Economic Theory Commons^™

Institutional Divergence In Economic Development, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

The Anglo-American capitalist model (AACM) encompasses a set of theories and policies that advance the classical objectives of individual autonomy, wealth acquisition, and economic growth. In the twentieth century, the neoclassical goal of short-run Pareto efficiency was added yet remains in possible tension with these other aims. The AACM generally upholds the primacy of markets as the means for achieving its normative ideals through private, decentralized actions, with some exceptions. In the modern political arena this ideology is associated with the Reagan-Thatcher revolution of the 1980s and provides a framework for many who oppose statist solutions to social problems (Steger …

Commentary, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

It is a pleasure to discuss Richard Anderson and Charles Gascon’s (2009) article on their attempt to develop a state-space model to measure potential output growth in the face of data revisions. They use the methodology of Cunningham et al. (2007) applied to real output, to see if they can develop a better measure of potential output than other researchers. Such an approach seems promising, and they develop a unique method to study the data.

How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.

Does Free Trade Cause Hunger? Hidden Implications Of The Ftaa, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

Voluntary free trade has the potential, slowly and gradually over time, to create "general opulence" because it allows workers to acquire greater competency and specialization: in a word, workers become more productive. The creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) would expand market areas and thereby potentially contribute to raising future living standards of workers. This paper seeks to analyze the theoretical basis for trade, provide an economic overview of FTAA countries, and analyze the winners and losers from trade.

The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The decisions of households, firms, and government agencies depend on forecasts of the overall economy. Large firms and the federal government often have the resources to hire their own economists to provide forecasts. But households, small firms, and local governments often depend on surveys of forecasters to get their information. In this article, Dean Croushore spotlights the Livingston Survey, which, even after 50 years, still provides useful forecasts of the economy.

Evaluating Mccallum's Rule For Monetary Policy, Dean D. Croushore, Tom Stark

Economics Faculty Publications

Some economists have proposed that the Federal Reserve follow a rigid rule for conducting monetary policy. A policy rule is a formula that tells the Fed how to set monetary policy. For example, in 1959 Milton Friedman argued that the Fed should increase the money supply a constant 4 percent each year to eliminate inflation and avoid destabilizing the economy. More recently, other economists have identified an additional benefit: a rule can eliminate the inflationary bias that could occur when discretionary monetary policy is used. Under a discretionary policy, decisions are made on a case-by-case basis.

But economists don't agree …

What Are The Costs Of Disinflation?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The Federal Reserve can use monetary policy to reduce the inflation rate, a process known as disinflation. Are the benefits of disinflation worth the costs? Proponents of disinflation argue that the long-run benefits of price stability, including lower interest rates, increased economic efficiency, and perhaps faster economic growth, greatly exceed the short-run costs. Opponents, of course, claim the opposite, usually arguing that the short-run costs in terms of higher unemployment and lost output would be immense.