The model involves typical features of a field or lab asset market setup and lends itself to an experimental test of its specific predictions; here we use the model to explain three general stylized facts, well established both empirically and …

Better-Than-Chance Prediction Of Cooperative Behaviour From First And Second Impressions, Eric Schniter, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Could cooperation among strangers be facilitated by adaptations that use sparse information to accurately predict cooperative behaviour? We hypothesize that predictions are influenced by beliefs, descriptions, appearance, and behavioural history available for first and second impressions. We also hypothesize that predictions improve when more information is available. We conducted a two-part study. First, we recorded thin-slice videos of university students just before their choices in a repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma with matched partners. Second, a worldwide sample of raters evaluated each player using either videos, photos, only gender labels, or neither images nor labels. Raters guessed players’ first-round Prisoner’s Dilemma choices …

Contingent Payments In Procurement Interactions - Experimental Evidence, Matthew J. Walker, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

A primary objective of creating competition among suppliers is the procurement of higher quality goods and services at lower prices. When procuring non-standard goods, it is often difficult to write a complete specification of desired quality in the contract. Thus, payments to suppliers cannot be perfectly conditioned on the quality provided. We propose a correlated contingent payment contract to mitigate the supplier moral hazard problem while retaining competitive supplier selection based on price. We treat the probability of implementing contingent payments as probabilistic. The selected supplier’s payment is, according to a fixed probability, either the amount of their bid or …

Three Essays On The Political Economy Of Cultural Production And Creative Labor, Luke Pretz

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the relationships between capital, cultural production, and creative labor. Essay one theorizes the basis for the intensification of pop music stardom following the introduction of on-demand streaming technology. Prior to the emergence of on-demand streaming, record labels and broadcasters had a mutualistic relationship, wherein the near cost-free music provided by record labels formed the basis for radio broadcasts, which in turn formed the basis for the consumption of that music. Following the emergence of on-demand streaming the mutualistic relationship was ruptured. Broadcasters, in the form of streaming platforms, transitioned to the cost-efficient cultivation of masses of highly …

Unfair Commercial Practices In A Pit Market: Evidence From An Artefactual Field Experiment, Francesco Bogliacino, Rafael Charris, Cristiano Codagnone, Frans Folkvord, Felipe Montealegre, Francisco Lupiáñez-Villanueva

ESI Publications

Commercial practices such as drip pricing, reference pricing and best-price guarantee can be used to set higher prices and mislead consumers, but protective measures can restore efficiency. In a placebo-controlled market experiment, we examined a treatment allowing for the use and misuse of commercial practices. Three additional treatments tested the effects of formal sanctions, informal sanctions and a regret nudge. We found that commercial practices led to higher prices, cheating was systematic and regret nudging was ineffective. Furthermore, formal and informal sanctions reduced both the likelihood of using commercial practices and the likelihood of cheating, leading to welfare increases.

Litigation With Negative Expected Value Suits: An Experimental Analysis, Cary Deck, Paul Pecorino, Michael Solomon

ESI Working Papers

The existence of lawsuits providing plaintiffs a negative expected value (NEV) at trial has important theoretical implications for signaling models of litigation. The signaling equilibrium possible absent NEV suits breaks down with NEV suits because plaintiffs do not have a credible threat to proceed to trial undermining the ability to signal type. Using a laboratory experiment, we analyze behavior with and without the possibility of NEV suits. Absent NEV suits, behavior largely follows predicted patterns. However, the possibility of NEV suits does not cause the signaling equilibrium to unravel and does not cause the dispute rate to increase. Plaintiffs only …

Inequality As A Barrier To Economic Integration? An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Lukas Hohl, Rolf Weder

ESI Working Papers

International economic theory suggests that people should embrace economic integration because it promises large gains. But policy reversals such as Brexit indicate a desire for economic disintegration. Here we report results of an experiment of how size and cross-country distribution of gains from integration influence individuals’ inclination to cooperate to reap its intended benefits and to embrace or reject integration. The design considers an indefinitely repeated helping game with multiple equilibria and strategic uncertainty. The data reveal that inequality of potential gains neither affected behavior nor reduced support for economic integration. However, integration may lead to disappointing, unequally distributed welfare …

Information Aggregation With Heterogeneous Traders, Cary Deck, Tae In Jun, Laura Razzolini, Tavoy Reid

ESI Working Papers

The efficient market hypothesis predicts that asset prices reflect all available information. A seminal experiment reported that contingent claim markets could yield market outcomes consistent with information aggregation when traders hold heterogeneous state-contingent values. However, a recent experiment found the rational expectation model outperformed the prior information and maxi-min models in contingent claim markets when traders hold homogeneous values despite the no trade equilibrium in that setting. But that same study failed to replicate the original result calling into question when, if ever, prices reliably reflect the aggregate information of traders with heterogeneous values. In this paper, we show contingent …

United We Stand: On The Benefits Of Coordinated Punishment, Vicente Calabuig, Natalia Jiménez, Gonzalo Olcina, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

Coordinated punishment occurs when punishment decisions are complements; i.e., this punishment device requires a specific number of punishers to be effective; otherwise, no damage will be inflicted on the target. While societies often rely on this punishment device, its benefits are unclear compared with uncoordinated punishment, where punishment decisions are substitutes. We argue that coordinated punishment can prevent the free-riding of punishers and show, both theoretically and experimentally, that this may be beneficial for cooperation in a team investment game, compared with uncoordinated punishment.

Historical Political Economy: What Is It?, Jeffrey Jenkins, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

In this chapter, we define what historical political economy (HPE) is and is not, classify the major themes in the literature, assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of the literature, and point to future directions. We view HPE as social scientific inquiry which highlights political causes or consequences of historical issues. HPE is different from conventional political economy in the emphasis placed on historical processes and context. While we view HPE in the most inclusive manner reasonable, we define it to exclude works that are either solely of contemporary importance or use historical data without any historical context (e.g., long-run …

Cultural Transmission Vectors Of Essential Knowledge And Skills Among Tsimane Forager-Farmers, Eric Schniter, Hillard Kaplan, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

Humans transmit cultural information to others in a variety of ways that can affect productivity, cultural success, and ultimately fitness. Not all potential transmitters are expected to be equally preferred by learners or equally willing to influence their culture acquisition. Across socioeconomic opportunities and ages in the human life course, costs and benefits to both learners and potential transmitters are expected to vary, affecting rates of culture transmission from different vectors. Here we examine reported patterns of culture transmission contributing to 92 essential skills among a sample of 421 Tsimane forager-farmers native to Bolivia. Consistent with the expectation that the …

The Primacy Of Property; Or, The Subordination Of Property Rights, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Publications

A property right, the standard view maintains, is a proper subset of the most complete and comprehensive set of incidents for full ownership of a thing. The subsidiary assumption is that the pieces that are property rights compose the whole that is ownership or property, i.e., that property rights explain property. In reversing the standard view I argue that (1) a custom of intelligent and meaningful human action explains property and that (2) as a custom, property is a historical process of selecting actions conditional on the context. My task is to explain how a physical world of human bodies …

Nobel And Novice: Author Prominence Affects Peer Review, Jürgen Huber, Sabiou M. Inoua, Rudolf Kerschbamer, Christian König-Kersting, Stefan Palan, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Peer-review is a well-established cornerstone of the scientific process, yet it is not immune to status bias. Merton identified the problem as one in which prominent researchers get disproportionately great credit for their contribution while relatively unknown researchers get disproportionately little credit.¹ We measure the extent of this effect in the peer-review process through a pre-registered field experiment. We invite more than 3,300 researchers to review a paper jointly written by a prominent author – a Nobel laureate – and by a relatively unknown author – an early-career research associate –, varying whether reviewers see the prominent author’s name, …

Introducing New Forms Of Digital Money: Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera

ESI Working Papers

Central banks may soon issue currencies that are entirely digital (CBDCs) and possibly interest-bearing. A strategic analytical framework is used to investigate this innovation in the laboratory, contrasting a traditional “plain” tokens baseline to treatments with “sophisticated” interest-bearing tokens. In the experiment, this theoretically beneficial innovation precluded the emergence of a stable monetary system, reducing trade and welfare. Similar problems emerged when sophisticated tokens complemented or replaced plain tokens. This evidence underscores the advantages of combining theoretical with experimental investigation to provide insights for payments systems innovation and policy design.

The Doors Of Perception: Theory And Evidence Of Frame-Dependent Rationalizability, Gary Charness, Alessandro Sontuoso

ESI Working Papers

We investigate how strategic behavior is affected by the set of notions (frames) used when thinking about the game. In our games, the action set consists of visual objects: each player must privately choose one, trying to match the counterpart’s choice. We propose a model where different player-types are aware of different attributes of the action set (hence, different frames). One of the novelties is an epistemic structure that allows players to think about new frames, after initial unawareness of some attributes. To test the model, our experimental design brings about multiple frames by varying subjects’ awareness of several attributes.

When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?, Brice Corgnet, Cary Deck, Mark Desantis, Kyle Hampton, Erik O. Kimbrough

ESI Publications

We attempt to replicate a seminal paper that offered support for the rational expectations hypothesis and reported evidence that markets with certain features aggregate dispersed information. The original results are based on only a few observations, and our attempt to replicate the key findings with an appropriately powered experiment largely fails. The resulting poststudy probability that market performance is better described by rational expectations than the prior information (Walrasian) model under the conditions specified in the original paper is very low. As a result of our failure to replicate, we investigate an alternate set of market features that combines aspects …

Social Norms And Dishonesty Across Societies, Diego Aycinena, Lucas Rentschler, Benjamin Beranek, Jonathan F. Schulz

ESI Publications

Social norms have long been recognized as an important factor in curtailing antisocial behavior, and stricter prosocial norms are commonly associated with increased prosocial behavior. In this study, we provide evidence that very strict prosocial norms can have a perverse negative relationship with prosocial behavior. In laboratory experiments conducted in 10 countries across 5 continents, we measured the level of honest behavior and elicited injunctive norms of honesty. We find that individuals who hold very strict norms (i.e., those who perceive a small lie to be as socially unacceptable as a large lie) are more likely to lie to the …

A Universally Translatable Explication Of Adam Smith's Famous Proposition On "The Extent Of The Market", Bart J. Wilson, Gian Marco Farese

ESI Publications

Following Adam Smith’s line of argument, we examine the semantics of four economic principles in Chapter III of the Wealth of Nations that compose his famous proposition “that the division of labour is limited by the extent of the market.” We apply the Natural Semantic Metalanguage framework in linguistics to produce a series of explications that are clear and plain, cross-translatable into any language, intelligible to twenty-first-century readers, and faithfully close to the original text. Our paper explicates Smith’s logical argument in Chapter III and demonstrates how his ideas can be shared among speakers with different linguacultural backgrounds in line …

Preventing (Panic) Bank Runs, Hubert János Kiss, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso Rosa-Garcia

ESI Publications

We study experimentally an instrument to prevent bank runs in healthy banks. In particular, we extend the basic bank-run game, where depositors choose between withdrawing or keeping their money deposited, with a third option, the possibility to relocate funds to a priority account that is less profitable, but which guarantees a payoff even in a bank run. Theoretically, the use of this instrument dominates withdrawals for depositors without liquidity needs, and given this fact, depositors should optimally keep their deposits in the bank, so no bank run shall happen. In our experiment, we find evidence that the mechanism reduces not …

Review Of Religion And The Rise Of Capitalism, Jared Rubin

ESI Publications

A review of Religion and the Rise of Capitalism by Benjamin M. Friedman

Political Legitimacy In Historical Political Economy, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Political legitimacy has long been recognized in the social sciences as an integral component of governance. It encourages obedience without the threat of force, thus lowering governing costs and improving the efficacy of policies. This chapter begins by overviewing the extensive literature on political legitimacy, classifying studies by whether they are based on the beliefs (regarding the legitimacy of the authority) or effectiveness (good governance is legitimate governance). Among the studies focusing on beliefs, most take legitimacy as an exogenous element of political authority. We develop a conceptual framework to study how beliefs regarding political legitimacy form endogenously and impact …

300 Anniversary Of Smith’ Birth, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Thousand-word brief on key quotes from Adam Smith’s two books (TMS, WN) modelling Society and Economy.

How Do Reward Versus Penalty Framed Incentives Affect Diagnostic Performance In Auditing?, Bright (Yue) Hong, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Prior research examines how rewards versus economically equivalent penalties affect effort. However, accountants perform various diagnostic analyses that involve more than exerting effort. For example, auditors often need to identify whether a material misstatement is the underlying cause of a phenomenon among the possible causes. Testing helps identify the cause, but testing is costly. When participants are incentivized to test accurately (rather than test more) and objectively (unbiased between testing and not testing), we find that framing the incentives as rewards versus equivalent penalties increases testing by lowering the subjective testing criterion and by increasing the assessed risk of material …

Motives For Cooperation In The One-Shot Prisoner’S Dilemma, Mark Schneider, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the motives for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD). A prior study finds that cooperation rates in one-shot PD games can be ranked empirically by the social surplus from cooperation. That study employs symmetric payoffs from cooperation in simultaneous PD games. Hence, in that setting, it is not possible to discern the motives for cooperation since three prominent social welfare criteria, social surplus (efficiency) preferences, Rawlsian maximin preferences, and inequity aversion make the same predictions. In the present paper, we conduct an experiment to identify which of these social preferences best explains differences in cooperation rates and …

The Coronavirus Pandemic And Participation In The Influencer Economy, Emma Grace Richbourg

Honors Theses

The 2019 coronavirus pandemic, also referred to as the COVID-19 pandemic, altered day-to-day life and has effected the economy quite notably. The aim of this paper is to determine to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic altered consumer behavior and whether these alterations encouraged participation in the influencer economy, which represents social media influencers who create and monetize online content. In order to do so, I administered a survey to 250 respondents to evaluate the reach of influencers during the pandemic and whether social media users felt the presence of influencers was an effective marketing technique. I also conducted an analysis …

On The Generalizability Of Using Mobile Devices To Conduct Economic Experiments, Yiting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

Recent technological advances enable the implementation of online, field and hybrid experiments using mobile devices. Mobile devices enable sampling of incentivized decisions in more representative samples, consequently increasing the generalizability of results. Generalizability might be compromised, however, if the device is a relevant behavioural confound. This paper reports on a battery of common economic games and decision-making tasks in which we systematically randomize the decision-making device (computer versus mobile phone) and the laboratory setup (physical versus online). The results offer broad support for conducting decision experiments using mobile devices. For six out of eight tasks, we find robust null results …

Who Withdraws First? Line Formation During Bank Runs, Hubert János Kiss, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso Rosa-Garcia

ESI Working Papers

We study how lines form in front of banks. In our model, depositors choose first the level of effort to arrive early at the bank and then whether or not to withdraw their deposit. We argue that the informational environment (i.e., the possibility of observing the action of others) affects the emergence of bank runs and should, therefore, influence the line formation. We test this prediction experimentally. While the informational environment has no effect on the line formation when we look at the average level of effort, our findings suggest that the reasons to arrive early at the bank varies …

Agency, Benevolence And Justice, Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Working Papers

We test for social norms regarding how Agents should select between risky prospects for Principals, including norms consistent with observations by Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as ``impartial spectator[s]" about the choice of risky prospects selected by the Agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with Smith's observations. Furthermore, we find that Agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that Principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the Agents' choice was consistent with the norm.

Prevalence Of Dementia And Mild Cognitive Impairment In Indigenous Bolivian Forager-Horticulturalists, Margaret Gatz, Wendy J. Mack, Helena C. Chui, E. Meng Law, Giuseppe Barisano, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Juan Copajira Adrian, Jesus Bani Cuata, Amy R. Borenstein, Ellen E. Waters, Andrei Irimia, Christopher J. Rowan, L. Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Randall C. Thompson, Michael I. Miyamoto, David E. Michalik, Daniel K. Cummings, Edmond Seabright, Angela R. Garcia, Paul L. Hooper, Thomas S. Kraft, Caleb E. Finch, Gregory S. Thomas, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael D. Gurven, Hillard Kaplan

ESI Publications

Introduction

We evaluated the prevalence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in indigenous Tsimane and Moseten, who lead a subsistence lifestyle.

Methods

Participants from population-based samples ≥ 60 years of age (n = 623) were assessed using adapted versions of the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, informant interview, longitudinal cognitive testing and brain computed tomography (CT) scans.

Results

Tsimane exhibited five cases of dementia (among n = 435; crude prevalence = 1.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4, 2.7); Moseten exhibited one case (among n = 169; crude prevalence = 0.6%, 95% CI: 0.0, 3.2), all age ≥ 80 years. …