Economic Theory Commons^™

A Volatility-Based Theory Of Fiscal Union Desirability, Jaime Luque, Massimo Morelli, José Tavares

Jaime P. Luque

Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal

Research Collection School Of Economics

We define a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging inefficient, non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. Without requiring that agents have perfect foresight, we show that perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to differ from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.

Reflexivity In Financial Markets: A Neuroeconomic Examination Of Uncertainty And Cognition In Financial Markets, Steven Pikelny

Senior Projects Spring 2011

Financial markets exist to disperse the risks of an unknown future in an economy. But for this process to work in an optimal fashion, investors – and subsequently markets – must have a way to interpret uncertainty. The investor rationality and market efficiency literature utilizes a methodology inadequate to address this fact, so I supplement it with the perspectives of epistemology, economic sociology, neuroscience, cognitive science, and philosophy of mind. This approach suggests that what is commonly viewed as market “inefficiency” is not necessarily caused by investor irrationality, but rather by the inherent nature of the epistemological problem faced by …

From Hayek To Keynes: G.L.S. Shackle And Our Ignorance Of The Future, Greg Hill

Greg Hill

G.L.S. Shackle stood at the historic crossroads where the economics of Hayek and Keynes collided. Shackle fused these opposing lines of thought in a macroeconomic theory that draws Keynesian conclusions from Austrian premises. In Shackle’s scheme of thought, the power to imagine alternative courses of action releases decision makers from the web of predictable causation. But the continuous stream of spontaneous and unpredictable choices that originate in the subjective and disparate orientations of individual agents denies us the possibility of rational expectations, and therewith the logical coherence of market equilibrium through time.

The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The discounting of future income streams by a risk adjusted rate of return by proponents of the income method reflects a misplaced faith in the ability to project accurately future income streams and pick out the “right” rate of return. Future income streams are fairly reliably predictable when analyzing a debt instrument. However, equity investment future income streams are notoriously unpredictable. Similarly assessing the risk associated with realizing returns from a fixed security is comparatively easy in comparison with assessing the risks associated with equity returns. The widely used Beta has not proved to be a very stable measure of …