Economic Theory Commons^™

Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro

Luciano I. de Castro

Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand for electricity. We describe how to implement a simple prediction market for continuous variables, using only contracts based on binary variables. We also discuss specific issues concerning the implementation of such a market.

The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing And Evaluating New Patterns Of The Trilemma Configuration, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.

A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

following the Global financial Crisis there were economic collapses in all the world. Sudan officials claimed that the country was immune from that epidemic. Such declaration were truly weird as it has been deeply affected from the first instant. That article presented many questions about the economic and social conditions and the eminent southern Sudan, Darfur crises.

There Should Be Little Or No Liquidity Discounts For Controlling Interests In Closely Held Businesses, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The application of liquidity discounts to the appraised values of controlling interests in closely held businesses reflects a failure of the valuation community to fully appreciate the fact that these equity interests belong to a fundamentally different investment class than publicly traded securities. Investors in publicly traded securities have dramatically different expectations about the benefits and sacrifices of such investments, compared to the expectations of benefits and sacrifices of investors in closely held companies. Investors in publicly traded securities expect their minority interest investments to be highly liquid, yield free cash flow, and require no participation in the management of …

Are Credit Unions In Ecuador Achieving Economies Of Scale?, Nick A. Marchio

Economics Honors Projects

This study tests the assertion that membership growth in credit unions is constrained by their unique structural features, such as their non-profit mission and member-based ownership. Although these features enhance inclusiveness, existing theory suggest that they work against efficiency when membership grows too diffuse. To address this issue, this study uses a model that takes into account existing theory on constrained-optimization in credit unions and theory on the adverse effects of diffuse ownership. Using data on 36 public credit unions in Ecuador, the empirical analysis finds evidence that credit unions can achieve economies of scale despite their problematic structural features. …

The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The emergence of the Janjaweed as an armed force working with the government to suppress rebellions in Darfur region outraged the international community. They were marked by brutality, destruction, burning, killings and mass rapes. They were also described as Arabs. However, that was not the whole picture, no one observed the living conditions of the Arabs or how were they victims also as the other inhabitants of Darfur. No one also observed that they were used by the Ingaz government to execute the dirty work and bear the consequences. The Arab tribes however, also had other thoughts as they realized …

Why Economic Performance Has Differed Between Brazil And China? A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian And Chinese Macroeconomic Policy, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper addresses a specific question: why has China grown so rapidly and Brazil not? To answer this question, it (i) establishes the basis for comparison between China and Brazil by contextualizing these countries within the BRICs concept, and (ii) presents a comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese reforms focusing only on the issue of macroeconomic policy, especially the monetary and exchange rate regimes, and its effect on growth.

Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Most developing and underdeveloped countries beside Sudan suffer from low levels of income in addition to the low savings that are result from the lack of public savings channels. Hence, investments depend on the individuals' abilities on savings where they are major motivating vehicle for economic activity due to its direct correlation with capital accumulation process that increases the productive capacity for the national economy and help to create job opportunities and achieving economic development. Subsequently, the importance of the investment comes from the effective role that can be practiced on the national product. Currently, Sudan endures severe economic crisis …

Rogue Counrty And Potential Cooperation: The United States And Sudan And Feasible Economic Partnership, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The United States declared Sudan as a rogue country in 1995 due to many political considerations. It has imposed many economic and political sanctions against it since that time which represented hindrance to development and resulted in economic crises. Oil explorations started long time by Total Oil Company and resumed by Chevron that halted her activities in Sudan after the flaring of the civil war between the Northern and Southern parts of the country. That work was resumed in 1996 by Chinese companies and was crowned by success and commercial production in 1999. Although the economic situations of Sudan improved …

Who Cries For Sudan: من الذي يرثي السودان, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The institutional collapse in Sudan started long time ago. However, it has accelerator in the past years since Nivasha Comprehensive Peace Agreement and Darfur war.

Two Essays On Earnings Quality And Corporate Decisions, Qian Sun

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation investigates how earnings quality as an information risk may facilitate our understanding of the choice of payment method in mergers and acquisitions and the value and the level of corporate cash holdings. In a world of asymmetric information and agency problem, Poor earnings quality implies the inadequate supply of relevant and reliable information for investors to monitor and discipline the behavior of firm managers to act in shareholder and stakeholder's best interest.

This study contributes to the literature in three folds. First, I add to the literature by postulating that earnings quality has a significant impact on the …

A Two-Sided Auction For Legacy Loans, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

On Monday, 23 March 2009, Treasury Secretary Geithner presented the Public-Private Investment Program as a key instrument to resolve the financial crisis (www.financialstability.gov). The Treasury’s description still leaves many issues unanswered. We flesh out the auction design for legacy loans. A two-sided auction is required. Both banks and private investors must compete in a transparent and competitive process.

Foreword To Ross Baldick's 'Single Clearing Price In Electricity Markets', Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

Argues that consumers and suppliers are better off with the clearing-price auction in electricity markets.

John Langshaw Austin: Evolution, Communication And Language Daily (John Langshaw Austin: Evolución, Comunicación Y Lenguaje Cotidiano) Spanish, Fernando Estrada

Fernando Estrada

In this paper the main purpose is to expose the relevance of focus of John L. Austin and their opposition a conception type on the communication. Austin elaborates - in its own terms - to “linguistic phenomenology,” with which revises some places thrashed critically. Those “you force illocutionary” and those “speech acts,” they will be central concepts in this analytic company. In the perspective of Austin should not make a mistake communication with information. The work that here develop it proposes some usually notices in defense of the normative functions of the language ordinary.

Labyrinth Of Modernity, Interpretation Of The Old Regime And The Revolution Of Alexis De Tocqueville (Laberinto De La Modernidad. Interpretación Del Antiguo Régimen Y La Revolución De Alexis De Tocqueville) Spanish, Fernando Estrada, José Daniel Parra

Fernando Estrada

CIPE in this book presents an interpretation of the Old Regime and the Revolution of Alexis de Tocqueville.

Meditations On Machiavelli (Meditaciones En Maquiavelo) Spanish, Fernando Estrada, José Daniel Parra

Fernando Estrada

The presentation of Machiavelli in the field of studies of Finance, Government and International Relations is twofold. First, show that we can better understand the problems of our time in the footsteps comprehensive than classical authors have left us. A student can recognize progressive power that were taking concepts such as politics, power, status, conflict, political parties, institutions, representation and social movements, from writing original authors as Florentine thinker.

How Best To Auction Natural Resources, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

I study the design of auctions of natural resources, such as oil or mineral rights. A good auction design promotes both an efficient assignment of rights and competitive revenues for the seller. The structure of bidder preferences and the degree of competition are key factors in determining the best design. With weak competition and additive values, a simultaneous first-price sealed-bid auction may suffice. With more complex value structures, a dynamic auction with package bids, such as the clock-proxy auction, likely is needed to promote the efficiency and revenue objectives. Bidding on production shares, rather than bonuses, typically increases government take …

Auctioning The Digital Dividend, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

I begin by describing some of the problems of the simultaneous ascending auction. Then I present the package clock auction, which retains the benefits, while addressing the weaknesses, of the simultaneous ascending auction. I emphasize two essential elements of the package clock auction: the pricing rule and the activity rule. Along the way, I summarize both experimental and field results with the package clock auction.

The Alliance Formation Puzzle And Capacity Constraints, Kai A. Konrad, Dan Kovenock

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The formation of an alliance in conflict situations is known to suffer from a collective action problem and from the potential of internal conflict. We show that budget constraints of an intermediate size can overcome this strong disadvantage and explain the formation of alliances.

Existence Of Equilibrium In General Bertrand Games, José Fajardo, Guilherme Carmona

José Fajardo

No abstract provided.