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Full-Text Articles in Economic Theory
A Forensic Analysis Of Global Imbalances, Menzie David Chinn, Barry Eichengreen, Hiro Ito
A Forensic Analysis Of Global Imbalances, Menzie David Chinn, Barry Eichengreen, Hiro Ito
Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations
We examine whether the behavior of current account balances changed in the years preceding the global crisis of 2008-09, and assess the prospects for global imbalances in the post-crisis period. Changes in the budget balance are an important factor affecting current account balances for deficit countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. The effect of the “saving glut variables” on current account balances has been relatively stable for emerging market countries, suggesting that those factors cannot explain the bulk of their recent current account movements. We also find the 2006-08 period to constitute a structural break for emerging market …
East Asia And Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, And Financial Development, Hiro Ito, Menzie David Chinn
East Asia And Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, And Financial Development, Hiro Ito, Menzie David Chinn
Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations
We investigate the role of budget balances, financial development and openness, in the evolution of global imbalances. Financial development – or the lack thereof – has received considerable attention as a possible contributing factor to the development of persistent and expanding current account imbalances. Several observers have argued that the depth and sophistication of US capital markets have caused capital to flow from relatively underdeveloped East Asian financial markets. In this paper, we extend our previous work by examining the effect of different types and aspects of financial development. Our cross-country analysis, encompassing a sample of 19 industrialized countries and …
Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy Versus East Asian Savings, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito
Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy Versus East Asian Savings, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito
Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations
We consider the origins of global current account imbalances. We first discuss how the expansion of the US current account deficit and the decrease in global real interest rates can be reconciled with the widespread view that American expansionary fiscal policy is partly the source of current trends. We then investigate empirically the medium-term determinants of the current account using a model that controls for factors related to institutional development. In addition to the conventional macroeconomic factors, we examine a series of environmental factors, including the degree of financial openness and the extent of legal development. We find that for …
Financial Development And Financial Liberalization In Asia: Thresholds, Institutions And The Sequence Of Liberalization, Hiro Ito
Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations
I investigate whether financial openness leads to financial development after controlling for the level of legal/institutional development, and whether trade opening is a precondition for financial opening, focusing on Asia. Utilizing a panel encompassing 87 less developed countries over the period 1980 to 2000, I find that a higher level of financial openness spurs equity market development only if a threshold level of legal development has been attained, a condition prevalent particularly among emerging market Asian countries. On the issue of sequencing, trade openness is found to be a prerequisite for successful inducement of financial development via capital account liberalization.