Behavioral Economics Commons^™

Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro

Luciano I. de Castro

Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand for electricity. We describe how to implement a simple prediction market for continuous variables, using only contracts based on binary variables. We also discuss specific issues concerning the implementation of such a market.

A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

following the Global financial Crisis there were economic collapses in all the world. Sudan officials claimed that the country was immune from that epidemic. Such declaration were truly weird as it has been deeply affected from the first instant. That article presented many questions about the economic and social conditions and the eminent southern Sudan, Darfur crises.

Searching For A New Brand: Reimagining A More Diverse Orlando, Kevin Archer, Kris Bezdecny

All Faculty Scholarship for the School of Graduate Studies and Research

No abstract provided.

Financial Regulation And Securitization: Evidence From Subprime Mortgage Loans, Benjamin J. Keys, Tanmoy K. Mukherjee, Amit Seru, Vikrant Vig

Benjamin J. Keys

We examine the consequences of existing regulations on the quality of mortgage loans originations in the originate to distribute (OTD) market. The information asymmetries in the OTD market can lead to moral hazard problems on the part of lenders. We find, using a plausibly exogenous source of variation in the ease of securitization, that the quality of loan originations varies inversely with the amount of regulation: more regulated lenders originate loans of worse quality. We interpret this result as possible evidence that the fragility of lightly regulated originators' capital structure can mitigate moral hazard. In addition, we find that incentives …

The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The emergence of the Janjaweed as an armed force working with the government to suppress rebellions in Darfur region outraged the international community. They were marked by brutality, destruction, burning, killings and mass rapes. They were also described as Arabs. However, that was not the whole picture, no one observed the living conditions of the Arabs or how were they victims also as the other inhabitants of Darfur. No one also observed that they were used by the Ingaz government to execute the dirty work and bear the consequences. The Arab tribes however, also had other thoughts as they realized …

Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Most developing and underdeveloped countries beside Sudan suffer from low levels of income in addition to the low savings that are result from the lack of public savings channels. Hence, investments depend on the individuals' abilities on savings where they are major motivating vehicle for economic activity due to its direct correlation with capital accumulation process that increases the productive capacity for the national economy and help to create job opportunities and achieving economic development. Subsequently, the importance of the investment comes from the effective role that can be practiced on the national product. Currently, Sudan endures severe economic crisis …

Time Use And Food Consumption, Marianne Bertrand, Diane Schanzenbach

Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach

No abstract provided.

Rogue Counrty And Potential Cooperation: The United States And Sudan And Feasible Economic Partnership, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The United States declared Sudan as a rogue country in 1995 due to many political considerations. It has imposed many economic and political sanctions against it since that time which represented hindrance to development and resulted in economic crises. Oil explorations started long time by Total Oil Company and resumed by Chevron that halted her activities in Sudan after the flaring of the civil war between the Northern and Southern parts of the country. That work was resumed in 1996 by Chinese companies and was crowned by success and commercial production in 1999. Although the economic situations of Sudan improved …

Who Cries For Sudan: من الذي يرثي السودان, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed

The institutional collapse in Sudan started long time ago. However, it has accelerator in the past years since Nivasha Comprehensive Peace Agreement and Darfur war.

A Two-Sided Auction For Legacy Loans, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

On Monday, 23 March 2009, Treasury Secretary Geithner presented the Public-Private Investment Program as a key instrument to resolve the financial crisis (www.financialstability.gov). The Treasury’s description still leaves many issues unanswered. We flesh out the auction design for legacy loans. A two-sided auction is required. Both banks and private investors must compete in a transparent and competitive process.

Foreword To Ross Baldick's 'Single Clearing Price In Electricity Markets', Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

Argues that consumers and suppliers are better off with the clearing-price auction in electricity markets.

Enabling Environments For Social Enterprise Development. Analytical Framework And International Exploratory Study Of Good Practices, Raf Peels, Caroline Gijselinckx, Wim Van Opstal, Li Zhao

Wim Van Opstal

The ILO Social Enterprise Development Targeting Unemployed Youth in South Africa (SETYSA) project seeks to promote social enterprise development in South Africa by supporting progress towards a conducive enabling environment and the development of appropriate business development service (BDS) products for potential social entrepreneurs, with a particular focus on young entrepreneurs. The ultimate objective of the project is to encourage the creation of employment opportunities within social enterprises, as well as the social value delivered by the goods and services they produce.

This report presents a selection of policy measures that governments worldwide are taking to create a supportive environment …

Een Monitor Voor De Sociale Inschakelingseconomie In Vlaanderen. Methodologierapport., Eva Deraedt, Wim Van Opstal

Wim Van Opstal

Dit rapport beschrijft de gehanteerde methodologie bij het opstellen van een monitoringinstrument dat ontwikkeld werd om de sociale inschakelingseconomie in Vlaanderen in kaart te brengen (Deraedt & Van Opstal, 2009). De ontwikkeling van dit instrument vond plaats aan het HIVA (K.U.Leuven), kadert in de onderzoekswerkzaamheden van het Steunpunt Werk en Sociale Economie en werd uitgevoerd in opdracht van de Vlaamse administratie. De opdracht bestond erin bestaande databanken maximaal te valoriseren om zo het veelkleurige pallet van de sociale inschakelingseconomie in kaart te brengen. Het uiteindelijke resultaat levert ons de nodige indicatoren op om een profielschets te kunnen maken van de …

Een Monitor Voor De Sociale Inschakelingseconomie In Vlaanderen. Resultatenrapport., Eva Deraedt, Wim Van Opstal

Wim Van Opstal

Dit rapport toont de resultaten van een monitoring- instrument dat ontwikkeld werd om de sociale inschakelingseconomie in Vlaanderen in kaart te brengen. De ontwikkeling van dit instrument vond plaats aan het HIVA (K.U.Leuven), kadert in de onderzoekswerkzaamheden van het Steunpunt Werk en Sociale Economie en werd uitgevoerd in opdracht van de Vlaamse administratie. De opdracht bestond erin bestaande databanken maximaal te valoriseren om zo het veelkleurige pallet van de sociale inschakelingseconomie in kaart te brengen.

Het uiteindelijke resultaat levert ons de nodige indicatoren op om een profielschets te kunnen maken van de ondernemingen die actief zijn in de sociale inschakelingseconomie, …

How Best To Auction Natural Resources, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

I study the design of auctions of natural resources, such as oil or mineral rights. A good auction design promotes both an efficient assignment of rights and competitive revenues for the seller. The structure of bidder preferences and the degree of competition are key factors in determining the best design. With weak competition and additive values, a simultaneous first-price sealed-bid auction may suffice. With more complex value structures, a dynamic auction with package bids, such as the clock-proxy auction, likely is needed to promote the efficiency and revenue objectives. Bidding on production shares, rather than bonuses, typically increases government take …

Auctioning The Digital Dividend, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

I begin by describing some of the problems of the simultaneous ascending auction. Then I present the package clock auction, which retains the benefits, while addressing the weaknesses, of the simultaneous ascending auction. I emphasize two essential elements of the package clock auction: the pricing rule and the activity rule. Along the way, I summarize both experimental and field results with the package clock auction.

If The Large Wta-Wtp Gap For Public Goods Is Real (And There Are Good Reasons To Think So) Conventional Welfare Measures Are Simply Incorrect, Philip E. Graves

PHILIP E GRAVES

A robust finding in economics is that decision-makers often exhibit a much smaller dollar willingness to pay (WTP) for an item than the minimum amount that they claim to be willing to accept (WTA) to part with it. The spread between these two numbers is particularly large for public goods, raising serious public policy concerns regarding which number, if either, is appropriate for valuing such goods. A traditional utility maximizing model is presented here that predicts–as both measures are currently calculated–that WTA will exceed WTP, quite plausibly by a substantial amount for public goods. Moreover, it is shown here that …