Economic Theory Commons^™

Group-Average Observables As Controls For Sorting On Unobservables When Estimating Group Treatment Effects: The Case Of School And Neighborhood Effects, Joseph G. Altonji, Richard K. Mansfield

Rick Mansfield

We consider the classic problem of estimating group treatment effects when individuals sort based on observed and unobserved characteristics. Using a standard choice model, we show that controlling for group averages of observed individual characteristics potentially absorbs all the across-group variation in unobservable individual characteristics. We use this insight to bound the treatment effect variance of school systems and associated neighborhoods for various outcomes. Across four datasets, our conservative estimates indicate that a 90th versus 10th percentile school system increases high school graduation and college enrollment probabilities by at least 0.047 and 0.11. Other applications include measurement of teacher value-added.

Low Mineral Density Of A Weight-Bearing Bone Among Adult Women In A High Fertility Population, Jonathan Stieglitz, Bret Beheim, Benjamin C. Trumble, Felicia C. Madimenos, Hillard Kaplan, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

Evolutionary theories of aging posit that greater reproductive effort causes somatic decline given a fundamental trade-off between investing energy in reproduction and repair. Few studies in high fertility human populations support this hypothesis, and problems of phenotypic correlation can obscure the expected trade-off between reproduction and somatic condition. This cross-sectional study investigates whether greater reproductive effort is associated with reduced calcaneal bone mineral density (BMD) among female Tsimane forager-farmers of lowland Bolivia. We also investigate whether female Tsimane BMD values are lower than sex- and age-matched US reference values, despite the fact that Tsimane engage in higher physical activity levels …

Leadership In An Egalitarian Society, Christopher Von Rueden, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz

ESI Publications

Leadership is instrumental to resolution of collective action dilemmas, particularly in large, heterogeneous groups. Less is known about the characteristics or effectiveness of leadership in small-scale, homogeneous, and relatively egalitarian societies, in which humans have spent most of our existence. Among Tsimane’ forager-horticulturalists of Bolivia, we (1) assess traits of elected leaders under experimental and naturalistic conditions and (2) test whether leaders impact collective action outcomes. We find that elected leaders are physically strong and have more kin and other exchange partners. Their ranks on physical dominance, kin support, and trustworthiness predict how well their groups perform, but only where …

Political Influence Associates With Cortisol And Health Among Egalitarian Forager-Farmers, Christopher Von Rueden, Benjamin C. Trumble, Melissa Emery Thompson, Jonathan Stieglitz, Paul L. Hooper, Aaron D. Blackwell, Hillard Kaplan, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

Background and objectives: Low social status increases risk of disease due, in part, to the psychosocial stress that accompanies feeling subordinate or poor. Previous studies report that chronic stress and chronically elevated cortisol can impair cardiovascular and immune function. We test whether lower status is more benign in small-scale, relatively egalitarian societies, where leaders lack coercive authority and there is minimal material wealth to contest.

Methodology: Among Tsimane’ forager-horticulturalists of lowland Bolivia, we compare informal political influence among men with urinary cortisol, immune activation (innate and acquired), and morbidity as assessed during routine medical exams.

Results: After …

Cost Share Adjustment Processes For Cooperative Group Decisions About Shared Goods: A Design Approach, Edna T. Loehman, Richard Kiser, Stephen Rassenti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

For group decision about shared goods, the nature of the shared good and how its cost is to be shared among group members must be determined. Complexity arises from heterogeneity in preferences and endowments and nonlinear cost. To facilitate group decision, this paper proposes special type of group decision support system, a cost share adjustment process (CSAP), in which cost shares are adjusted iteratively via algorithmic rules until unanimity is reached, ideally producing a socially optimal, cost feasible, and fair outcome. In contrast to public good literature, our designs apply for situations of nonlinear cost, with economies of scale and …

Public Good Economics And Standard Essential Patents, Christopher S. Yoo

All Faculty Scholarship

Standard essential patents have emerged as a major focus in both the public policy and academic arenas. The primary concern is that once a patented technology has been incorporated into a standard, the standard can effectively insulate it from competition from substitute technologies. To guard against the appropriation of quasi-rents that are the product of the standard setting process rather than the innovation itself, standard setting organizations (SSOs) require patentholders to disclose their relevant intellectual property before the standard has been adopted and to commit to license those rights on terms that are fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (FRAND).

To date …

Funerary Artifacts, Social Status, And Atherosclerosis In Ancient Peruvian Mummy Bundles, M. Linda Sutherland, Samantha L. Cox, Guido P. Lombardi, Lucia Watson, Clide M. Valladolid, Caleb E. Finch, Albert Zink, Bruno Frohlich, Hillard Kaplan, David E. Michalik, Michael I. Miyamoto, Adel H. Allam, Randall C. Thompson, L. Samuel Wann, Jagat Narula, Gregory S. Thomas, James D. Sutherland

ESI Publications

Background: Evidence of atherosclerotic plaques in ancient populations has led to the reconsideration of risk factors for heart disease and of the common belief that it is a disease of modern times.

Methods: Fifty-one wrapped mummy bundles excavated from the sites of Huallamarca, Pedreros, and Rinconada La Molina from the Puruchuco Museum collection in Lima, Peru, were scanned using computed tomography to investigate the presence of atherosclerosis. Funerary artifacts contained within the undisturbed mummy bundles were analyzed as an attempt to infer the social status of the individuals to correlate social status with evidence of heart disease in …

Why Did Ancient People Have Atherosclerosis?: From Autopsies To Computed Tomography To Potential Causes, Gregory S. Thomas, L. Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Randall C. Thompson, David E. Michalik, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Guido P. Lombardi, Lucia Watson, Samantha L. Cox, Clide M. Valladolid, Gomaa Abd El-Maksoud, Muhammad Al-Tohamy Soliman, Ibrahem Badr, Abd El-Halim Nur El-Din, Emily M. Clarke, Ian G. Thomas, Michael I. Miyamoto, Hillard Kaplan, Bruno Frohlich, Jagat Narula, Alexandre F. R. Stewart, Albert Zink, Caleb E. Finch

ESI Publications

Computed tomographic findings of atherosclerosis in the ancient cultures of Egypt, Peru, the American Southwest and the Aleutian Islands challenge our understanding of the fundamental causes of atherosclerosis. Could these findings be true? Is so, what traditional risk factors might be present in these cultures that could explain this apparent paradox? The recent computed tomographic findings are consistent with multiple autopsy studies dating as far back as 1852 that demonstrate calcific atherosclerosis in ancient Egyptians and Peruvians. A nontraditional cause of atherosclerosis that could explain this burden of atherosclerosis is the microbial and parasitic inflammatory burden likely to be present …

Atherosclerosis: A Longue Durée Approach, L. Samuel Wann, Randall C. Thompson, Adel H. Allam, Caleb E. Finch, Albert Zink, Hillard Kaplan, Bruno Frohlich, Guido P. Lombardi, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Lucia Watson, Samantha L. Cox, Michael I. Miyamoto, Alexandre F. R. Stewart, Jagat Narula, Gregory S. Thomas

ESI Publications

Fernand Braudel popularized the longue durée approach to scholarly investigation in the mid-20th century. The longue durée approach can be loosely translated to mean “look for the big picture, synthesize data collected using all available methodology over the long periods of time to identify fundamental principles, rather than becoming preoccupied with isolated observations.” Braudel, a historian and economist, emphasized observation of enduring historical structures and analysis of long-term, panoramic economic trends rather than concentrating on detailed descriptions of particular events or individuals. He also urged the use of insight gained from many scholarly disciplines to identify the essential underpinnings of …

Genomic Correlates Of Atherosclerosis In Ancient Humans, Albert Zink, L. Samuel Wann, Randall C. Thompson, Andreas Keller, Frank Maixner, Adel H. Allam, Caleb E. Finch, Bruno Frohlich, Hillard Kaplan, Guido P. Lombardi, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Lucia Watson, Samantha L. Cox, Michael I. Miyamoto, Jagat Narula, Alexandre F. R. Stewart, Gregory S. Thomas, Johannes Krause

ESI Publications

Paleogenetics offers a unique opportunity to study human evolution, population dynamics, and disease evolution in situ. Although histologic and computed x-ray tomographic investigations of ancient mummies have clearly shown that atherosclerosis has been present in humans for more than 5,000 years, limited data are available on the presence of genetic predisposition for cardiovascular disease in ancient human populations. In a previous whole-genome study of the Tyrolean Iceman, a 5,300-year-old glacier mummy from the Alps, an increased risk for coronary heart disease was detected. The Iceman’s genome revealed several single nucleotide polymorphisms that are linked with cardiovascular disease in genome-wide association …

How Portable Is Level-0 Behavior? A Test Of Level-K Theory In Games With Non-Neutral Frames, Shaun Hargreaves Heap, David Rojo Arjona, Robert Sugden

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We test the portability of level‐0 assumptions in level‐k theory in an experimental investigation of behavior in Coordination, Discoordination, and Hide and Seek games with common, non‐neutral frames. Assuming that level‐0 behavior depends only on the frame, we derive hypotheses that are independent of prior assumptions about salience. Those hypotheses are not confirmed. Our findings contrast with previous research which has fitted parameterized level‐k models to Hide and Seek data. We show that, as a criterion of successful explanation, the existence of a plausible model that replicates the main patterns in these data has a high probability of …

Wage Negotiation Under Good Faith Bargaining, Jesse Schwartz, Quan Wen

Jesse A. Schwartz

We study the wage negotiation model of Haller and Holden (1990) and Fernandez and Glazer (1991) under the "Good Faith Bargaining" (GFB) rule, where a party may not demand more than it has previously demanded. The GFB rule significantly restricts feasible strategies, but at the same time, makes the game non-stationary and the analysis complicated. We introduce a state-dependent backward induction that generalizes Shaked and Sutton (1984) to characterize the equilibrium payoffs. We find that the GFB rule eliminates the union's credibility to strike. Without the strikes, the union's strategic opportunities during disagreement disappear, so that there is a unique …

Too Hot To Handle: Managing America’S Ecosystems In A Changing Climate, Riley Morin

Honors Capstone Projects - All

For over 140 years, Americans and have enjoyed their national parks. In the national parks, nature and history come together to form uniquely public as well as enormously valuable landscapes. Today, America’s national parks are in danger of undergoing serious changes. Climate change is going to alter the physical characteristics of the national parks. Many of the parks have changed before, but this change will be the most dramatic. In this report I examine the historical and current mission of the National Park Service. I also examine the past and current valuation of the national parks by the American people. …

Historical Health Conditions In Major Us Cities: The Hue Data Set, Carlos Villareal, Brian Bettenhausen, Eric Hanss, Jonathan Hersh

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The Historical Urban Ecological data set is a new resource detailing health and environmental conditions within seven major U.S. cities during the study period from 1830 to 1930. Researchers collected and digitized ward-level data from annual reports of municipal departments that detail the epidemiological, economic, and demographic conditions within each city. They then drafted new geographic information system data to link the tabular records to ward geographies. These data provide a new foundation to revisit questions surrounding the urban mortality transition and the growth of U.S. cities.

A Piece Of The Puzzle: Can Behavioral Insights Help Understand Currency Returns?, Samuel D. Russell

Senior Theses and Projects

This paper finds further evidence using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression to support claims against the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) ex post, referred to as the Forward Discount Anomaly (Fama, 1984). This anomaly suggests predictable profits simply from investing in a country with a higher interest rate. Potential explanations could be attributed to risk or deviations from the rational expectations hypothesis. UIP ex ante is tested using survey data. These results indicate a time-­‐ varying risk premium. Further it is found that this premium is related to the gap between the exchange rate and Purchasing-­‐Power-­‐Parity value. Additionally it is determined …

Contingent Valuation Methodology: Evaluation Of Benefits Of Improving Water Quality In The Lake Tai Region, Zongda Tu

Undergraduate Economic Review

Environmental economics is a relatively new field in the subject of economics. While the developing countries are growing and developing rapidly, the conflict between economic development and environmental preservation is becoming more and more irreconcilable. This methodology paper addresses the relationship between the water quality in the Lake Tai Region in China and economic benefits, and presents the contingent valuation methdology (CVM) to evaluate benefits.

The Evolutionary Fitness Of Personality Traits In A Small-Scale Subsistence Society, Michael Gurven, Christopher Von Rueden, Jonathan Stieglitz, Hillard Kaplan, Daniel Eid Rodriguez

ESI Publications

"Personality, or “behavioral syndromes”, are relatively stable dispositional traits and behaviors that have now been identified in a myriad of social species (Gosling, 2001; Sih et al., 2004), and with clear consequences on fitness (Smith & Blumstein, 2008). The canalization of personality during development and relative stability thereafter, despite varying circumstances over the life course that might otherwise favor greater plasticity, is an important problem attracting much theoretical and empirical attention (Dall et al., 2004; Dingemanse et al., 2010). Further, personality is highly heritable, yet how heritable genetic variation in personality traits is maintained over generations remains another conundrum (Buss …

Productive Complements: Too Often Neglected In The Principles Course?, Gary Galles, Philip E. Graves, Robert L. Sexton

PHILIP E GRAVES

Many great economic thinkers, including Alfred Marshall and William Stanley Jevons discussed the importance of joint production, or productive complements, and there are important applications. Yet many students today could complete an economics major and never be introduced to this important concept.

Los Bancos Del Tiempo En España: Combatiendo La Recesión Con La Moneda Social, Marco Martellini

CMC Senior Theses

Un banco del tiempo (BDT) es el nombre formal que se le da a unas instituciones comunitarias que operan con horas de tiempo personal y laboral como moneda oficial. Son sistemas organizados de moneda social que permiten a sus usuarios intercambiar su propio tiempo y destreza en forma de créditos de servicio. La unidad de moneda es una hora de trabajo. Los BDT son parte de la categoría de moneda alternativa social y representan una evolución moderna de entidades clásicas como los trueques.

Los BDT valoran conceptos como compartir, igualdad y mutualismo. Así, funcionan como un sistema alternativo a los …

Bitcoin: Is Cryptocurrency Viable?, Austin Hill

CMC Senior Theses

Bitcoin, a virtual currency invented in 2009, was created as a peer-to-peer currency that eliminated the need for a third party authority, such as banks or government, to be involved in monetary transactions. Having no intrinsic value but carrying no government guarantees relegates bitcoin and its competitors to the perpetual role of investment opportunity, deriving value not from a practical use, but from a nominal, dollar value. This will continue to be the case until the U.S. Government sanctions virtual currency as a viable store of value. Because the dollar plays such a large role in the world’s economy, other …

Understanding The Distributional Impact Of Long-Run Inflation, Gabriele Camera, Yili Chen

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The impact of fully anticipated inflation is systematically studied in heterogeneous agent economies with an endogenous labor supply and portfolio choices. In stationary equilibrium, inflation nonlinearly alters the endogenous distributions of income, wealth, and consumption. Small departures from zero inflation have the strongest impact. Three features determine how inflation impacts distributions and welfare: financial structure, shock persistence, and labor supply elasticity. When agents can self-insure only with money, inflation reduces wealth inequality but may raise consumption inequality. Otherwise, inflation reduces consumption inequality but may raise wealth inequality. Given persistent shocks and an inelastic labor supply, inflation may raise average welfare. …

Money Is More Than Memory, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Impersonal exchange is the hallmark of an advanced society. One key institution for impersonal exchange is money, which economic theory considers just a primitive arrangement for monitoring past conduct in society. If so, then a public record of past actions—or memory—supersedes the function performed by money. This intriguing theoretical postulate remains untested. In an experiment, we show that the suggested functional equality between money and memory does not translate into an empirical equivalence. Monetary systems perform a richer set of functions than just revealing past behaviors, which proves to be crucial in promoting large-scale cooperation.

Skill Ontogeny Among Tsimane Forager-Horticulturalists, Eric Schniter, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Nathaniel Wilcox, Paul Hooper

ESI Working Papers

No abstract provided.

Accounting Standards And Financial Market Stability: An Experimental Examination, Shengle Lin, Glenn Pfeiffer, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

We examine the effect on asset mispricing of different accounting methods in an experimental asset market characterized by bubbles and crashes. In particular, we study three alternative asset value reporting treatments: (1) Fair Value (also known as Mark-to-Market – M2M), (2) Historical Cost (HC) and (3) Marked to Fundamental Value (M2F). In addition, each of these treatments is replicated in two different financial leverage conditions. In the first condition (No Loan) traders must purchase assets from their available cash balances without the option of borrowing. In the second condition, (Loan), traders are given the option of taking out loans based …

People Do Not Discount Heavily In Strategic Settings, But They Believe Others Do, Cary Deck, Salar Jahedi

ESI Working Papers

Several studies have shown that people greatly discount future bene ts and costs. However, most of the direct laboratory evidence of this phenomenon has focused on individual choice experiments. This paper investigates the degree to which the timing of payments a ects behavior in four commonly studies strategic settings: a Prisoner's Dilemma game, a Stag-Hunt game, a First Price Auction and a Second Price Auction. In all four settings, a two week delay in payo s has a comparable e ect to a 20% reduc- tion in current payo s. A follow-up study suggests that it is an individual's strategic …

Predictable And Predictive Emotions: Explaining Cheap Signals And Trust Re-Extension, Eric Schniter, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Publications

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to …

Divided Loyalists Or Conditional Cooperators? Creating Consensus About Cooperation In Multiple Simultaneous Social Dilemmas, Matthew W. Mccarter, Anya Samek, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Publications

The current social dilemma literature lacks theoretical consensus regarding how individuals behave when facing multiple simultaneous social dilemmas. The divided-loyalty hypothesis, from organizational theory, predicts that cooperation will decline as individuals experience multiple social dilemmas with different compared to the same group members. The conditional-cooperation hypothesis, from behavioral economics, predicts that cooperation will increase as individuals experience multiple social dilemmas with different compared to the same group members. We employ a laboratory experiment to create consensus between these literatures and find support for the conditional-cooperation hypothesis. The positive effect of interacting with different group members comes from participants having an …

Decision Making In A Sequential Game: The Case Of Pitting In Nascar, Alan Deck, Cary Deck, Zhen Zhu

ESI Publications

This article uses data from NASCAR to examine strategic decision making with professional players and high stakes. The authors look at driver decisions to pit, enabling car performance to be improved at the cost of track position. Unlike other sports choices that have been used to test game-theoretic play, pitting decisions occur sequentially. Therefore, optimal decision making should result in the sub-game perfect equilibrium outcome. After estimating the likelihood of successfully passing another driver, the authors find some evidence that drivers make optimal decisions; however, driver behavior is also consistent with a simple heuristic of following the preceding car.

Double Bubbles In Assets Markets With Multiple Generations, Cary Deck, David Porter, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Publications

We construct an asset market in a finite horizon overlapping-generations environment. Subjects are tested for comprehension of their fundamental value exchange environment and then reminded during each of 25 periods of the environment's declining new value. We observe price bubbles forming when new generations enter the market with additional liquidity and bursting as old generations exit the market and withdrawing cash. The entry and exit of traders in the market creates an M shaped double bubble price path over the life of the traded asset. This finding is significant in documenting that bubbles can reoccur within one extended trading horizon …

Experimenting With Behavior Based Pricing, Zuzana Brokesova, Cary Deck, Jana Peliova

ESI Working Papers

Many purchases of differentiated goods are repeated, giving sellers the opportunity to engage in price discrimination based upon the shopper’s previous behavior by either offering loyalty discounts to repeat buyers or introductory rates to new customers. Recent theoretical work suggests that loyalty discounts are likely to be implemented when customer preferences are not stationary and sellers can pre-commit to prices for repeat buyers, but otherwise repeat buyers can be expected to pay the same or more than new buyers. This paper reports the results of a series of controlled laboratory experiments designed to empirically test the impact of these factors …